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  <title type="html">HANSARD 1803&amp;ndash;2005 - 10 years ago today</title>
  <updated>2009-11-08T00:05:34+00:00</updated>
  <entry>
    <id>tag:hansard.millbanksystems.com,:Section/2518474</id>
    <published>1999-11-08T00:00:00+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-11-08T00:00:00+00:00</updated>
    <link type="text/html" href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1999/nov/08/lords-amendment-5" rel="alternate"/>
    <title type="html">LORDS AMENDMENT, Lords Sitting of 8 November 1999</title>
    <content type="html">&lt;cite class='section'&gt;HL Deb 08 November 1999 vol 606 cc1181-213&lt;/cite&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04874'&gt;
  
  42 Clause 57, leave out Clause 57.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04875'&gt;
  
  &lt;span class="bold"&gt;The Commons disagreed to this amendment but proposed the following amendments to the words so restored to the Bill&amp;#x2014;&lt;/span&gt;
  &lt;q&gt;42A Page 66, line 4, leave out ("two") and insert ("three").&lt;/q&gt;
  &lt;q&gt;42B Page 66, line 23, leave out ("For this purpose") and insert&amp;#x2014;&lt;/q&gt;
  &lt;q&gt;("(9) In sub-paragraph (8)&amp;#x2014;
  &lt;ul&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;"benefit" includes (in addition to any benefit under Parts II to V of this Act)&amp;#x2014;&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;ol&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;(a) any benefit under Parts VII to XII of this Act, and&lt;/li&gt;
  &lt;li&gt;(b) credits under regulations under section 22(5) above;").&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ol&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;/q&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04876'&gt;
  
  &lt;span class="member"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/span&gt; rose to move, That this House do not insist on their Amendment No. 42 to which the Commons have disagreed, do agree with the Commons in their Amendment No. 42B to the words so restored to the Bill, butdo disagree with the Commons in their Amendment No. 42A to the words so restored to the Bill and do propose Amendment No. 42D in lieu thereof to the words so restored to the Bill&amp;#x2014;
  &lt;q&gt;42D Clause 57, page 66, line 4, leave out ("two") and insert ("seven").&lt;/q&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04877'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_145'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;The noble Lord said&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, in moving the Motion, I shall speak also to my Motion No. 43D. I
      
      shall seek to explain that in a moment. Under the Government's proposals in the Bill no fewer than 310,000 future disabled people will lose their disability and incapacity benefits either in whole or in part. That cannot be justified under any circumstances. The purpose of this debate is to protect disabled people from these unfair impositions, especially as most of them are very severely disabled and poor. Today I do not propose the deletion of the offending clauses dealing with incapacity benefit as I did at Report stage. I do not seek to wreck the Bill. My wish is to reach an honourable compromise with the Government. It is that compromise, and that alone, that we are debating and voting upon today.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government have a long list of achievements in relation to disabled people. Those achievements are impressive and the Government deserve congratulations. But they are absolutely irrelevant to this debate. It is no comfort to a disabled person who is denied his benefit, or sees it slashed, to be told about government generosity in helping some other disabled people. As always, it is the individual who counts. Many new invaluable measures have been initiated by Alistair Darling who is an outstanding Minister and one of the great successes of this Government. But I have no doubt that with these clauses dealing with incapacity benefit he has made a major political miscalculation. I understand that. We all make mistakes. However, the consequences of this miscalculation will damage hundreds of thousands of disabled people in future. Despite all the talk about constitutional propriety and the rights of each House of Parliament&amp;#x2014;some of it loose talk&amp;#x2014;I believe that it is our right and duty to try to persuade the Government to be more reasonable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My compromise proposals are modest but important. They seek to change from three to seven the number of preceding years during which claimants need to have paid the appropriate amount of national insurance contributions to qualify for incapacity benefit. They seek to change the disregard from &amp;#x00A3;85 to &amp;#x00A3;128, which is the level of the disability income guarantee, and to change the taper from 50p to 23p&amp;#x2014;the same as the standard rate of income tax. My proposals would reduce the number of disabled people affected by the Government's original proposal by two-thirds and halve their original intended savings. The proposals do not neuter the effect of the clause, as claimed by the Secretary of State. I believe that to halve the savings which the Government intended to make at the expense of disabled people is a reasonable compromise. The Government would still be able to recoup money from the better off but the poor would be protected.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The question of the starting point of income for the purposes of means-testing&amp;#x2014;the disregard&amp;#x2014;is very important. The Government claim that they have made big concessions by changing the disregard from &amp;#x00A3;50 to &amp;#x00A3;85. I am glad that they have backed away from their original figure of &amp;#x00A3;50, but it is incredible that they suggested it. It would have meant reducing incapacity benefit to someone with an income of as little as &amp;#x00A3;6,123 per annum, which is way below the official poverty
      
      
      line. Although Ministers are fond of quoting the figure at which all incapacity benefit is deducted, the crucial matter for most recipients is where means testing begins. That is the matter on which we should focus.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The concession by the Government to change the disregard to &amp;#x00A3;85 is inadequate. It means that a disabled person will start to lose his incapacity benefit when his total weekly income is an &amp;#x00A3;85 pension, plus &amp;#x00A3;67 incapacity benefit, giving an annual income of &amp;#x00A3;7,943. That level of income&amp;#x2014;approximately &amp;#x00A3;8,000 a year&amp;#x2014;is below the official poverty figure. That is the Government's latest concession for someone who is below the official poverty level. Some people say that as the Government have now made a concession we should be satisfied. These minor concessions are hopelessly inadequate. Any government who penalise people with an income of &amp;#x00A3;8,000 deserve the opposition that they get.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Not only do the Government begin to hit those at a low income level; they hit hard with an incredible deduction rate of 50 per cent. Incapacity benefit is already taxed at 23 per cent. If one combines that with the additional 50 per cent deduction it means that severely disabled people suffer a marginal tax rate of 73 per cent, while the top rate for a millionaire is 40 per cent. That does not make sense. The Government's provisions turn logic on its head. The position should be the reverse. Millionaires should be taxed at the 73 per cent rate and those on incapacity benefit at 40 per cent. That is the situation with which we are faced.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My proposal for a disregard of &amp;#x00A3;128 means that incapacity benefit is reduced when income starts at &amp;#x00A3;10,179 a year. That income is also low, but it is much more reasonable than the Government's figure and there is greater justification for it. The Government's figure of &amp;#x00A3;85 is not index-linked and therefore would be eroded by inflation. My figure is linked to the disability income guarantee and would automatically rise with inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the House of Commons the Secretary of State promised an annual review of the figure but made no effort to put that commitment into the Bill. I know that he cannot bind future governments. However, he could make it more difficult for them to backtrack. he has failed to do so. I am pleased with the other concessions: the exemption of those with the severest disabilities&amp;#x2014;the 20,000 people who get the higher rate care component of the disability living allowance&amp;#x2014;and the estimated 22,000 people who will get the disabled person's tax credit. But although the concessions are welcome, those people are a tiny proportion of the 310,000 I mentioned earlier. So I suggest that too much should not be made of the concessions for this very small number of the most severely disabled people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Regrettably, the Government are trailing red herrings to justify their proposals penalising disabled people. As recently as last Wednesday the Prime Minister complained:
      &lt;q&gt;Since 1979, the number of people claiming incapacity benefit has trebled".&lt;/q&gt;
      He also said:
      
      &lt;q&gt;As a result of our reforms, we will bring the system of incapacity benefit under control".&amp;#x2014;[&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Official Report&lt;/span&gt;, Commons, 3/11/99; co1.289]&lt;/q&gt;
      Let us face those statements head on. I accept, as Ministers allege, that the Tory government encouraged many unemployed people to go off the unemployment register and on to invalidity benefit, as it was then called, before incapacity benefit, via friendly general practitioners who were sympathetic to the people who were disabled. So the figure shot up. I think that that is right; that is probably what happened. But the Tory government turned off the incapacity benefit tap in 1995 and the system changed dramatically.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Since then friendly general practitioners have had no role. Incapacity benefit claimants now have to be certified by two strict Benefits Agency doctors. Some disabled people complain that the tests are too stringent; even paraplegics, double amputees and blind people cannot qualify. That is a measure of how appallingly disabled those recipients are. They are the people we are discussing today.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In 1995, the Tory government also tightened the eligibility test and eliminated the earnings related supplement of &amp;#x00A3;15 week. That was very tough action by the Tory government of that day. But today departmental statistics show clearly that the cost of incapacity benefit is falling. So much for the stories that it is rising out of control. It is not falling just by a small amount. The forecast decline is for as much as &amp;#x00A3;750 million over the lifetime of this Parliament. So contrary to what the Prime Minister said, the system does not need to be brought under control. It is already under control mainly because of the Conservative 1995 Act.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Claims that the numbers of people and the costs of incapacity benefit would escalate without this Bill are therefore groundless. They form no excuse for the Government's proposals. I believe that penalising future disabled people for the alleged sins of the past is hardly a blueprint for welfare justice.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, there are more examples of creating misleading impressions. By the careful use of selective figures, the Government seek to give the impression that vast numbers of incapacity benefit claimants have occupational pensions and are well off. They impel me to visualise thousands of them driving in their Rolls-Royces to pick up their incapacity benefit. But the Government's claim that nearly half of incapacity benefit claimants are in the top 40 per cent of income distribution makes it sound as though they are well off. It is one of the arguments used constantly by Ministers. But a household with average income is also in the top 40 per cent; so the Government's claim is meaningless.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The significant fact is that very few of the people on incapacity benefit are wealthy. Of those with occupational pensions, over 90 per cent have occupational pensions of less than &amp;#x00A3;5,000, or &amp;#x00A3;100 a week. And even with the addition of incapacity benefit of &amp;#x00A3;3,000 a year, the vast majority hover around the poverty level. Those are the undisputed facts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      The Government are also trying to create an impression that these cuts to the benefits of poor people are essential for modernising the welfare state. Only the naive and the credulous could believe that. Regrettably, the Government's proposal for modernising incapacity benefit in the future is to go back to Michael Portillo's proposal of means testing incapacity benefit&amp;#x2014;a proposal rejected by his fellow Right-winger, Peter Lilley, as being too difficult for disabled people to stomach. These again are the facts. In looking to the future and in modernising, the Government are harking back to a past which was rejected on reasonable grounds.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It would be highly significant for the future of the welfare state if a means test, such as that to be applied to incapacity benefit, were to be extended to the retirement pension. Is it or is it not to be so extended? Ministers have made announcements. We are now informed officially that there will be no means test for retired pensioners. That is an important and welcome statement by Ministers. But in the light of that statement, perhaps Ministers can explain to the House why those people leaving the workforce because severe disability makes them incapable of work are to be treated so differently and so much more badly than those leaving because of age. What is the difference? Why should those who are leaving because of disability be treated so much more badly than those leaving because of age? I can see no difference. I am open to correction but to me it is a clear case of discrimination against disabled people. Perhaps Ministers can enlighten the House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The other assurance that would be welcome is a commitment that the Government have no intention of getting rid of incapacity benefit altogether. Ministers say they want to relate incapacity benefit to recent work. So they intend to deny incapacity benefit, except for a tiny category, to all those who have had the misfortune to be unemployed for three years before claiming. They will not receive a single penny of incapacity benefit if they have been so unemployed. But there are various depressed areas in Britain where it has been virtually impossible to obtain a job for many years. I have spoken recently to MPs from Wales and elsewhere. They say that it is impossible to obtain any kind of job in their areas. It is the fate of many depressed areas in Britain. So why should disabled people who live in those areas be denied the benefit given to others in prosperous areas? It is what the noble Earl, Lord Russell, called the geographical lottery&amp;#x2014;except that in this lottery there are no winners, only losers. There is no "right" figure to provide. We can only make our best judgements. However, I believe that seven years is a more reasonable figure because in some areas people can easily be seeking work for that period.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      To deny disabled people their incapacity benefit on those dubious grounds is bad enough. But the real injustice becomes clear when we consider that, in many cases, those claimants have paid their national insurance contributions for some 10, 20 or 30 years. They have paid in good faith and naturally they expect
      
      the benefits, but the Government shift the goalposts and now say that if you do not meet these conditions, you will not receive benefits. How can that be justified? That is a reasonable question and I do not believe there is quite such a reasonable answer.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have no doubt that the Government have lost the moral argument and are now trying to turn the debate into one on the constitution. Some Members of this House who opposed my proposals complain that the House of Commons has already voted on them and that I put the whole Bill at risk. They should know that that is nonsense. The fact is that the other place voted only on my amendments to delete the damaging clauses and has not voted on the compromise proposals which we are debating today. The House of Commons will only be able to vote on the compromise proposals if this Motion is carried today. If we do not vote for these today, we deprive the House of Commons of the opportunity to vote on these proposals.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As for the allegation that I put the whole Bill at risk, there are precedents for this House returning Bills to the other place and for doing so time and time again. There is no question of the Bill being lost, at least not today, and it is right that the other place should be made fully aware of the cross-party views of this House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government are saying that it is time for this Bill, including these deplorable proposals, to be put on the statute book. I suggest to the contrary. It is time for this House to assert its view; to challenge this unjustified attack on disabled people; to declare that the Government's comment, "No compromise &amp;#x2014;full stop" is a betrayal of the dialogue of democracy, and to urge the Government, even at this late stage, to think again. I commend the amendment to the House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Moved, That this House do not insist on their Amendment No. 42 to which the Commons have disagreed, do agree with the Commons in their Amendment No. 42B to the words so restored to the Bill, but do disagree with the Commons in their Amendment No. 42A to the words so restored to the Bill and do propose Amendment No. 42D in lieu thereof to the words so restored to the Bill.&amp;#x2014;(&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/span&gt;.)
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04878'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_146'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/earl-of-dalkeith-3' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/earl-of-dalkeith-3" title="Earl of Dalkeith"&gt;The Duke of Buccleuch and Queensberry&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I wish to support the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Ashley of Stoke, in his usual characteristically compelling way. The noble Lord, Lord Ashley, and the noble Lord, Lord Morris of Manchester, have rightly earned a nation-wide reputation as the most respected and knowledgeable champions of disabled people. There are no two people whose honour and integrity I more greatly admire. If they had continued to speak from the green Benches in the other place, I doubt very much whether we would have found ourselves in the mess that we are in today.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I can honestly say that, in my 39&amp;#x00BE; years in Parliament&amp;#x2014;partly in another place, partly in here&amp;#x2014;for the past 25 years trying, with so many other of my
      
      
      admirable noble friends, to secure a fair deal for disabled people, this is my saddest moment. It is not because this is my last utterance in Parliament but because of the monstrously unjust actions of this Government, made only very marginally better by last week's concessions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One of the most worrying aspects of this episode is the further proof of the executive's ever-increasing stranglehold over parliamentary democracy. The most remarkable point about last week's rebellion in another place was not that so many defied the pressure of the Whips but that so many succumbed to it. I hope I might be forgiven for thinking that, if the Government's supporters had half as much feeling for disabled people as, they claim to have for foxes, the offending clauses in this Bill would have been strangled at birth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If a Conservative government had behaved like this, there would have been outraged protests and demonstrations throughout the land. If the Government persist in restricting and resisting the modest offering of the noble Lord, Lord Ashley of Stoke, they will have every reason to dread the judgment of the ballot box in 2002.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On arrival here, one receives a warm handshake from the Lord Chancellor. I wonder whether, on one's enforced retirement from here, one receives a hug from the Leader of the House.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04879'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_147'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-brian-rix' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-brian-rix" title="Mr Brian Rix"&gt;Lord Rix&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, since this Bill was last under discussion in this House, there has been much talk of brokering a compromise on the vexed question of how to reform disability benefits. Scarcely two weeks ago, I signed my name in support of the very proposals which are before us again this afternoon. However, for all the talk of compromise both here and in another place, it is easy to forget that thus far neither House has actually been given an opportunity to accept or to reject these compromises.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Commentators such as Simon Jenkins, who in &lt;span class="italic"&gt;The Times&lt;/span&gt; last Friday urged the noble Lord, Lord Ashley of Stoke, to accept that it is time to give up, are quite mistaken. The debate may be well rehearsed but the options are only just being laid out before us. Only when this House and another place are given a real choice and are offered a viable alternative to the Government's cuts-led agenda, can we say that true consensus has been reached.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Of course, outside this House, we heard the nonsensical view that to lay down a choice here today somehow challenges the democratic status of the other place. How can this be so when the "Lord Ashley/Dr Berry" compromise has never been tested in the other place? There are 8.5 million disabled people in the United Kingdom whom noble Lords on the Government Benches&amp;#x2014;for instance, the noble Lords, Lord Ashley of Stoke and Lord Morris of Manchester&amp;#x2014;have endeavoured to represent over many years, as have a steadfast number of hereditary Peers from all sides of the House, some now fortuitously restored to us including the noble Earl, Lord Russell, the noble Lords, Lord Addington, Lord
      
