Even as the Bitcoin price rises due to favorable macro fundamental data, one chartist sees the crypto currency trending downward in the coming sessions.

The pseudonymous analyst has come up with an extremely bearish scenario for BTC/USD on Monday. He imagines that the pairs 50-day moving average is below its 100-day moving average – which would lead to the formation of a so-called bear cross. This is also known as the death cross among financial experts.

The structure of the Bear Cross as presented by Bitcoin analyst Big Chonis Trading. Source: TradingView.com

Traders usually perceive death crosses as a sign of a significant sellout. Ideally, they observe the 50-period and 200-period MAs to determine the long-term direction for the asset.

Bitcoins daily diagram attempts to log the said 50-100 MA crossover as shown in the diagram below. The analyst for this:

[I] am thinking about the Bitcoin daily chart and how the MA50 almost crossed the MA100 in August, but was bullishly distracted. The rebuild is taking place again. Only this time I expect the cross to happen.

It also discusses the possibility that Bitcoin may fall on its 200-day MA after the formation of the bear cross. The red wave was near the $9,800 mark at the time of writing this article.

What could trigger the sale?

The chartists bearish prediction comes as the crypto currency has shot up. The BTC/USD exchange rate jumped nearly 1 percent in the early Monday session.

This signaled a profitable week for traders ahead, partly due to an uptrend in the safe-haven markets.

Mainstream analysts expect riskier and riskier assets to rise as the US Congress plans to resume talks to pass the second coronavirus stimulus package under the CARES Act.

Two leading US officials (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin) last week stated that an agreement between the Democrats and Republicans is possible before the November presidential election. Pelosi in conversation with CNN:

When I conduct a conversation with the government, it is in good faith. I have faith that Treasury Secretary Mnukhin will represent something that can help us reach a solution, and I believe we can reach an agreement.

Republicans in the Senate failed to pass a $500 billion stimulus package earlier this month due to Democratic objections over its inadequacy.

If the delay continues, this would push investors back into the safety of what they consider their safest asset: the US dollar. The dollar is still inversely correlated with Bitcoin.

The upward-looking Bitcoin outlook

On the other hand, the successful adoption of the second COVID 19 assistance package could help Bitcoin to continue to rise while the US dollar remains under bearish pressure.

Another pseudonymous analyst sees Bitcoin collapsing towards $11,150 if the upward momentum continues. He adds that the crypto-currency will become bullish in the long run, should it manage to hold above this level.

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BTC/USD was traded at $10,853 at the time of writing.