      Swinfen and Lord Astor of Hever and, from the Cross Benches, our very own, the indomitable noble Baroness, Lady Darcy de Knayth, as well as a mere lifer, me.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our postbags are still full of letters from anxious disabled people. We are duty bound to act on these concerns. Why should there be any question over our mandate to attempt sensibly to revise the Bill when fewer than half the Members in another place consented to the Government's own proposals?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Time and again I have stood up in this House and welcomed measures in this Bill which offer more help to young severely disabled people. As president of Mencap, I acknowledge that those who are born with a severe learning disability are likely to be better off under the new dispensation. I do not doubt the Government's commitment to this group and believe they have acted in an exemplary fashion in seeking to improve protection for youngsters in further and higher education and seeking to ensure that the new ONE service really is a service for disabled people. But on incapacity benefit, while I recognise the Government have moved, I do not believe that tightening contribution conditions to three years offers disabled people adequate protection and I do not believe that hitting disabled people living below the poverty line with a means test in order to finance increases for other disabled people is morally justifiable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As we have heard, the noble Lord, Lord Ashley of Stoke, is advancing a realistic compromise to government proposals. Instead of denying benefit to severely disabled people who have been out of employment for a mere three years, seven years at least guards against penalising those who have made every effort to find suitable work before reconciling themselves to the limitations of their disability, or those who have faced unemployment in difficult economic conditions in advance of the onset of their disability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As the other proposal stands, as your Lordships have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, means testing incapacity benefit will hit individuals living below the poverty line, and will withdraw benefit with a taper which is harsher than anything imposed on millionaires&amp;#x2014;some of whom are sitting on your Lordships' Benches&amp;#x2014;within our tax system. To start reducing benefit instead at &amp;#x00A3;128 per week, and with a taper of 23 pence in the pound, is not generous; i t is realistic.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It may be worth reminding the House that one of the Government's new indicators in the first annual poverty audit is a reduction in the number of working age people living in families claiming income support for long periods of time. If incapacity benefit is tightened in the way the Minister proposes, and severe disablement allowance is abolished, the Government will find that increasingly hard to achieve.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the same report, the Secretary of State for Social Security claims that,
      &lt;q&gt;the right policies are the policies that work".&lt;/q&gt;
      He pledges,
      
      
      &lt;q&gt;to continue to listen to people on the ground, including people who are themselves living in poverty, to make sure our policies are having the right effect".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      I urge the Government to look again at what they have heard from disabled individuals and their advocates within the 500 strong organisations represented on the Disability Benefits Consortium who are key partners in delivering the fight against poverty and are aware of the situation on the ground.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Furthermore, the report of the National Policy Forum to this year's Labour Party conference claims to "build upon the platform" of getting more help to the most severely disabled people. Perhaps the Minister can reassure the House today that threats to jeopardise this support are empty.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It also strikes me as extraordinary that, if newspaper reports are true, the Government have threatened to trade welfare reform against Lords reform. We are talking about the lives of hundreds of thousands of disabled people, many of whom are among the poorest in our society. Decisions about their future should be taken in all conscience and in a climate of utmost seriousness, not on the basis of political calculation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Despite all the help that the Government have given to people with a learning disability, as well as those affected by SERPS&amp;#x2014;for which I am most grateful&amp;#x2014;and despite my high regard for the care and debating skills of the Minister, the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, should the House divide on this matter I shall have no option than to vote with my conscience to support the fair and balanced compromises of the noble Lord, Lord Ashley. That will then offer Members of another place a genuine alternative to what is currently on offer from the Government. I urge other noble Lords to do the same.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04880'&gt;
  
  5 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-alf-morris' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-alf-morris" title="Mr Alf Morris"&gt;Lord Morris of Manchester&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I was deeply moved, as I know my noble friend Lord Ashley will have been, by the speech of the noble Duke, the Duke of Buccleuch. As ever, he was most kind and spoke as persuasively as he was brief and eloquent. he will be very deeply missed in all parts of your Lordships' House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Again, I also pay tribute to my noble friend Lord Ashley for his constancy and the clarity of his advocacy in moving his amendment. As he and I are reminded by our postbags every day now, their opposition to means testing incapacity benefit and changing the contribution conditions for entitlement have united the major organisations of disabled people as never before.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Neither my noble friend nor I approach this debate with any feeling of personal animus towards those of our colleagues who were content with the Secretary of State's original proposal in the debate in this House on 13th October. Nor is there any animus on our part towards DSS Ministers. Certainly the Secretary of State knows of the warmth and kindliness of my intentions towards him personally. For as Chairman of the Managing Trustees of the Parliamentary
      
      Contributory Pension Fund, elected by the House of Commons as a whole, I looked after Alistair's own pension for 10 of the past 12 years with undeviating concern for his interests.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The plea I shall make to him today is that of a committed supporter of this administration. My purpose is not to hurt the Government, but simply to do whatever I can further to improve the Bill in the interests of disabled people and their carers. Much apart from wanting to hurt the Government, I very much want them to succeed and passionately believe that they are more likely to do so if all of us speak with total candour.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Friendship is not friendship without candour and it is as a candid friend that I ask the Government to look again not just at the detail but also the principle involved in the proposed changes to incapacity benefit. The Secretary of State told the BBC last week that, while he had moved on "points of detail" he would not water down the principle on which his proposals were based. But how principled was it to encourage tomorrow's pensioners to save for their retirement today and, at the same time, try to impose on disabled people who have already saved for their retirement, over 30 or more years, a cut in benefit of 50 per cent of any personal pension over &amp;#x00A3;50 or, as is now proposed, &amp;#x00A3;85 a week?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Ministers have spoken in parliamentary debates, as I also have done, of those who will benefit from the Bill. More especially I welcome the help proposed for 20 to 24 year-olds in full-time education. But we cannot ignore the losers under the Bill as drafted, one estimate of whose ultimate number is that it will total 310,000 disabled people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government have now created the Disability Rights Commission for which my Civil Rights (Disabled Persons) Bill first made detailed provision in December 1991. Naturally I am delighted. This and the appointment of Bert Massie to chair the commission have been welcomed all across Parliament. It was, however, Bert Massie, commenting on this Bill in &lt;span class="italic"&gt;The Times&lt;/span&gt;, who put it to the Government that:
      &lt;q&gt;cuts in entitlement to Incapacity Benefit do not force people to work if they cannot do so: they just make such people poorer".&lt;/q&gt;
      Even more to the point, he added:
      &lt;q&gt;If the problem is that people not entitled to Incapacity Benefit are receiving it because of the policy of the last Government &amp;#x2026; the answer is to identify those people and to improve 'the gateway' to Incapacity Benefit, not to refuse it to those to need it.".&lt;/q&gt;
      Labour Ministers rightly condemn the Major government for their encouragement of unjustified incapacity benefit claims from unemployed people to cut an ever-lengthening dole queue. But the proposals now before Parliament do not dispossess those who allegedly ought not to have the benefit. Instead they make life harder for disabled people who, having paid national insurance for a contributory benefit in good faith over many years while in work, could now lose a substantial part of the amount for which they thought they were insured. Whatever else this might be called, it is not a triumph for high principle. Indeed, the principle involved is no less unwholesome than the
      
      
      detail. In the words of Sir Peter Large, than whom no severely disabled person is more widely respected here at Westminster, why on earth should we have to,
      &lt;q&gt;take from people in need to give to those in greater need&lt;/q&gt;
      when the rate of increase in total social security spending has already been cut by half of what it was under the Major government?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Again, why should we now cut the benefits of people who become unfit for work if they have saved, year by year, for very modest personal pensions at a time when the Chancellor of the Exchequer insists that the economy has never been stronger nor Britain more prosperous?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Most disabled people are appreciative, as I am, of helpful new steps taken in their interests by Ministers all across Whitehall and, like me, they want the Government to succeed. But they say that the proposals on incapacity benefit confuse reform with retreat. They are not resistant to change, for there are many reforms disabled people want urgently to see. They want ministerial preoccupation to be with value as well as cost and disability benefits to be commended to the taxpayer not as acts of compassion, but of enlightened self-interest and moral right.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In candid and thus&amp;#x2014;as I said&amp;#x2014;true friendship, I ask my ministerial colleagues to reflect again and to respond positively 10 this amendment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It was in that spirit that my good and right honourable friend Tom Clarke spoke and voted on the Government's revised proposals in another place. And let us all remember, on this side of the House, that it was Tom Clarke who led for Labour in explaining our policies for disabled people at the general election. In the House of Commons last week, in a speech of high distinction, he kept faith impeccably with what he told the electorate on our behalf. Let us also keep faith today.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04882'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_150'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-alan-campbell-1' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-alan-campbell-1" title="Mr Alan Campbell"&gt;Lord Campbell of Alloway&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, a wholly compelling case has been made out by all noble Lords who have spoken from their expertise, which is acknowledged not only in your Lordships' House, but throughout the whole country. Yet it is reported that honourable Members of another place have threatened to withdraw the Weatherill amendment if we insist tonight. If so, that threat is in grave contempt of your Lordships' House, and it is a slight upon the status and dignity of the bicameral process. It is a threat to which this House should not defer.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Indeed, no second Chamber, however constituted or reconstituted, should be deprived of the option to decline to approve repugnant legislation, in particular on humanitarian grounds such as obtain in this case. As at present constituted, the House acts upon its honour to protect the interests of this vulnerable minority against oppression, for the reasons so eloquently explained by the noble Lord, Lord Ashley of Stoke. The Parliament Acts make provision for another place to have its will in due course if that is what its Members wish.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      The business of government has, as is wholly predictable, again hit the buffers towards the end of the Parliament. No acceptable accommodation has as yet been afforded, and as I understand it, none is on offer. Many years ago, the noble Viscount, Lord Ingleby, who sat on the Cross Benches, gave me a book inscribed with gratitude for my work on the Floor of the House on behalf of the disabled. Therefore it would not have been possible for me today to sacrifice their interests on the altar of political convenience at the behest of the usual channels. This Government evince but scant concern for minorities. Their protection has now become the urgent obligation of your Lordships' House, and, I hope, the business of the Loyal Opposition.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      To defend those unable to defend themselves from unjustified attack may not be charged as "wanton confrontation". If so charged, it would not be so readily understood by the majority of the people.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04883'&gt;
  
  5.15 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04884'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_152'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell" title="Mr Conrad Russell"&gt;Earl Russell&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is one of the annual rituals of this place that, come November, Ministers facing the exertions of the ping-pong season get an attack of constitutional heavy breathing. Like other heavy breathing, it is often done down the phone anonymously and no one in this Chamber is accountable for it. I believe therefore that I need to clear the air a little.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So far as I know, no one anywhere in this Chamber questions the supremacy of the elected Chamber. That is true both as a matter of fact&amp;#x2014;the Parliament Acts see to that&amp;#x2014;and as a matter of justice. What is at issue between us, and has been an issue in debates for as long as I have been a Member of this House, is whether that supremacy is arbitrary in that another place, whenever it wishes, can say, "I am going to have my way, so there!", or whether that supremacy is governed by the rule of law as set out by another place itself in the Parliament Acts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What is set out in the Parliament Acts is not a procedure simply for another place to be able to insist, but a procedure that requires the Secretary of State to share with us the responsibility for getting his Bill on to the statute book; to bargain, to negotiate, to compromise and to seek to reach agreement. That is a perfectly fair burden to which to subject any legislator.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This Chamber is not in the business of stopping Whipped government Bills. Whenever any Whipped government Bill fails to become law, we may say that a political misjudgment has taken place. What remains a matter of debate is whose that political misjudgment might be. The answer is usually "both" when that happens, because even if one believes that the other person has been totally unreasonable, it may be a misjudgment to fail to foresee his unreason. Therefore, I hope that we shall not have the rather petulant four year-old's "shan't play" noises that we have been hearing from time to time, but that we have serious scope for a reasonable discussion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Furthermore, I hope that I shall not hear any more of this mysterious threat to the Weatherill amendment. I agree with the noble Baroness the Lord Privy Seal
      
      
      that that is not the way to proceed. It is a proposal for mutual assured destruction. On that occasion, the acronym is particularly appropriate! In any case, if any of us were to change our policy because of a threat of that sort, we should not deserve to stay here in the first place.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall not repeat my arguments in detail against either of the clauses that we are debating. I understand that they are grouped together. I have argued that the first one, on contribution records, is unfair to groups which do not have an equal right to make contributions: people in areas of high unemployment; people from ethnic minorities; and people who suffer progressive disabilities, such as, for example, deafness, which interfere with their ability to work before they finally become eligible for incapacity benefit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I simply do not understand why the Government have insisted on this clause. It does not make any sense to me. When I listened to Mr Rooker, the Minister of State, replying to the debate on Wednesday evening, all I heard was the equivalent of the famous marginal note in the UN delegate's speech, "Weak point, shout".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I cannot hear any clear principle. I have read what the Minister and the Secretary of State have said. They seem to be desperately worried about people who have had long periods of unemployment and then claim incapacity benefit. I simply do not understand why that worries them so much. The Minister has said that there is no question of fraud. I thank her for that. I am not certain how far that sentiment applies throughout the Government. At the last Prime Minister's Question Time, when my right honourable friend Mr Kennedy asked the Prime Minister why he insisted on this, the Prime Minister replied with a figure from the Green Paper claiming a threefold increase in the number claiming incapacity benefit since 1981.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      First, if that was the Prime Minister's reasoning, he is locking the stable door after the horse has been stolen; the horse was stolen by the previous government in the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/social-security-incapacity-for-work-act-1994"&gt;Social Security (Incapacity for Work) Act 1994&lt;/a&gt;. I am sure that the House will be relieved to hear that I shall not enter into a debate on that point now. However, it put a stop to that increase in the figures which have since decreased.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Behind much of this debate is the concern of people to explain the increase both in incapacity benefit and in claims for disability benefit as a whole. Many people have been inclined to claim that there has been fraud. Attempts to find it have always come to nothing. The Minister has most generously confirmed that in the case of BIP, in which her record is an extremely honourable one. The recently-published DSS research report no. 94 found that people recognised as disabled in the past few years were recognised according to the same standard as would have applied many years ago, although the numbers so recognised had increased. The incapacity benefit leavers tracking study found that those who had been unemployed before claiming incapacity benefit were less likely to become employed afterwards.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      The study also found&amp;#x2014;this is a very interesting finding&amp;#x2014;that people's self-perception with regard to their own health was a more accurate predictor of their employment future than the incapacity all-work test. In fact, people are probably better judges of their own health than are the Government. I am not particularly surprised to hear that, but I believe that there are those who would be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Therefore, why should there be such an increase in the number of people claiming disability benefits? I believe that this point is crucial to the whole of our argument. First, there is, thank God, far less stigma attached to having a disability than there was even 10 or 20 years ago. Therefore, people are willing to make a claim and to accept the label of being a disabled person when 20 years ago they would not have been. I can only regard that as a good thing. Secondly&amp;#x2014;and this is a finding of the incapacity benefit leavers tracking study&amp;#x2014;in the tightened conditions of the labour market, employers are more likely to resist employing people with lowered capacity. Therefore, those people have a greater need to claim incapacity benefit. Thirdly, it is well known that illness is a consequence of unemployment. That case is documented at length in the Acheson report; I do not need to do so now.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Acheson report has also found that, although mortality has fallen, morbidity has not fallen in proportion, especially among the poorer part of the population. The poverty/ill health link is much clearer than it was before. Again, that is relevant to the number of claims. We also have better diagnosis in relation to mental health illness, depression, and back pain, which accounts for one in every seven days lost from work through sickness. We have the car culture which both makes people take less exercise and puts their backs in uncomfortable postures. Here, I rely on the authority of the orthopaedic surgeon who many years ago treated my own back.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn to the other clause concerning occupational pensions. At least I understand what the Government are doing although I do not accept it. They argue that they should concentrate help where it is needed most. That is a good principle, but even good principles cannot exist in monopoly. They have to share the world with other principles. Here, they conflict with other principles. First, they conflict with the contributory principle. That is not absolutely sacrosanct, but anyone who proposes to alter the conditions of a contributory benefit must shoulder the burden of proof. That is a heavy burden.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Secondly, what the Government are doing contradicts the need to encourage private provision for pensions. That is an increasingly urgent need of which the Government are well aware and to which a considerable part of this Bill is devoted. I cannot see that it encourages people to invest money in private pensions if they know that if they become sick, 73 per cent of what they put in will be lost to the Treasury. That does not promote the usual motive for private provision.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      Finally, what the Secretary of State has done is not equipped for uprating. The uprating is discretionary, not of right. The Minister knows what has happened to the uprating of capital limits for income support, which are equally discretionary. They have not been uprated since 1988. That is the box into which the Secretary of State proposes to put incapacity benefit for those in receipt of occupational pensions. That box is a coffin. We should not put it there.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04885'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_153'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-helena-kennedy' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-helena-kennedy" title="Ms Helena Kennedy"&gt;Baroness Kennedy of The Shaws&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, when this matter was last before this House, I voted with the Government. I did so because I was reassured that the Secretary of State was looking again at the figures and I was given to understand that concessions would be made which would allay the concerns of many of us on this issue. I know the Secretary of State to be a man with a good heart and a good head. Like my noble friend Lord Ashley, I consider him to be one of the great talents in our Cabinet. However, it has been a source of great disappointment to me and to others that he has not accepted the compromise of my noble friend Lord Ashley.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Like my noble friend Lord Morris, I am a friend of government and I speak to government as a friend. The Secretary of State has raised the level of his means test. However, even that rate fails to take full account of the huge costs incurred by many disabled people. The point about disease and frailty is that even the most powerful people are humbled by it: by not being able to do what one once could and having to rely on others for even small assistance. The depression that comes so often with incapacity creates even greater dependency. Incapacity can come to any of us: chronic arthritis striking down a school teacher or a secretary; an early stroke ending a career in nursing; neurological disease throwing out of work a father of young children.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In his arguments, the Secretary of State has said that if the amendment of my noble friend Lord Ashley is passed, single people could have an early retirement pension of up to &amp;#x00A3;23,000 before entirely losing their incapacity benefit. he went on to state that a parent with two children and a dependent spouse, for example, could have a pension of something over &amp;#x00A3;30,000 before being cut off, as though those sums were extraordinarily high.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The mistake we are making is in turning our welfare system into the American equivalent, which becomes no more than a meagre safety net in which the majority of citizens have no stake. I happen to accept that the universal principle may have to be surrendered in the face of changed circumstances. It was for that reason that I argued for the introduction of fees for higher education but that there would be a means test, set comparatively high, for those who would have to pay.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When replacing thresholds, I believe that they have to be drawn at something other than a mean and miserable level. The reason why we must ensure that thresholds are not drawn too low is because we need to maintain commitment by the many to the welfare
      
      state. The risk in going down the American road is that the majority have no vested interest in protecting the welfare system; they are no longer stakeholders.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have every sympathy with our ministerial colleagues who wrestle with the difficult problem of welfare reform. I believe in welfare reform, but I also believe in welfare. When we developed the welfare state in this country, at its heart was the belief that when calamity struck citizens who had contributed to the commonweal, they in their turn should be sustained by the commonweal; not with cap in hand or in ways which removed human dignity but in ways which were decent and fair.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I cannot understand how we can justify a withdrawal rate of 73p in the pound&amp;#x2014;50p by the means test and 23p in tax&amp;#x2014;for severely disabled people. Yet, as we have heard the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, say, the top rate for millionaires remains at 40p in the pound. How can we have that kind of disparity? What are we thinking about? What is happening to our values? Are we forgetting who we are? What does "social justice" really mean?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is much in the Bill that is good and I would not like to see it fall. However, I cannot vote with my Government on this issue.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04886'&gt;
  
  5.30 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04887'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_155'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6" title="Mr David Davies"&gt;Lord Davies of Coity&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04888'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_156'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-ian-stewart-1' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-ian-stewart-1" title="Mr Ian Stewart"&gt;Lord Stewartby&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I shall be brief. I hope that the noble Lord will be patient for a few moments. I am minded to go into the Lobby with the noble Lord. Lord Ashley, this evening, particularly on one point. I refer to the level of disregard. It seems to me that although the Government have improved the situation from their original proposals, it is still very much on the mean side.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The only other point I make is that the more I listen to debates on this subject, the more it strikes me that incapacity benefit is not well suited to being a general source of "top-up" for income for disabled persons. We have to accept that the structure of welfare benefits generally, and particularly those available to disabled people, is complicated. In the years when one had to advise constituents in another place about benefits and their relationship to each other, particularly for the disabled, I found myself constantly confused and wondering whether I was giving correct advice.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that if the Government face a set-back on this issue, they will not be deterred from reconsidering the relationship between the benefits. In particular, I hope that they will come to a view about whether incapacity benefit should be specifically related to work and the inability of a person because of disability to undertake work, or whether there is a need for a more general supplement of a kind which would assist many of those who appear to be potentially disadvantaged by the proposals introduced by the Government.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall say no more than that. However, it seems to me that many of the arguments which the Government may be using to defend their own position are narrowly focused on the purpose of incapacity benefit
      
      
      whereas many of the arguments of those who have put the contrary case are a recognition that the incomes of disabled people, particularly those who are out of work and may have been so for a long time, are modest. The structure needs to be looked at to see how that can be remedied.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04889'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_157'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6" title="Mr David Davies"&gt;Lord Davies of Coity&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, when dealing with an issue as emotionally charged as this, it is not difficult to support what is seen to be popular. However, we all know that it is often much more difficult to support what is believed to be right.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Some may say that this part of the debate is a watershed, a moment of truth or perhaps a crunch time. As we are likely to have other occasions such as this before 17th November, I feel that such descriptions are not appropriate. However, it would to apt to say, like the Americans, "We are now playing hardball".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I say that because we have now reached a stage in this House where we are challenging a government elected by the British people to a point of unjustifiable conflict. We are perilously close to doing that in two ways. One is in respect of the constitutional role of this House; the other in respect of the Bill and the amendments to it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As concerns the first point, let us remind ourselves of why we are here. Indeed, we say it so often that we should have it, if not in our hearts, in the forefront of our heads. We are here to scrutinise and revise; to point out to the Government errors in proposed legislation; to nit-pick; to cross "t"s and dot "i"s and to challenge, but only to a certain point. The moment we go beyond that point we become dangerously close to abusing our powers, our authority and the privilege which we have been given to contribute to the lawmaking process of this land and to its people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If this continues, sooner or later it will become more and more evident that this country can no longer tolerate an unelected House holding the people's chosen government to ransom. Up to this point, this House has made its views known. The Government have considered those views. As we know, they have responded. Enough is enough. Now is the time to cease this protest. The whole House should support the decision of the elected Government. For those reasons alone, the Government should be supported at this stage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, it is also important to address the Bill and the amendments. I shall deal with that in two ways. First, I shall say why my noble friends on this side of the House should support the Government, and secondly, why other noble Lords, particularly the Official Opposition, should also support the Government.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have spent most of my adult life conducting wage negotiations with employers. Never once did I obtain all I wanted, but I never expected to. Once in the realms of negotiation, you recognise that you have to compromise. I knew that I could not secure satisfaction for every demand that every one of my
      
      members wished to make; but I sought to secure as much as I could for as many as I could, and, at the same time, to ensure that all those I represented sacrificed the least, in terms of both wages and conditions and job security. That was a discipline I set myself on each and every occasion. That is not universally true throughout the whole of the trade union movement. I am sure we can all remember the miners' strike of 1984&amp;#x2013;85 when the refusal of the mineworkers' leader to compromise resulted in hardship and agony for so many miners and their families as well as for so many others.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So, what is the relevance of that to the debate on this Bill? I shall tell the House. The Government listened to the arguments advanced by this House; they made concessions and amended the Bill accordingly. Now the Bill, as acknowledged by my noble friend Lord Ashley, is generally a good one. Therefore it should be accepted. Although it may not provide all that is wanted, the vast majority of the Bill is good.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I say to my noble friends that this Bill provides far more benefit for far more people&amp;#x2014;the vast majority being among the most disadvantaged&amp;#x2014;than the numbers the amendment seeks to protect. Therefore, if this Bill falls far more people will lose compared with those who will gain because of the insistence on pushing this amendment to a Division and winning. I hope my noble friend will withdraw his amendment. If not, I urge all my other noble friends on this side of the Chamber to vote against him.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn now to noble Lords opposite. I appreciate that the role of the Opposition is to oppose. That they have done. But there comes a time in this House when that opposition must cease and I believe that that time has now come. If that is ignored, then in my view the Opposition are no longer acting as a responsible opposition. From their records and from the statements made by the Tory spokesman on social security at this year's Conservative Party conference, it is clear that this Bill is not to the liking of the party opposite, despite the advantages it will bring to many people. So it would seem that any support given to the amendment of my noble friend Lord Ashley by the Opposition will only be for the purpose of jettisoning the whole Bill. That being so, it is a very undignified stance. Indeed, it would be contrary to the understanding reached in respect of the Government's legislative programme when agreeing the Weatherill amendment.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04890'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_158'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell" title="Mr Conrad Russell"&gt;Earl Russell&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, has the noble Lord forgotten that these proposals were turned down by the Conservatives when they were in office?
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04891'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_159'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-davies-6" title="Mr David Davies"&gt;Lord Davies of Coity&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is true that they were turned down. It was put forward by Mr. Portillo and turned down by Mr Lilley. I am wondering whether it was with an eye on the general election that they were turned down at that time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As I said at the outset, the Government have been driven to play hard ball. In the circumstances, no one could blame this Government, if their proposed
      
      
      legislation on welfare reform and pensions is further frustrated, for being less than forgiving in the wake of such destruction.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04892'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_160'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-susan-cunliffe-lister' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-susan-cunliffe-lister" title="Ms Susan Cunliffe-Lister"&gt;Baroness Masham of Ikon&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I take this opportunity to pay tribute to the noble Duke, the Duke of Buccleuch and Queensberry, for all the support he has given disabled people within and without Parliament. For years the noble Duke has been president of RADAR (the Royal Association of Disability and Rehabilitation). Many people thank him for all he has done.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Many people are becoming concerned about the meanness of spirit of the Government towards unfortunate people who have to struggle to survive. I should like the Minister to say how much it will cost to administer the means test to these severely disabled people. They will feel let down unless the House supports them tonight in asking the Government to try and understand their needs more closely than they have so far been able to do.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04893'&gt;
  
  5.45 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04894'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_162'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-roger-eady' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-roger-eady" title="Mr Roger Eady"&gt;Lord Swinfen&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Coity, suggested that, in what we may be proposing to do this evening, this House could be exceeding its constitutional duty. I take issue with him on that point. The House in fact is performing its constitutional duty. If this House feels that the other place should think again, it has a duty to ask it to think again. The noble Lord has not been in this House as long as I have. I can remember that when this party was in government, the House asked the government of that day&amp;#x2014;the Members in the other place&amp;#x2014;to think again.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It may be unwise; it may be inadvisable to try and delay matters. I do not know how difficult it is to arrange government business&amp;#x2014;I have never been in the position of trying to do so. But as far as I am aware there is no constitutional reason why Prorogation, which I gather is planned for Thursday, could not be postponed. I am sure that the Government will want to get their Bill through and I for one do not want to stop them, but it may be necessary for this Bill to be amended yet again. If the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, takes this matter to a Division, I am strongly inclined this evening to vote with him in his Lobby.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have one question for the Minister. Why, when the Government are attempting to get people to produce their own private pension arrangements to back up what is acknowledged to be a rather low state pension, are they means-testing disabled people for incapacity benefit which is exactly the same sum as the state pension?
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04895'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_163'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-davina-ingrams' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-davina-ingrams" title="Ms Davina Ingrams"&gt;Baroness Darcy de Knayth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I shall be extremely brief. I support these amendments. It is important that there is some method of uprating, as the noble Earl, Lord Russell, clearly demonstrated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I reiterate something that the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, said when he so persuasively introduced these amendments; that is, the other place has not been
      
      asked its opinion on the compromise amendments. In any case, the Bill has to go back to the other place because of the successful amendment of my noble friend Lady Strange.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04896'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_164'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-corbett-1' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-corbett-1" title="Mr John Corbett"&gt;Lord Rowallan&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I apologise for taking up the time of the House after one and a quarter hours on this debate. However, I want strongly to speak on it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When I was eight I had polio and was paralysed for 18 months. Luckily, I recovered. So I know what it is like to be disabled. Many more, 8.5 million people, as the noble Lord, Lord Rix, pointed out, certainly know what it is like to be disabled. The National Health Service looks after everybody equally. So should the social security system. That is the problem with which we are dealing today.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My father was a double amputee. As a result, I have worked for the past 10 years for all those who suffer from various disabilities. I am a life member of the Limbless Association; I am a director of SANE, the mental health charity; I am a patron of Depression Alliance, which deals with people who suffer from depression. Sadly, I shall not be able to do that too much longer from within your Lordships' House, but I shall continue my work outside.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The disabled did not choose to be disabled. Unfortunately, they are disabled. They must be treated fairly in all ways. Because I have lost my franchise to be here, I shall not become a hooligan; I shall not vote against this Government willy-nilly until Wednesday or Thursday. But in this case I feel it is the duty of this House to ask the other place to look seriously at this problem, which has not been debated there. It is the duty of this House to revise extreme measures of any government. We have done that successfully for many years. I urge your Lordships, if this matter comes to a vote&amp;#x2014;I feel sure it will&amp;#x2014;to support the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, so that it can be seriously examined again.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04897'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_165'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins" title="Mr Terence Higgins"&gt;Lord Higgins&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, anyone speaking in your Lordships' House in a debate on the disabled, which has had as participants those who have already spoken this afternoon, must do so with great diffidence. I speak not only of the noble Lords, Lord Ashley, Lord Rix, Lord Morris, and my noble friend the Duke of Buccleuch, but also of the noble Baronesses, Lady Masham and Lady Darcy. They have devoted their lives, in large measure, to helping the disabled. Therefore on this occasion I speak with great diffidence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I may remind your Lordships that we are now dealing with two sets of amendments, which have been grouped together. One group relates to the effect on the disabled if the restrictions on contribution requirements imposed by the Government are carried through, and the second group deals with the question of whether the disabled should have their benefits reduced because they happen to have occupational pensions. I believe that the grouping of the amendments is appropriate but, none the less, it is important for us to bear in mind the fact that we are discussing two issues here. Although they may be
      
      
      related they are, to some extent, separate. Therefore, I hope that noble Lords will feel that it is right to oppose both sets of amendments, as proposed by the noble Lord, Lord, Ashley.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We have before us some amendments on which the House of Commons has got to support the noble Lord, Lord Ashley&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04898'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_166'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Noble Lords&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      Oh!
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04899'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_167'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins" title="Mr Terence Higgins"&gt;Lord Higgins&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I beg the noble Lord's pardon. Let there be no doubt on the matter: we will certainly support the noble Lord, Lord Ashley.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I want to stress most strongly a point which has been made by a number of noble Lords, not least the proposer of the amendments himself; namely, that the House of Commons has not yet had an opportunity to vote on these amendments. When we discussed the matter during earlier stages of the Bill, we voted on and carried amendments to remove these two clauses, which I believe to be fundamentally wrong in principle. The matter then went to the other place and the Government came forward with totally inadequate amendments as a form of compromise. It is that on which the House of Commons has so far voted. The noble Lord, Lord Davies of Coity, seemed completely unaware of the fact that the other place has not yet had an opportunity to vote on these specific issues.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Although I continue to take the view that these clauses are wrong in principle, I recognise the fact that there is a case for compromise. I certainly believe that the compromise put forward by the Government is totally inadequate and that that put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, is one which the House as a whole should support. It is an entirely reasonable basis on which the House may proceed. Therefore, it does not seem to me that the issue of the constitutional position of the House, or whatever, actually comes into question at this point. Indeed, it is something quite separate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Nevertheless, at the end of the day&amp;#x2014;and this is important&amp;#x2014;I feel bound to say that the matter rests with the House of Commons. We should give Members in the other place the opportunity to vote on these amendments. I do not take the view that it would then be right constantly to reject them. Indeed, as the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, pointed out, it is not his intention to kill the Bill. Similarly, it is not our intention to kill the Bill. Although there are a number of objectionable features in the legislation, I believe that, overall, it does things which ought to have support. Our task is to remove these particular clauses from the Bill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not think that these clauses can conceivably be regarded as reform. They are fundamentally flawed. In addition, it has been said that this is a matter upon which there will be a conspiracy of hereditary Peers, and so on. However, one has only to look at the results of the voting on the last occasion when the matter was before the House. If no hereditary Peers had voted against these clauses, the amendments against the
      
      Government and in favour of knocking out the clauses would still have been carried by a substantial majority. I believe that there is great opposition throughout the House as regards what the Government are doing; indeed, it is all-party opposition.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My next point is equally important. It has been reported, not least in some press articles, that this is a measure to increase expenditure on the disabled. It is not so. These clauses do not represent a measure to increase expenditure on the disabled; they represent cuts in what has already been previously agreed for the disabled. That is the crucial difference between the two positions. In effect, we have been told by the Government, "Oh well, we have made a concession". But what has actually happened is that the Government have come forward with these proposals, which propose to take away benefits from the disabled. They have then said, "You can hang on to a little bit of what remains". That is not a reasonable deal. However, the proposition put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, would strike a reasonable balance between the two sides of the House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to say a few words on the substance of the matters now before the House. The first set of amendments is concerned with a contribution condition. It has been the hallmark of the Government's so-called "reforms" that, as an overall effect of policy, they have undermined time and again the contributory principle. Indeed, they have extended the question of means testing time after time. What we object to most strongly in the first clause that we are discussing and which the noble Lord seeks to amend is the proposition that people who have contributed for many years but have not done so recently&amp;#x2014;very often for good reasons&amp;#x2014;should suddenly find that they lose their disability allowance. We believe that to be wrong in principle. At any rate, one should go for the compromise which the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, has proposed; namely, that it should at least be a question of whether such people have contributed over a seven-year period.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The second set of issues relates to the question of incapacity benefit and pension contributions. I do not wish to burden the House by repeating the excellent exposition made by the proposer of these amendments as regards the way in which this will operate. It will do so by applying a ludicrously high, effective marginal rate of tax to people who cannot conceivably be regarded as well off. But there is an even stranger situation here. Under this clause, and at this very high rate of marginal tax, incapacity benefit will be taken away from people because they have an occupational pension. The whole thrust of the rest of the Bill is to say that people should make provision by way of pension. But what do we find? If you are disabled and have been fortunate enough to find a pension, you will suddenly find that you are penalised for so doing. The clause is totally inconsistent with what remains in the rest of the Bill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, there is something even more curious about this proposal. If you have an occupational pension at a relatively low level, your incapacity benefit will begin to be withdrawn. Indeed, after not
      
      
      very large increases in the level of income at which this happens, it will then be withdrawn altogether. If another individual on incapacity benefit had an income from stocks and shares of, say, &amp;#x00A3;2 million a year, his incapacity benefit would not be affected at all. It is a truly lunatic situation. I really do not understand why it should be so.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There are many other arguments to deploy but, as many have already been put forward this afternoon, I do not wish to burden your Lordships' House by repeating them. However, there is perhaps one that is worth mentioning. I have in mind the question of public expenditure. We have been told, "Well, we have to make these cuts on the people who are incapacitated"&amp;#x2014;who are certainly not among the richest members of the community&amp;#x2014;"in order to pay for some of the improvements which have been made elsewhere in the welfare system". Indeed, some of those improvements will affect people who are better off and less incapacitated, if incapacitated at all. That is not a reasonable way to assess priorities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I conclude on this note. Like most noble Lords, I am genuinely puzzled as to why the Government should persist in retaining these two clauses. I find them completely incompatible with the overall approach which they seem to be adopting. They cannot conceivably be regarded as reform. However, as I say, while they are wrong in principle I recognise that a compromise should be agreed. I do not think that this is something which should go back and forth and endanger the Bill. However, it is tremendously important that this House should carry out its duty, which is to ensure that those in another place, who must at the end of the day have ultimate responsibility for these matters, should have an opportunity to vote on the amendments which have been put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Ashley. I very much hope that your Lordships will support them.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04900'&gt;
  
  6 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04901'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_169'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, in supporting Amendments Nos. 42A and 42B to Lords Amendment No. 42, I shall speak also to Amendments Nos. 43A to C. Of course I am asking the House therefore to reject the amendments of my noble friend.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It always gives me great pleasure to reply to such a balanced debate with such a variety of views as we have heard tonight. There have been three main themes advanced tonight. First, that what is being offered by my noble friend Lord Ashley is a compromise; secondly, that what the Government are doing affects people below the poverty line and, thirdly, that the other House should have a chance to consider&amp;#x2014;which it has not yet done&amp;#x2014;the amendments of my noble friend.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My honourable friend Mr Rooker in the other place said that he was engaging with myths as much as with information. I am afraid that I am about to do the same thing tonight. First, although this measure has been alleged to be a compromise, it is not. Secondly, we have been told that it affects people below the poverty line, but it does not The statistics are quite misleading.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      Thirdly, we are told that the Commons have not had a chance to consider this matter when they have and have made their position already clear. I shall return to that point.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government have made it clear all along that the incapacity benefit reforms are based on principle, helping the 1 million disabled people who say they want to work to do so while providing the right support for those who cannot. The Government are already spending more than &amp;#x00A3;24 billion a year on benefits for long-term sick and disabled people. During the course of this Parliament we expect to spend nearly &amp;#x00A3;2 billion more. I repeat that this is not a cuts agenda, even though that has been alleged by some, including the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, tonight. As I say, we are spending nearly &amp;#x00A3;2 billion more on disabled people in the course of this Parliament. But we believe that in doing so the greatest resources should be spent on those with the greatest needs. If we are to meet that challenge, incapacity benefit needs to be reshaped and reformed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I remind the House that despite some suggestions to the contrary&amp;#x2014;again from the noble Lord, Lord Higgins&amp;#x2014;no one who is currently disabled and on incapacity benefit will be affected by these changes. In response to my noble friend Lady Kennedy I also remind the House that in future 90 per cent. of those on incapacity benefit will not be affected by these changes. I say to my noble friend Lord Morris, who has alleged that incapacity benefit expenditure is not out of control because the numbers on it are falling, that that is simply a result of measures taken in 1995. When someone now reaches retirement age he or she comes off IB and goes onto old age pension. That is the reason for the fall in numbers. It has nothing at all to do with the actual caseload.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government clearly have not gone as far as my noble friend Lord Ashley would like. I accept that. My noble friend presents his amendments as a compromise. That word has been much used tonight. However, his amendments are not a compromise by any definition of that word. They neuter most of the effect of this Bill, as I do not doubt that my noble friend intended they would. IB was devised as an earnings replacement benefit for those who became sick and disabled while in work and who might otherwise have remained in work. As people have said tonight, incapacity benefit was never intended to massage the unemployment figures, although it was so used by the previous government. IB was never intended to be a top-up for early retirement, although it is now being used in that way too. We are bringing back IB to its original intent, an earnings replacement benefit for those disabled while in work and unable to continue to work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My noble friend's proposals for the contribution conditions would allow someone to qualify for 113 who did one year's work as long as 81 years ago. That is not creating a link with recent work. That is not compensating someone who has had to leave work recently because of incapacity. Instead it makes incapacity benefit a latent unemployment benefit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      My noble friend's proposals on occupational pensions would enable a single person to get IB with a pension&amp;#x2014;not an income&amp;#x2014;of up to &amp;#x00A3;23,000 a year which would have been provided by earnings of &amp;#x00A3;45,000 plus, or a couple with two children to get incapacity benefit with a pension of up to &amp;#x00A3;39,000&amp;#x2014;I repeat that that is not income, wages or earnings but pension&amp;#x2014;implying preceding earnings of &amp;#x00A3;60,000 to &amp;#x00A3;80,000. No one in your Lordships' House&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04902'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_170'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-william-goodhart' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-william-goodhart" title="Mr William Goodhart"&gt;Lord Goodhart&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I am most grateful to the noble Baroness for giving way. But are not the figures for earnings and pensions that she has just given to us similar to the sort of figures that she mentioned in connection with the working families' tax credit when she defended the fact that government benefits were being given to people on those levels of earnings?
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04903'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_171'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the working families' tax credit for a couple with two children would taper out at about &amp;#x00A3;15,000 of earnings; that is, for a couple with dependent children. I refer to both partners being in work and eligible to claim childcare allowance. However, I am comparing like with like, not apples with oranges. The childcare allowance is equivalent to DLA, not IB. WFTC tapers out at earnings of between &amp;#x00A3;14,000 and &amp;#x00A3;16,000. My noble friend's amendment would result in IB tapering out at a pension of double that; that is, &amp;#x00A3;39,000. That would have had to be preceded by earnings of &amp;#x00A3;60,000 to &amp;#x00A3;80,000. I am glad that the noble Lord, Lord Goodhart, gave me the opportunity to make that clear.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      By any stretch of the imagination my noble friend is not targeting those with the greatest needs. My noble friend says that he is protecting the poor. Since when has someone with a pension of &amp;#x00A3;30,000 plus&amp;#x2014;and therefore with preceding earnings of double that figure&amp;#x2014;been deemed poor? My noble friend's amendments are not a compromise. The word "compromise" is a useful one. It has become emptied of meaning tonight because, as my noble friend himself said, his amendments would remove from their reach two-thirds of those affected by the proposals.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04904'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_172'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell" title="Mr Conrad Russell"&gt;Earl Russell&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04905'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_173'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I did not intervene in other people's speeches and I hope that I shall be allowed to make my speech tonight.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04906'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_174'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-conrad-russell" title="Mr Conrad Russell"&gt;Earl Russell&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I am most grateful to the Minister for giving way. Does she understand that in the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Ashley, we have conceded the principle? That is a great sacrifice. Some substantial share of the practice would be an appropriate response.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04907'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_175'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, to concede the principle and then move amendments which take almost everyone out of its operation is not to my mind a substantial compromise.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      As I say, my noble friend's amendments are not a compromise. They take almost two-thirds of those affected by the measure out of its reach and they hugely reduce the impact on most of the rest. That is why the Government cannot and will not accept them. However, the Government have listened and have moved significantly. I remind your Lordships that the Government have extended the period over which national insurance contributions have to be paid from one out of the last two tax years prior to the claim for IB, to one out of the last three. In practice, that means someone will be able to get IB, given the working of the tax years, even if they last worked four and a half years ago. To qualify, people will need only to have worked for four weeks on average male earnings&amp;#x2014;or 12 weeks on the national minimum wage&amp;#x2014;sometime within the past four and a half years. Do your Lordships really believe that is an onerous contribution condition to meet?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The extra year that the Government amendment proposes will particularly help people with progressive diseases, who may lose their jobs some time before they are eligible to claim IB, and others with broken work records. As I promised on Report, the Commons amendment provides that people on disabled person's tax credit earning below the lower earnings limit will be able, like carers on invalid carer's allowance, to qualify on the basis of credits in the last two tax years, provided that they have paid contributions at some point in the past. That offers them real security if they stay in work. Again, the Government have listened, responded and moved.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Turning to occupational pensions, the Government intend to raise the occupational and personal pension threshold by &amp;#x00A3;35 a week, from &amp;#x00A3;50 to &amp;#x00A3;85&amp;#x2014;which is substantial. That figure, as my right honourable friend the Secretary of State said in the other place, will be reviewed annually so that it keeps its value. Invalidity benefit will not even begin to be reduced for a single person until their income reaches &amp;#x00A3;152 a week. Despite what was said by my noble friend Lord Ashley about the poverty line, that is some &amp;#x00A3;55 a week above what many of us regard as the poverty line&amp;#x2014;below half average earnings. My noble friend misled the House, possibly because he was comparing a family with children against a single person. Again, that is apples and oranges. I am sure that my noble friend did not intend to mislead the House but he certainly did, and that mistake was repeated by the noble Lord, Lord Rix.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I repeat, the taper on IB does not even begin to come into effect for a single person, and similarly for couples, until their income is at least &amp;#x00A3;55 above the poverty line that has been quoted by my noble friend. That means that single people will continue to get IB until their early retirement pension reaches nearly &amp;#x00A3;11,500 a year, which is &amp;#x00A3;86.50 a week higher than the disability income guarantee. A couple with two children could get &amp;#x00A3;18,500 and child benefit on top of that, before they lost their entitlement to IB. On top of that, they might also qualify for DLA. Under the Government's proposals, unlike those of my noble friend, those people most severely disabled on the
      
      
      highest rate of DLA will not be affected at all. As a result of the Government's proposals, 100,000 disabled people will no longer be brought within these changes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Three additional points were made. The first was that the amendment of my noble friend Lord Ashley was a compromise. Although your Lordships may wish to describe as a compromise something that effectively takes two thirds of the people out of the Bill's reach, do not think that you are somehow negotiating. Your Lordships are not and we are not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The second point made and repeated concerned the poverty line. Given that the taper kicks in at some &amp;#x00A3;55 a week over the poverty line and, on the Government amendments, would not be withdrawn for a couple with children until some &amp;#x00A3;18,500 be fore child benefit and DLA, we are not talking about people below the poverty line.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The third point&amp;#x2014;made emphatically by the noble Lord, Lord Higgins&amp;#x2014;was that the other place did not have the chance to consider the amendments and that therefore we would be doing them a favour by returning these proposals for further consideration. I do not agree. I sat in the Gallery in the other place, as did one or two other noble Lords&amp;#x2014;not for the whole debate, but I went to and fro. It was clear to me and to the House that the entire debate on incapacity benefit, which went on for some three hours, was on the whole range of amendments thereto, as well as on the government amendments. My honourable friend the Member for Kingswood, Mr Roger Berry, stated in the other place on 3rd November:
      &lt;q&gt;I have supported a compromise position, which is on the Order Paper".&amp;#x2014;[&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Official Report&lt;/span&gt;, Commons, 3/11/99; col. 321.]&lt;/q&gt;
      And he went on to describe it. That was just one part of an extensive debate on incapacity benefits. The other place had a proper opportunity to debate the noble Lord's amendment. It chose instead to support the Government rather than defeat them and to support the amendment of my noble friend, there advanced by Mr Roger Berry. The Commons have considered these amendments. They chose to support the Government. They considered this matter as part of the wider debate. They do not need these matters to be sent back to them.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04908'&gt;
  
  6.15 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04909'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_177'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-higgins" title="Mr Terence Higgins"&gt;Lord Higgins&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, if the Minister will allow me, the other place did not have the opportunity to vote on these amendments.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04910'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_178'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, if the other place had wanted these amendments, it could have voted down the Government's proposition and voted for the other amendments on the Order Paper put by Mr Roger Berry, which were basically the same as my noble friend's amendments. The other place chose not to do so. To suggest that the Commons had neither the wit nor the intelligence to see that strategy is deeply condescending to Members of the other place. They knew what they were doing. It is an act of self-deception by your Lordships to suggest that they did not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      The Government have a good and strong record of supporting disabled people. The Government are spending up to &amp;#x00A3;2 billion more this Parliament. This is not about cuts. It is about seeking to respond to real, new and emerging need. The Government have delivered the Disability Rights Commission and are delivering the disabled person's new deal and the disabled person's tax credit&amp;#x2014;all in two years of a Labour Government. We are continuing that work in this Bill, strengthening the help given to the most severely disabled, the poorest disabled people, and to children and young people. That is a record of which we are proud.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We believe that what we are doing in the Bill is right. We are focusing help on people who need it most. For example, children born with a severe disability&amp;#x2014;not people retiring on a generous white-collar pension of &amp;#x00A3;30,000 or more. That is why, although the Government have listened and have moved quite considerably, they will not be moving any further. The Government have sought to meet reasonable concerns. They have done so and should receive credit for that. Given that the Government's concessions and compromise have taken something like 125,000 people out of the changes in the Bill, to dismiss them as some noble Lords have done tonight&amp;#x2014;including some of my noble friends&amp;#x2014;as being somehow trivial and insignificant is deeply churlish.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government have listened. It is time that your Lordships listened. Ping-ponging the Bill will not bring anything further for disabled people. My noble friend Lord Ashley may believe that, but he is wrong. Ping-ponging the Bill will not bring forward any further concessions. I quote the Secretary of State:
      &lt;q&gt;There are no further changes to come. The Lords must understand that".&lt;/q&gt;
      Ping-ponging could delay and endanger other aspects of the Bill affecting millions of people; not just extra help for the poorest and most severely disabled but the right of bereaved men to receive for the first time widower's benefits. Ping-ponging the Bill would also risk delaying and endangering the protection of SERPS widows, which we discussed earlier this evening. Let your Lordships be in no doubt that it would also risk the right of women who divorce&amp;#x2014;as, unfortunately, half of all married women will&amp;#x2014;to receive shared pension rights, which is something for which your Lordships called. Finally, it might risk or endanger the opportunity for several million low-paid people to enter a good, cheap, safe, funded stakeholder pension scheme.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not exaggerate when I say that millions of people&amp;#x2014;women, low-paid people, widowers and the poorest disabled people&amp;#x2014;will benefit from the Bill. So why are your Lordships proposing to ping-pong it when no further concessions are to be had? The House of Commons has twice&amp;#x2014;I repeat, twice&amp;#x2014;made its views clear that it supports the Government and that it supports the Bill. Ping-pong will delay the Bill; it could endanger it. It will not extract any further concessions; there are none to be had.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      As your Lordships acknowledge, the Government have the right to get their legislation through&amp;#x2014;not my noble friend's legislation; not the Tory legislation; but the Government's legislation. I ask your Lordships and my noble friend: is it not time to acquiesce with grace to the considered decision of the elected House and send a Bill, which will benefit millions of our people, on to Royal Assent?
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04911'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_179'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley" title="Mr Jack Ashley"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I wish to thank all the speakers who have participated in this splendid debate. We have had some marvellous contributions, nearly all of them well informed. I congratulate all speakers who have taken part. I need refer only to the brilliant speech made by the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Coity. Assuming that we were in a general election mode, it was a wonderful, rabble-rousing speech; it would have been a highly successful contribution to the hustings. Unfortunately, he got the date wrong, the time wrong and the place wrong. Apart from that it was a marvellous speech.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The only other comment I have on the noble Lord's speech is that he boasts about having been a trade union leader. If I may say so modestly, as a young man I was too. If I belonged to a trade union with a leader who was prepared to penalise severely disabled, poor people&amp;#x2014;living on a poverty level income, on &amp;#x00A3;8,000 or whatever&amp;#x2014;I would join a different trade union.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Minister has spoken with her usual eloquence. My noble friend is a great expert in this field. She is far more expert than anyone else in the House&amp;#x2014;with, perhaps, the exception of the noble Earl, Lord Russell. Both of them are exceptional speakers. However, I must pick her up on one or two small points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      She began her contribution by saying that there had been a splendid variety of views. I heard no variety of views at all; all I heard was unanimous condemnation.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04912'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_180'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, that will teach me to indulge in irony.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04913'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_181'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley" title="Mr Jack Ashley"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, there was unanimous condemnation in the House of the Government's policies&amp;#x2014;except from our great friend, the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Coity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Minister said that my amendments were not really compromise. I know that my noble friend is good at fiddling figures&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04914'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_182'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      Never! Never!
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04915'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_183'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley" title="Mr Jack Ashley"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, playing with figures perhaps. All I shall say is this: my amendments halve the money that the Government tried to save and squeeze out of disabled people.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04916'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_184'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-patricia-hollis" title="Ms Patricia Hollis"&gt;Baroness Hollis of Heigham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, that is not correct. The Government's original proposals were for &amp;#x00A3;700 million. My noble friend's proposals will bring that down to approximately &amp;#x00A3;190 million.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04917'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_185'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-jack-ashley" title="Mr Jack Ashley"&gt;Lord Ashley of Stoke&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the last Government proposals that I saw were &amp;#x00A3;500 million.
      
      They were left with &amp;#x00A3;350 million if my amendments were accepted. We could not lean over backwards further than that to be more compromising. I was against the principle&amp;#x2014;as was the noble Lord, Lord Higgins&amp;#x2014;of hitting severely disabled people in this way. As the noble Earl, Lord Russell, said, we gave way on the principle; we tried to compromise and to be reasonable because we recognise that the Government have this great majority in the House of Commons. That is the point.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Another point is that my noble friend mentioned those great examples of people on incapacity benefit who have marvellous pensions of &amp;#x00A3;23,000 or &amp;#x00A3;30,000. For her to quote those kinds of extreme examples shows the desperation of the Government. The wages necessary to receive a pension of that kind will be somewhere in the region of &amp;#x00A3;100,000 or &amp;#x00A3;200,000&amp;#x2014;I do not know. It requires an enormously high salary. How many severely disabled people applying for IB will have earned that kind of vast fortune? Maybe a dozen; maybe two dozen; maybe 100; maybe 1,000&amp;#x2014;but, out of the 310,000 people that we are talking about, that is nothing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My noble friend seemed to be proud of excluding people from the measures in the Bill. It is a strange Bill where one has a Minister standing up to say "I am proud that this Bill does not cover these people and does not cover those people". The Bill is supposed to help people; it is to make specific provisions for IB to help people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I may round off in this way. My noble friend did not dispute that the Government's concessionary position leaves some disabled people in poverty of one kind or another. Someone receiving &amp;#x00A3;8,000 is not a wealthy person to be hit by these proposals. She did not deny that the tax rate for these people is 70 per cent compared with 40 per cent for millionaires. She did not deny that the concessions given by the Government relate only to some 20,000 people with the high rate of DLA and 22,000 people with the disabled person's tax allowance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Speeches have been made in the House by various speakers. I do not intend to go through them all. The Minister has failed to deal with them adequately. When she tries to frighten the House by mentioning all the good things in the Bill that are at risk, I shall say this: she knows that no one has been a stronger supporter of this Government than me; no one has been a stronger supporter of this Bill than me; no one has been a stronger supporter of welfare reform than me. I started my speech by saying that I admired the Secretary of State; I said how good he was and how wonderful was the record of the Government. But on incapacity benefit the Government are acting disgracefully by hitting these people. We are not jeopardising the good things in the Bill; we are simply challenging the Government for hitting people on incapacity benefit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that the House will support my amendments. As far as concerns the future, my options are open. I commend my Motion to the House.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04918'&gt;
  
  6.28 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04919'&gt;
  
  On Question, Whether the said Motion shall be agreed to?
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04920'&gt;
  
  Their Lordships divided: Contents, 260; Not-Contents, 127.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='division' id='division_2'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991108_HOL_189'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;table&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;span class="bold"&gt;Division No. 2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;span class="bold"&gt;CONTENTS&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ackner, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Denham, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Addington, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Desai, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Addison, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dholakia, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ailsa, M.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dundee, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Alderdice, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Eden of Winton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Allenby of Megiddo, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Elles, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Alton of Liverpool, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Elliott of Morpeth, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Anelay of St. Johns, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Elton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Annaly, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Exmouth, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ashbourne, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ezra, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ashley of Stoke, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Falkland, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Astor, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Feldman, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Astor of Hever, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ferrers, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Attlee, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Fitt, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Avebury, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Flather, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Banbury of Southam, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Fookes, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Barker, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Forsyth of Drumlean, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bathurst, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Fraser of Carmyllie, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Belhaven and Stenton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gage, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gardner of Parkes, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Berners, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Geraint, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bethell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Glanusk, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Biddulph, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Glasgow, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Biffen, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Glentoran, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Birdwood, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Goodhart, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Blatch, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gormanston, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Blease, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gray, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Blyth, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gray of Contin, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Boardman, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Greenway, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bowness, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Grey, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bradshaw, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hampton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bridgeman, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hamwee, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bridges, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harding of Petherton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Brougham and Vaux, L&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hardinge of Penshurst, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bruntisfield, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harmsworth, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Buccleuch and Queensbarry, D.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harris of Greenwich, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Buckinghamshire, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harris of Peckham, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Buscombe, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harris of Richmond, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Byford, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Higgins, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cadman, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Home, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Caithness, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hood, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Calverley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Howe, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Campbell of Alloway, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Howell of Guildford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Carlile of Berriew, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hutchinson of Lullington, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Carlisle, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hylton-Foster, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Carnegy of Lour, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ironside, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Charteris of Amisfield, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Jacobs, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Chesham, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Jeger, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clancarty, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Jopling, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clark of Kempston, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kemsley, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clement-Jones, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kennet, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clwyd, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kilbracken, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cochrane of Cults, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kingsland, L&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Coleridge, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kinloss, Ly.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cope of Berkeley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kintore, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cowdrey of Tonbridge, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kirkwood, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Craig of Radley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lamont of Lerwick, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cranborne, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lane, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Crickhowell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lauderdale, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cross, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lawrence, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cumberlege, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Layton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Darcy de Knayth, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Leigh, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Davidson, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lester of Herne Hill, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dean of Harptree, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Limerick, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/table&gt;
  
  &lt;table&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lincoln, Bp.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Redesdale, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lindsey and Abingdon, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rees-Mogg, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Linklater of Butterstone, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rennard, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Listowel, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Renton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Liverpool, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Richardson of Calow, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lloyd-Webber, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rix, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Long, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Roberts of Conwy, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Longford, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rochester, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lucas of Chilworth, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rodgers of Quarry Bank, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Luke, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Roll of Ipsden, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lyell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rotherwick, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;McCarthy, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rowallan, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;McColl of Dulwich, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Russell, E. [&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Teller&lt;/span&gt;]&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mackay of Ardbrecknish, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ryder of Warsaw, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;McNair, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;St. John of Fawsley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;McNally, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Saltoun of Abernethy, Ly.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Maddock, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sandberg, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mancroft, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sandwich, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mar and Kellie, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sandys, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Marsh, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Seccombe, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Masham of Ilton, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sefton of Garston, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Massereene and Ferrard, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Selsdon, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;May, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Shannon, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mayhew of Twysden, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sharman, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Miller of Chilthorne Domer, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sharp of Guildford, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Miller of Hendon, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sharples, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mills, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Shaughnessy, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Molloy, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Shaw of Northstead, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Monro of Langholm, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Shore of Stepney, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Monson, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Slim, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Montagu of Beaulieu, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Smith of Clifton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Monteagle of Brandon, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Soulsby of Swaffham Prior, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Morris, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Steel of Aikwood, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Morris of Manchester, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sterling of Plaistow. L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mountevans, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Stewartby, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Munster, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Stoddart of Swindon, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Murton of Lindisfarne, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Strafford, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Napier and Ettrick, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Suffolk and Berkshire, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Newall, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Swansea, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Newby, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Swinfen, L. [&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Teller&lt;/span&gt;]&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Nicholson of Winterbourne, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Taylor of Warwick, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Noel-Buxton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Temple of Stowe, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Norrie, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Tenby, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Northesk, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Teviot, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Norton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Teynham, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;O'Cathain, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thomas of Gresford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ogmore, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thomas of Swynnerton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Onslow, E.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thomas of Walliswood, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Oppenheim-Barnes, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thurso, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Orme, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Tordoff, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Oxfuird, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Torrington, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Palmer, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Trenchard, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Park of Monmouth, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Trumpington, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Pender, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Turner of Camden, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Perry of Walton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Waddington, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Peyton of Yeovil, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wade of Chorlton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Phillips of Sudbury, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Walpole, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Pilkington of Oxenford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Weatherill, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Plumb, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Westbury, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Prentice, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wharton, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Prior, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wigoder, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Quirk, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Williams of Crosby, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rathcavan, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wise, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rawlings, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wright of Richmond, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Razzall, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wynford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Reay, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Young, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/table&gt;
  &lt;table&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;span class="bold"&gt;NOT-CONTENTS&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Acton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bassam of Brighton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ailesbury, M.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Berkeley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Alli, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Blackstone, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Amos, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  
  &lt;td&gt;Borrie, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Archer of Sandwell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bragg, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ashton of Upholland, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Brett, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Bach, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Brooke of Alverthorpe, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/table&gt;
  
  
  &lt;table&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Brookman, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Jay of Paddington, B. (&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Lord&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Brooks of Tremorfa, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Privy Seal&lt;/span&gt;)&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Burlison, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;King of West Bromwich, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Carmichael of Kelvingrove, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Kirkhill, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Carter, L. [&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Teller&lt;/span&gt;]&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lea of Crondall, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Chandos, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lipsey, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Christopher, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lockwood, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clarke of Hampstead, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lofthouse of Pontefract, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Cledwyn of Penrhos, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Lovell-Davis, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Clinton-Davis, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Macdonald of Tradeston, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Crawley, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;McIntosh of Haringey, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Currie of Marylebone, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;[&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Teller&lt;/span&gt;]&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;David, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mackenzie of Framwellgate, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Davies of Coity, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mallalieu, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Davies of Oldham, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Marlesford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dean of Thornton-le-Fylde, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mason of Barnsley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Diamond, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Massey of Darwen, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Donoughue, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Merlyn-Rees, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dormand of Easington, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Milner of Leeds, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Dubs, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Mishcon, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Elder, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Monkswell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Evans of Parkside, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Murray of Epping Forest, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Evans of Watford, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Nicol, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;O'Neill of Bengarve, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Falconer of Thoroton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Pitkeathley, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Farrington of Ribbleton, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Plant of Highfield, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Faulkner of Worcester, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ponsonby of Shulbrede, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Filkin, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Prys-Davies, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gale, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Puttnam, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gavron, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Ramsay of Cartvale, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gilbert, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Randall of St, Budeaux, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gladwin of Clee, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Rendell of Babergh, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Goldsmith, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Richard, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Goudie, B,&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sainsbury of Turville, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gould of Potternewton, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Sawyer, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Grabiner, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Scotland of Asthal, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Graham of Edmonton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Serota, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Grantchester, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Shepherd, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Gregson, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Simon, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Grenfell, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Smith of Gilmorehill, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hacking, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Smith of Leigh, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hanworth, V.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Strabolgi, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hardy of Wath, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Symons of Vernham Dean, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harris of Haringey, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Taylor of Blackburn, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Harrison, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thornton, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Haskel, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Thurlow, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Uddin, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hayman, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Varley, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hilton of Eggardon, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Walker of Doncaster, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hogg of Cumbernauld, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Warner, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hollis of Heigham, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Warwick of Undercliffe, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Howells of St Davids, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Wedderburn of Charlton, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Howie of Troon, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Whitaker, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hoyle, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Whitty, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hughes of Woodside, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Williams of Elvel, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Hunt of Kings Heath, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Williams of Mostyn, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Irvine of Lairg, L. (&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Lord Chancellor&lt;/span&gt;)&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Winston, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Woolmer of Leeds, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
  &lt;td&gt;Islwyn, L.&lt;/td&gt;
  
  &lt;td&gt;Young of Old Scone, B.&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/table&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04921'&gt;
  
  Resolved in the affirmative, and Motion agreed to accordingly.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol class='xoxo'&gt;
  
&lt;/ol&gt;
</content>
    <author>
      <name>Millbank Systems</name>
    </author>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <id>tag:hansard.millbanksystems.com,:Section/2520013</id>
    <published>1999-11-05T00:00:00+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-11-05T00:00:00+00:00</updated>
    <link type="text/html" href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1999/nov/05/electricity-from-renewables-ecc-report" rel="alternate"/>
    <title type="html">Electricity from Renewables: ECC Report, Lords Sitting of 5 November 1999</title>
    <content type="html">&lt;cite class='section'&gt;HL Deb 05 November 1999 vol 606 cc1102-35&lt;/cite&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04686'&gt;
  
  11.6 a.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04687'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_8'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-euan-geddes' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-euan-geddes" title="Mr Euan Geddes"&gt;Lord Geddes&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I beg to move the Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper. I, and I am sure the whole House, greatly look forward to the maiden speech of my noble friend Lord Cathcart. I know a little of what my noble friend is going through because, by chance, I opened my account in this House almost exactly 24 years ago on the subject of an energy report from the European Communities Select Committee. In my remarks, nervous though I was, I concentrated entirely on what was then called "alternative energy". There is a certain amount of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu&lt;/span&gt; this morning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report, and I hope the debate, is not an exercise in nostalgia. The development of renewable energy is of vital present and, even more importantly, future interest. The report being debated today resulted from the inquiry carried out by Sub-Committee B of the European Communities Select Committee of your Lordships' House. Having had the honour of chairing that committee, I wish genuinely to thank all its members, both present and past. I am particularly pleased to see six members on the list to speak today. I want also to thank and pay tribute to our specialist adviser, Mr David Milborrow, and to not one but two clerks who assisted us sequentially, Miss Kate Ball and Mr Roger Morgan.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report was prompted by a projected draft EC directive to set a framework for expanding renewable energy with targets for member states. The only slight dilemma we had was that the draft never appeared! We found it on the Internet. It was then withdrawn, but I shall deal with that in a moment. We took evidence during the period January to March this year and published our report in July. The Government responded in the middle of last month in&amp;#x2014;and I say now, and I shall say again&amp;#x2014;somewhat discouraging terms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It proved to be a very large and complex subject. We had 19 sessions of oral evidence, including John Battle MP, the then Energy Minister at the DTI, and Richard Caborn MP, the then Planning Minister at the DETR.
      
      
      We visited renewable energy installations in the north east of England and in Denmark. In addition to our oral evidence, we received 31 written submissions of evidence. Even then, we realised that we had not done full justice to the subject.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The December 1997 Kyoto protocol set firm targets for the reduction in pollution caused by the heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the resultant consequences for climate change. In our opinion, three complementary actions are required to meet those binding Kyoto targets: reduce energy consumption; improve the efficiency in both generation and use; and increase the proportion of energy from renewable sources.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our inquiry focused on only the last. But our report emphasises&amp;#x2014;and I want to re-emphasise it this morning&amp;#x2014;that if we are ever to come close to meeting the Kyoto targets, the development of renewables must be accompanied by action in the other two fields. For instance, this country's medium-term emissions target to 2005 is equivalent to shifting all electricity generation to the renewables. Clearly, that is totally unrealistic. However, I hope that it gives your Lordships an idea of the magnitude of the problem.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our inquiry also focused on progress to 2010. The climate change agenda seems bound to require further action over future years; for instance&amp;#x2014;and I am sure other speakers will take up the points&amp;#x2014;nuclear capacity will need to be decommissioned in due course. That is not far away. Fossil fuels will not last for ever. That has been said again and again, but it is a truism; they will not. However, we do not know when commercially they will run out.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In our inquiry, we defined renewable energy as that derived from non-fossil fuel sources: wind, waste and other biomass, hydro, wave, tidal, solar and geothermal. We specifically excluded nuclear power. Some have taken issue with us on that point, but we did so in order to contain the magnitude of the inquiry on which we were embarking.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We examined each of those non-fossil fuel sources in sufficient depth, we hope, to make informed comment. Of course, fuller study would have been possible, and perhaps should have been carried out, or could perhaps be carried out at a later date. We acknowledged in particular some important environmental issues in anticipation of the contribution from my noble friend Lord Cranbrook, but noted that we were able to touch on those issues only lightly. There are greater environmental issues than those specified in the report.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn now to the targets. The UK has pledged to derive 5 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2005, and 10 per cent by 2010. Those targets are very much in line with those proposed by the EC. The Government say that existing contracts and arrangements will deliver the 5 per cent target by 2005, and that the new arrangements will shortly be in place to secure the 10 per cent target by 2010.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      In our report, the committee agrees that such targets are technically feasible, but we cannot share the Government's confidence that either of those targets will be delivered. I shall discuss first the 2005 target of 5 per cent. The Government imply that the UK is on track towards meeting that target because renewable generation grew from 2 to 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent of electricity supplies between 1997 and 1998. That was, in the words of the government response,
      &lt;q&gt;due both to a recovery in output from large hydro plant and to further NFFO projects coming onstream".&lt;/q&gt;
      NFFO is the dreadful acronym for Non Fossil Fuel Obligations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The proposed EC directive would, in itself, have excluded large hydro. The Government are in a way&amp;#x2014;dare I say&amp;#x2014;massaging the figures, because not comparing like with like gives them a 1.3 per cent start. Even so, will the Government tell the House how much of that half a percentage point increase&amp;#x2014;between 2 and 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent&amp;#x2014;from 1997 to 1998 was due to NFFO projects coming on stream, and how much was due to
      &lt;q&gt;recovery in output from large hydro plant"?&lt;/q&gt;
      Is enough capacity really set to flow from NFFO projects to meet the 2005 target?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government accept that that will not happen unless the integrity of existing NFFO contracts is maintained during the upheavals of the present electricity market reforms. That is another major problem area, which I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Sainsbury, will address in his response. When will the steps that the Government are committed to taking actually take place? Will they be on time to meet those targets?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn now to the more long-term target of 10 per cent. Our inquiry found that to achieve the 10 per cent target by 2010 would require a seven-fold increase in the average rate of the installation of renewable energy. We checked that figure extremely carefully because it was so alarming. It is a staggering figure and we are nowhere near meeting it. The Government agree that to do so will require a new suite of policies, but in their response to our report, they do not say what those will be, nor when they might be in place.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      To meet the targets, all available renewable energy sources will need to be expanded at the maximum practical rate. We came to the conclusion that the main hope must rest on wind power, particularly from offshore sites. Having said that, there will be important contributions from waste combustion and landfill gas. The development of small hydro plants will be useful, but not significant in the overall situation. We did not see a significant input from energy crops. The Government in their response take issue with us on that score.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Photovoltaics harness the sun's energy indirectly, rather than using direct solar power. We considered them unlikely to be a major source of power, certainly in northern Europe, but we saw that there were important implications in photovoltaics for British industry. In the longer term, we saw useful contributions from offshore wave tidal streams and barrages, but not within the timescale up to 2010.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      A key new policy is the financial support mechanism. The effective and well-regarded non-fossil fuel obligation (NFFO) arrangements will clearly not work in the newly re-structured industry. A decision was urgently needed in that context at the time of our report in July. That decision has still not been made. The Government say that they intend,
      &lt;q&gt;to take the broad powers to establish a new support mechanism in the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/bills/utilities-bill"&gt;Utilities Bill&lt;/a&gt; which they hope to announce this autumn".&lt;/q&gt;
      It is now November, and we still have not heard about it. What is that new mechanism to be? Will the Government at least say when those key details are to be announced and give the target date for their implementation?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On the report's publication, I commented that,
      &lt;q&gt;the right words are said, but we found too little sign of these delivering the necessary action".&lt;/q&gt;
      The dispiriting dead bat of the Government's response invites the same comment, dare I say it, even more strongly. I could illustrate that point, but I shall not waste your Lordships' time. I am sure that noble Lords will have seen the Government's response. I use perhaps a slightly strong word in saying that it is woolly. It does not get to grips with any of the problems that we tried to highlight in our report. There was no mention of action&amp;#x2014;it was all words.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On the question of unit price, our report was clear that for as long as the price of electricity generated from fossil fuels ignores the external costs of pollution, renewables are being set an unfair target. That is a very important point that is continually skirted over. Again, it is not a like-for-like comparison at the moment. In their reply, the Government acknowledged that the "polluter pays" principle holds. However, they then go on to say that account must be taken of other considerations. Yes, my Lords. But where should the balance be struck? Are they content to hinder the development of renewables by retaining that price inequity?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I make one more point on the financial aspects. In our report we use some quite strong language in saying that we considered it absurd that the climate change levy might be applied to renewable energy. Others have made the same point. I hope that we may hear from the noble Lord, Lord Sainsbury, that there is some movement on the Government's part in this respect. It seems absolutely crazy to levy a climate change tax or levy on the very type of fuel which is trying to achieve the objective of a climate change to improve the climate. That is a contradiction in terms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We were extremely concerned about the whole planning situation, particularly in this country. The Government's response seems to us to indicate that they are far too confident that the planning regime will not frustrate the necessary massive development of renewables. There is one particular remark that I should like to quote from the Government's response that will sum up this point:
      &lt;q&gt;It will ensure that Regional Planning Guidance and development plans play a key role in fostering a strategic approach to renewable energy provision".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      That did not fill us with great confidence. Our recommendations for improving the planning regime and for stimulating local interest in renewable energy schemes remain just as valid today as they were when we produced our report. I particularly draw your Lordships' attention to paragraphs 216 and 225 of the report, which I shall not repeat.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      At the very least, can we be assured that there will be no more&amp;#x2014;I give this merely as an illustration&amp;#x2014;public inquiries into, say, wind farm proposals, where the inspectors simply repeat often misleading statements by objectors without qualification or comment? Many people have written to me saying that their heads are becoming very sore from knocking against an extremely heavy reinforced wall. It seems desperately difficult to get the message across that the planning regime should be proactive rather than immediately giving the easy answer&amp;#x2014;"no".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This whole problem is not about modest incremental change. The climate change imperative requires some dramatic action. New means must be found for achieving the necessary ends. I give a small illustration regarding the Ministry of Defence. We particularly included a comment about the, again, dead hand of the MoD. The Government say that work is in hand to codify measures to mitigate the impact of wind farms on radar reception. Phew! When will that be finalised? It has gone on for years and there is just a blockage. When will the MoD look seriously at this problem in order to try to help the development of renewable energy, not hinder it?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On embedded generation, we recommended in our report that work should be done to establish the relatively high limits of embedded generation with which the National Grid could cope. The Government agreed that that was an important issue which "needs to be addressed". But when, and how will it be taken forward?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We recommended what is known in the trade as "net metering". Some of your Lordships may not be aware that at the moment an extraordinary system exists which affects those who are doing their best. I think particularly of a house just outside Oxford, which was built specifically for photovoltaic power. Taking account of the different levels of demand for electricity within that house, there are occasions when the owner exports electricity to the grid and occasions when the owner imports electricity from the grid. That is fine. The problem is that presently the owner is paid 3p for the electricity going to the grid and has to pay 7p for the electricity coming from the grid. There is something wrong there. We strongly advocate net metering so that there is an equality in electricity going both in and out of the grid.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      At the end of our report, we invited the Government to,
      &lt;q&gt;declare unequivocally that the 'target is to achieve 10&amp;#x0025; of the UK's electricity supply from renewables by 2010'&amp;#x2014;and their determination to reach that target".&lt;/q&gt;
      In response, the Government restate the formula we criticised. They say that they have the,
      &lt;q&gt;intention of working towards the aim of achieving 10&amp;#x0025;".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      
      with only the hope of achieving that by 2010. That is not good enough. We have gone past the stage of words. We must have action. Can the Government today be firmer on the date and strip out at least one of those temporising words in their reply?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As so often happens with reports in your Lordships' House, we acknowledge that the debate concentrated mainly on this country, rather than on the European dimension, because of the pure practical fact that witnesses tend to be local. However, we were conscious of the European dimension. The intended EC directive that inspired the inquiry was, as I have said, withdrawn after pressure from some member states. However, we have just heard that a revised directive is about to be published. We hope that the Government will do their utmost to ensure that the momentum is maintained at EU level.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Few things of such long-term importance as the climate change agenda are before us. The development of renewable energy is an integral part of that. The Government acknowledge that achievement of the targets will require coherent policy action and a sustained drive and leadership. They say they intend to provide that drive and leadership. However, I make no apologies for repeating that action is needed now. We have gone past the time of words. The Government may say that they are doing their best. However, I end by reminding them and your Lordships of Winston Churchill's wartime saying:
      &lt;q&gt;It is not enough to do one's best. Sometimes one has to do what is necessary".&lt;/q&gt;
      I commend this report to the House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Moved, That this House take note of the Report of the European Communities Committee on Electricity from Renewables (12th Report, HL Paper 78).&amp;#x2014;(&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Lord Geddes.&lt;/span&gt;)
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  11.28 a.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-charles-williams-2' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-charles-williams-2" title="Mr Charles Williams"&gt;Lord Williams of Elvel&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the House will be grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, for introducing with the greatest clarity the report of his committee. First, I have to declare an interest as a vice-president of the Campaign for the Protection of Rural Wales, known as CPRW.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I noted that the three members of the committee also declared an interest. What worried me slightly was that the specialist adviser, who was praised so fulsomely both in the report and by the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, is himself technical consultant to &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Windpower Monthly.&lt;/span&gt; I am not saying that he behaved with any impropriety, but that perhaps explains the central flaw in the report, which is that it is too bullish about onshore wind power.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I also regret that the submission which was made by CPRW, both by e-mail and hard copy to the Clerk of the committee, was not apparently read by the committee. It certainly is not recorded in the report and it was not even acknowledged. As Wales is part of one of the most contentious areas for onshore wind power, I believe that it would have been good if the CPRW submission had been read. Had the committee
      
      in fact gone to Wales, members would have benefited from seeing some of the developments there and I believe they might have been a little less emphatic in their belief that it is a vocal minority which is opposing wind power schemes in Wales; and I believe they might have been less emphatic in their view that visual intrusiveness is on the decline or is overstated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On some of the substantive issues, I agree very much with what the committee said. I agree with what the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, said about energy efficiency. It is vitally important to make sure that the cake does not grow larger and larger simply because people burn too much fuel, too much electricity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I also agree with the tenor of the remarks of the noble Lord, and certainly the remark of Professor Fells in his evidence to the committee, that to reach the target set by the Government&amp;#x2014;5 per cent from renewables by 2003 and 10 per cent by 2010&amp;#x2014;requires action on an "heroic scale". That is what Professor Fells said and I believe that is what the noble Lord was saying today. Unless such action is taken, the targets are simply pie-in-the-sky; they will not be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that my noble friend the Minister in his reply will take up this point and explain what the Government propose to do now to meet these targets. In particular, can he explain what, in the Government's response, is meant by protecting the "integrity of existing contracts"? I thought contracts were meant to have integrity anyway. We did not get much enlightenment from the Government on that; nor indeed from the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On the various forms of renewable energy, I found the arguments that the committee produced against the Severn barrage to be rather less than convincing. The base load for the grid, of course, is nuclear. The flexible load is fossil fuel generating stations, which can be brought in and brought out of use as required. The tide is predictable, so a tidal barrage, like the Severn barrage, will produce electricity at a given and predictable time. That means that fossil fuel stations can be phased in or phased out, or reduce their output as the tidal barrage comes in.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Like all renewables, the problem is connection to the grid. It is extremely expensive to connect any type of large producer of electricity to the grid, but those costs just have to be faced. I accept that there is a financial problem with the Severn barrage. The return on investment is unlikely to be very high. Nevertheless, if we do nothing about climate change the return on investment will be even worse. I believe that is the sort of action on a heroic scale about which Professor Fells was talking.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I also believe that there is much more potential for photovoltaics than the committee and the noble Lord indicated. I was rather disappointed by their treatment of photovoltaics. There are only two paragraphs on
      
      
      solar energy. The problem is that the technology in that area is difficult. Although the technology is developing and developing quite fast, as the October issue of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Electricity UK&lt;/span&gt; states:
      &lt;q&gt;It comes down to a classic chicken and egg problem. As long as demand is small, production of solar energy will remain small scale and expensive, and as long as production is small scale and expensive, the price will remain high and demand small. Catch 22".&lt;/q&gt;
      I believe that at some point one has to break through that.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn to wind power. The technology for offshore wind power is not entirely proven. It is developing quite fast, but again the problem is the economics. The connection of large offshore wind power stations to the grid is very difficult and very expensive, but, again, it will have to be done.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Of course, onshore wind does not replace nuclear or fossil fuel generated power. It only displaces it when the wind happens to be blowing at approximately 11 mph, which is the cut-in speed, and lower than 55 mph, which is the cut-out speed. That, of course, is unreliable. So we have to keep fossil fuel stations going as back-up. Wind power will not replace fossil fuel power stations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I understand that Denmark is well advanced in onshore wind power. I understand that 5 per cent of the electricity output of Denmark is produced by 4,700 turbines. The population of Denmark is 5.5 million; the population of the United Kingdom is 58 million. So arithmetically, if we want to achieve the same proportion of our electricity output by onshore wind power as the Danes, we would need some 45,000 wind turbines in this country. I really do not believe that that would be acceptable to public opinion. If all the wind farms in the whole world were put on to the South Downs, they would generate only 5 per cent of the total demand for electricity in the United Kingdom. Of course, we are not going to put them on the South Downs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If the Government's figures are right&amp;#x2014;here I concede a point to the noble Lord, Lord Geddes&amp;#x2014;it means an enormous increase in the production of renewables and in their output. But this is a local problem. I am sorry that the committee did not visit Wales to see what the problem is. In Wales the most attractive places for wind farms&amp;#x2014;if one can call them "farms"&amp;#x2014;are the tops of hills. The most visually intrusive places for putting wind farms are the tops of hills. So the planning process is absolutely vital to make sure that we do not destroy our beautiful countryside in Wales.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am sorry to say to the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, that the planning process is working very well as it is. Local people can give their views; councillors can give their views; people can get elected, or deselected on that basis. That is the way you have to proceed because you cannot force these things down people's throats, as sooner or later they will rebel. I applaud the Government's response in not changing PPG22.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is one point on which I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Geddes. If the Government are serious, action needs to be taken now, but action needs to be
      
      taken on a very wide front. It is not just a question of one type of renewable; it is not just a question of two or three types; it is a question of getting to grips with energy efficiency and all the other things that the noble Lord spoke about, and of developing at speed the technologies which are environmentally friendly. Personally I believe that the Government should start the Severn barrage now. That would be an indication of how seriously they take this matter.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Again, Professor Fells said&amp;#x2014;I come back to where I started&amp;#x2014;that action is needed on an "heroic scale" if the Government's target is to be met. In my view, the committee has highlighted the problem, but has not produced a satisfactory solution.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  11.38 a.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-robert-methuen' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-robert-methuen" title="Mr Robert Methuen"&gt;Lord Methuen&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, for introducing the debate. It was a most fascinating inquiry and one that is highly relevant at this time. The noble Lord has been a most able chairman of our sub-committee and it has been a real pleasure to work with him during the time that I have served on the sub-committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The subject of our inquiry was limited to the generation of electricity from renewable sources. The technologies involved will be even more relevant to future generations. It is perhaps interesting to remember that our forebears, before the introduction of the steam engine, were perfectly familiar with and totally dependent on the use of renewable energy and its technology in the form of windmills and watermills.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One point that was specifically excluded from our inquiry, though mentioned in passing, was energy conservation. I felt that was a pity because electricity from renewables and energy conservation go hand in hand. Indeed, when we were in Copenhagen we were shown a graph which indicated that the Danes were expecting to reduce their energy consumption by 10 to 15 per cent by 2050. If we consider the likely demise of our nuclear power plants, the need to conserve energy becomes even more paramount. It may need to be achieved by long-term changes in our working lifestyle by such things as telecommuting with only occasional visits to the office. I do not usually use the M4, but the other day I got stuck in a traffic jam there. I was appalled to see that virtually every car alongside us had just one person in it. That is the type of energy conservation that needs to be emphasised at all times.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I was disappointed in the Government's response to our report. They need to get their act together if there is to be any hope of meeting their targets for the provision of electricity from renewables. The public have to be brought round to see the benefit of locally sponsored wind farms, from which they themselves will derive benefit, and thus defuse the NIMBY attitude which is so prevalent. I accept the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Williams, in relation to Wales. I have seen wind farms only in Cornwall. I live in Derbyshire and we have many sites there too which could be useful as wind farms, though I do not believe there are any at present.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      It is crazy when we have probably the best environment in Europe for wind generation, both onshore and offshore, that we have such a poor success rate in the installation of wind farms. The planning regime has a significant part to play in our failure to install them and there need to be changes to ensure that a greater success rate is achieved. Success in this field could lead to significant industry in manufacturing wind turbines, creating tens of thousands of jobs and export opportunities. The same can be said for photovoltaic. We saw an active system in the University of Northumbria which was effective even when there are overcast skies, as there were when we were there.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Mass production can bring dramatic cost reductions, as we have seen in the personal computer industry. Again, there are vast overseas market opportunities. But for PV in this country we need to solve the net metering financial hurdle, as mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, where electricity is bought and sold at vastly different figures. There are also certain technical problems to be overcome, such as "islanding", when a house is isolated in a small area and we try to feed all the neighbours rather than their obtaining their electricity from a distribution company.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I want to comment briefly on biomass. We saw examples of this both at a straw-burning plant in Denmark and in Northumberland where they were growing and using willow. Both installations were out of action when we visited due to corrosion problems, and there is obviously a lot of development necessary before they become realistic and practical installations. But with that development work, success should be achieved. However, we must remember that we have to move the biomass to the plant and we must be careful to ensure that the energy costs of transportation do not exceed the benefits of the electricity. In Denmark huge straw bales were being taken over significant distances to the plant.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to comment on system distribution problems. Due to the intermittent nature of many renewable energy sources, the technology used in the generator and the often remote locations of generation sites, the operators of the grid transmission system and local distribution companies have serious anxieties with regard to system stability and frequency control. Problems may occur when the intermittent sources of supply begin to become a significant portion&amp;#x2014;say, 25 to 30 per cent&amp;#x2014;of the supply total. I understand the Danes have already experienced problems at times of low demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In committee we considered the Severn barrage for some time. The general opinion was that it was one of those projects that was always being put back because it was too expensive. But if it had been put in place 20 years ago it would by now be cost-effective and the initial amounts would have been written off. The noble Lord, Lord Williams of Elvel, overestimates the problem of connecting to the grid system. There are
      
      large, 400 kilovolt power lines which cross that area and I should be surprised if integration with the grid system was any problem at all.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally, the Government have to do much more to meet the targets which have been set and more joined-up thinking is required in these matters. I commend the report to the House.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  11.45 a.m.
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  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Earl Cathcart&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a great privilege to be addressing your Lordships' House in its current form. Indeed, I may well be the last hereditary Peer to make a maiden speech in your Lordships' Chamber. My maiden speech will be an easy day for me to remember as it falls on the anniversary of the Gunpowder Plot; but let me assure your Lordships that my speech will contain no fireworks, though wind maybe.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I too offer my congratulations to the Select Committee, in particular to my noble friend Lord Geddes, on its excellent report which I found informative and easy to comprehend. I live and farm in Norfolk. I am a district councillor on Breckland council. I am a member of the planning and development committee and the environment scrutiny panel, and I recently co-wrote a policy paper on the environment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The whole subject of renewable energy should be viewed as an important part of the drive for sustainability which has been adopted wholeheartedly by government, both present and past. The Select Committee identified various features of the government and regulatory systems in this country which impact on this subject, and I have chosen to concentrate on just one or two of those.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      First, I want to comment on the difficulties in obtaining planning permission. It is not the planning system that is obstructive to the development of renewables, but those who determine the planning process. Local difficulties exist when specific applications are considered. After all, all installations have an environmental impact. In Breckland, my local authority, we have a policy which positively encourages such development. The results are there to be seen in the electricity generation from poultry litter at Fibro-Thetford and the new wind turbine at Swaffham, both the largest of their kind in Britain.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Breckland has taken the view that we must contribute to global issues. Our policy is one of encouragement rather than obstruction. Sadly, not all councils take that view. Some authorities have policies which seemingly support renewables, but in practice create insurmountable obstacles to development. For example, one council encourages wind turbines&amp;#x2014;provided they are at least five kilometres from any built-up area. Just by looking at a map one can see that that becomes very restrictive, if not impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As we have heard already, the report mentions the defect of planning inspectors' reports running counter to government planning policy guidelines&amp;#x2014;a clear case of a lack of joined-up thinking. So I submit that it is not the planning system which is obstructive, but the attitudes of those who determine the planning
      
      
      process. This report advocates more action to raise awareness of the need for renewable energy and I fully concur with that.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As my noble friend Lord Geddes said, a key feature which is impossible to disentangle from that of energy generation is energy conservation by that, I mean its frugal and responsible use in industry, public and domestic settings. Are we doing enough to reduce our energy consumption? I think not. Do we offer incentives which make a real difference? Again, I think not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The many tried and tested ways of reducing energy use could make a significant contribution to the reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions. If these were adopted, the need for more power-generating capacity would be removed. Estimates range from 5 per cent to over 20 per cent of our energy consumption being removed by the adoption of better conservation practices. Let us compare this to the target of 10 per cent of generating capacity from renewables.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      At the beginning of my remarks, I said that this subject is a sustainability issue. The thrust of sustainability is to ensure that decisions are no longer taken in isolation. The Government have described this process using the term "joined-up thinking". But the report concludes that as far as electricity from renewables goes, there is a decided lack of joined-up thinking. Indeed, many witnesses testified to their feeling of frustration at the fragmentation in the UK Government's policies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report recommends the establishment of a renewable energy agency, with real teeth. This is crucial if we are to have a co-ordinated approach to this whole subject and any chance at all of delivering our target, a target, agreed by the Government, that 10 per cent of the UK's energy requirement will be met by renewable energy by the year 2010.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is this aspect of the report that I found most disappointing and indeed depressing. I did not have to read far, for on the first page of the report it states that although these targets are "technically feasible", the committee did not see them being delivered under present government policies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      But why not? Why are these targets not going to be met? There appears to be a lack of resolve on the part of the Government, whereas in other areas of planning targets have been set and the necessary procedures put in place to ensure that they are met. In particular, I am thinking of the Government's desire to have 4.4 million new houses built by 2010 (coincidentally, the same date as the renewable target). Each county was given its quota, which was then allocated to each district within the county.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In Breckland, our allocation was 10,000 new houses, and we are on target to achieve this. Surely it is not beyond the wit of man, or government, to apply a similar determined approach to renewable energy. If it can be done with housing, why can it not be done with energy?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If a renewable energy agency is to be formed, it can allocate targets to regions, as recommended in the report, via the regional development agencies. They, in
      
      turn, can then allocate to counties, and then on to districts. This would have the effect of making councils clearly accountable for the progress towards their target.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I would suggest that targets should be expressed in terms of the number of megawatts generated, rather than be too specific. This flexibility would allow each region and, indeed, each district to construct generators most applicable to its area. The UK's target by 2010 is technically achievable. What is lacking as the co-ordination and the resolve to do so. I do hope that this Government will have the courage to react positively to this report.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  11.54 a.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-oliver' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-oliver" title="Mr John Oliver"&gt;The Lord Bishop of Hereford&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a great pleasure for me, on behalf of your Lordships, to congratulate the noble Earl, Lord Cathcart, on his notable maiden speech; indeed, a truly excellent speech, full of wisdom and interest and based on his first-hand experience in Breckland. I was particularly impressed by what the noble Earl said about the need for the conservation of energy and interested by his brief reference to the combustion of poultry litter, about which I should like to have heard more. I served my curacy in Breckland, so I can envisage those places where people are working so hard for energy conservation and renewable energy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I warmly welcome the Select Committee's report on this immensely important matter. I have enjoyed reading it and I agree with much of it wholeheartedly. But I must first declare an interest on two counts. First, I am joint patron of Country Guardian, the organisation which opposes the large-scale development of wind turbines in sensitive landscape areas (though, I should add, not in a dogmatic or irrational way). Country Guardian is keen to see appropriate small-scale use of wind power in inconspicuous places. Secondly, I am county president for Herefordshire of the Council for the Protection of Rural England and, therefore, have another role in seeking to safeguard beautiful and precious rural areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not underestimate the very great seriousness of the problems caused by climate change and the urgency of the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is imperative, as the committee says, that we develop a clear, coherent, long-term energy policy, including the proper part to be played by renewable sources of power. I am glad to see in the report the rather chilling phrase:
      &lt;q&gt;We have hardly begun to appreciate the difficulties that the future may bring".&lt;/q&gt;
      The overriding need is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and that should be the overriding objective of government policy. In seeking to meet our Kyoto commitments, and, I am sure, the very much more demanding targets which are bound to follow in the next century, the greatest emphasis must be on energy efficiency, on a reduction in the use of fossil fuels and on a complete transformation of our cavalier and self-indulgent use of road and air transport. The electricity industry is doing its bit in this regard, as is clear from
      
      
      the fact that, despite an increase in electricity consumption of 13 per cent between 1990 and 1997, overall emissions from electricity generation decreased by over 25 per cent in that same period&amp;#x2014;thanks to a greater emphasis on gas and nuclear as generating fuels, and much higher efficiency. If those improvements had been accompanied by a reduction in demand for power rather than an increase (and that could in fact have been achieved if we had been serious about energy conservation) emissions would have fallen even more dramatically.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So I want to set my comments on this report on renewables firmly in the context of the need for a coherent energy policy, for a proper emphasis on conservation and efficiency (and that implies, among other things, a radical change to the absurd policy of charging VAT at 17.5 per cent on insulation materials) and a serious attempt at reducing CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions from road and air traffic.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Within that context, what part have renewables to play, in what timescale and in what proportion as between the various sources of renewable energy? These are serious and urgent questions, and I am grateful to the committee for having addressed them with such care and thoughtfulness. But I am sorry that the committee seems to have been driven to an unacceptable degree, in coming to its conclusions, by the target of achieving 10 per cent of electricity from renewables by the year 2010. That is, frankly, an arbitrary target. We have already heard that the consultation document has not yet been published. It is a target which has been plucked out of the air in order to show that we are serious about renewables and prepared to play our part properly in a European energy strategy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The trouble with the 10 per cent by 2010 target is that it has inevitably led the committee, despite its scepticism as to whether the target is attainable, to place disproportionate emphasis on those renewable technologies which are at present most highly developed and able to deliver electricity at something very close to the market price&amp;#x2014;that is to say, wind power and energy from waste. I agree that if we were seriously to try to achieve the 10 per cent by 2010 target we would have to rely considerably on those two sources, despite their high environment cost. But I want to suggest that the environmental cost of straining every muscle to reach that target is too high. I wish that the committee had recognised that and concluded that the right way forward is to concentrate very much greater investment on research and development into the environmentally more benign forms of renewables&amp;#x2014;at present our research and development budget is preposterously small, despite the recent modest increase&amp;#x2014;so that by, say, the year 2030 there would be a good chance of a huge increase in the contribution from renewables, even as much as 30 per cent. of our by then reduced demand for power.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The long-term possibilities which look really promising in terms of generating power to feed into the grid are tidal, stream and marine current energy, more efficient and pollution free energy from waste, and
      
      possibly offshore wind, although by that I mean really offshore, over-the-horizon offshore wind, for otherwise we merely transfer the awful visual consequences of wind turbines from landscape to seascape sites.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The second hopeful approach is to reduce the degree of our dependency on the grid&amp;#x2014;although we shall of course still have to maintain it essentially as a national system; that is quite clear&amp;#x2014;by encouraging many more small-scale, local uses of renewable energy, so that many more people need the grid only as a fallback source of supply. Small-scale wind turbines in remote communities, much more domestic use of solar and photovoltaic power, much more local exploitation of energy crops, all these can make a significant contribution, in each individual case small but in aggregate of real value. I am sorry that that point was not made more powerfully in the report, though I recognise that it does recommend support of community-based energy proposals.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I comment briefly on one or two particular issues. I warmly welcome the suggestion that we should press forward with an integrated policy to encourage waste combustion, together with the exploitation of landfill gas. But I recognise the need for some convincing reassurance for the public over safety issues, for great sensitivity in the siting of waste combustion projects and, of course, for an even more vigorous policy of recycling to reduce the need for landfill sites in the first place.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am sorry about the rather negative tone of the report in its treatment of energy crops. I am glad to see the robust response by the Government. The possibilities are, I believe, considerable, from coppiced wood in particular. There is a splendid example of this not far from Hereford in the large village of Webley, where two schools, a secondary school and a primary school, share an energy efficient and environmentally benign heating system fuelled by locally grown coppiced wood. This has provided local employment and a sense of pride and achievement in the community and has led to real environmental benefits with fuel "miles" down to a maximum of four or five as the coppiced wood is brought in from local woodlands behind a tractor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have already mentioned tidal power and I hope to see a much more enthusiastic government response on this. It is truly shameful that this area is not being properly funded in terms of research. I share the doubts expressed in the report about the practical difficulties and the serious environmental consequences of tidal barrages, despite their enormous potential in terms of power generation. Here I differ from the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Elvel. I know that the noble Lord knows the Welsh highlands well but he does not live on the Severn Estuary. The environmental consequences of tidal barrages are serious indeed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally, I turn to wind power where I declare my particular interest. I am deeply concerned by the committee's criticisms of the planning process in relation to the development of new wind turbine
      
      
      installations&amp;#x2014;I shall not call them farms&amp;#x2014;and by the decisions of some planning inspectors. I am appalled by the suggestion that there should be,
      &lt;q&gt;a presumption in favour of wind farm proposals".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      I am pleased to note the Government's robust and absolutely correct rejection of these criticisms in paragraphs 12 and 22 of their response. I warm to the vigour with which the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford&amp;#x2014;I am sorry to see that he is not present today&amp;#x2014;described the lamentable environmental damage inflicted on central Wales and Cornwall when he stated,
      &lt;q&gt;Visually these things are quite horrific, and are widely complained about, and I think rightly so".&lt;/q&gt;
      There are places where even quite considerable numbers of wind turbines might be sited without undue environmental damage. Blyth Harbour, which is mentioned in the report, is a case in point. Even the installations in Anglesey are not intolerably intrusive in a fairly flat and already quite developed landscape. But to contemplate the ruination of any more of our lonely and so far unspoilt hill country or coastline simply in order to meet this 10 per cent by 2000 target would be environmental vandalism of a disgraceful kind which we would live to regret.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As the committee observes,
      &lt;q&gt;no method of energy generation is totally benign".&lt;/q&gt;
      There have to be compromises, but they must be sensible ones, not driven by panic or by an unrealistic timescale. I very much prefer the DTI's cautious and considered statement that,
      &lt;q&gt;the Government intend to work towards the aim of achieving 10 per cent. of the UK's electricity supply from renewables",&lt;/q&gt;
      to the rather strident demands in the committee report for an unequivocal commitment to the target and determination to reach it by the implementation of "all necessary policies"&amp;#x2014;those are sinister words.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am glad that the Government are playing a "dead bat". If it is a woolly dead bat, I know that it will not score many runs. But I hope that the woolly dead bat may be concealing a time for proper reflection and eventually the production of wise policies which will not be panic driven. By all means let us pursue a coherent, long-term energy policy and see the long-term potential of renewables, which is enormous. However, I am fearful of the prospect of what the committee calls for; namely,
      &lt;q&gt;a renewable energy authority with real teeth".&lt;/q&gt;
      That might be a dangerous animal, especially if it sought to dismantle or override existing planning processes. I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Sainsbury of Turville, will be able to reassure us of the Government's strong commitment to well targeted research into renewables and of their continuation of their tough line on planning which is so encouragingly taken in their response to the committee report.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04696'&gt;
  
  12.6 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04697'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_18'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-swraj-paul' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-swraj-paul" title="Mr Swraj Paul"&gt;Lord Paul&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I start by declaring an interest. I am chairman of Caparo Group, a company involved in manufacturing industry and, as such, a
      
      user of energy. I also wish to take this opportunity to thank the chairman of the sub-committee on which I had the pleasure to serve, the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, for his excellent leadership. Because of the rules governing committees, we shall lose our chairman at the end of the Session. However, as a result of the elections of last week, the House will continue to benefit from the noble Lord's presence. I also congratulate the noble Earl, Lord Cathcart, on his excellent maiden speech. I am sorry that we shall lose the noble Earl but we enjoyed his speech.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is abundantly clear that one of the major issues of the coming century will concern the uses of energy. For most of the 20th century humankind has consumed energy with reckless profligacy and wanton disregard for the environment. Unfortunately the consequences of the past now demand a price and the circumstances in which we have to pay it are not the most favourable. In short, we have to find ways rapidly to reduce our use of fossil fuels, reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases and increase our use of sustainable sources of energy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In any circumstances this is a heavy task. But we have to do it at a time when global population is both increasing and increasing its use of energy. That means questions of entitlements, social justice and all the other debates and demands that currently define the global energy-equity discussion. That larger context gives our deliberations today a certain urgency. As members of the European Union and in our sovereign capacity, we have undertaken commitments to conform with the Kyoto Protocol of 1997.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In conventional perception, the Kyoto Protocol may be just another international agreement&amp;#x2014;a set of guidelines produced by conference diplomacy. To my mind, however, it is much more. It concerns the future of Planet Earth and symbolises our participation in a covenant to sustain human life. Perhaps your Lordships may feel that I overstate the significance of Kyoto, but anything to do with the preservation and improvement of the quality of human life is surely of transcendent importance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That is why the report of the Select Committee, of which I had the honour to be a member, is deeply disturbing. The report makes it evident that, with business as usual, we simply cannot meet our commitments to the targets set by the Kyoto Protocol. Those targets are not exceptionally excessive. With appropriate action, they are well within our capability. If we fail to meet them, that will tell us something disquieting about our own society; our commitment to the human prospect; our ability or inability to mobilise ourselves for tasks of high purpose; and our willingness to keep our sovereign obligations. In many ways, our response to Kyoto is more significant than Kyoto itself.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report makes several recommendations that will enable fulfilment of our undertakings, which will get us from here to there. On balance, the proposals are not radical, but they do require that we urgently advance the development of several known sources of renewable energy&amp;#x2014;perhaps green energy is a more descriptive term.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      Britain's target is to have 10 per cent of our electricity from renewables by the year 2010. To reach that figure will require accelerating the average recent rate of installing renewable electricity generation by a factor of about seven. On the surface, extrapolating current trends, that may seem difficult&amp;#x2014;but with policy changes and vigorous implementation, it should be well within our reach. I say that because of two intangible imperatives that are not easy to quantify but which will certainly have an impact&amp;#x2014;the velocity of technology and Britain's unequalled ability to mobilise in a crisis. That was how this country won the Second World War. We now have to understand that the challenge of energy and the environment is part of the challenge of sustaining life and ultimately is as critical as winning that war.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government's response to the report is encouraging, to the extent that it is almost in complete concurrence with the findings and recommendations of the Select Committee&amp;#x2014;with only one serious difference. I hope that concurrence will translate into vigorous implementation. Generally, I am not a very ardent proponent of greater government intervention&amp;#x2014;yet in matters such as these, only the momentum of government-supported efforts can provide the required co-ordination, incentives and public mobilisation. Naturally, there will be some policy and political pitfalls along the way.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Questions, such as how much the polluter should pay and what special treatment, if any, renewables should get are controversial. But we are a society that has come to realise that environmental relationships imply a balance between current costs and future benefits. What alternative have we, other than to move ahead?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Both the report and the Government's response mentioned the need for enthusing the public, which is essential. No policies and programmes in this area can work effectively without public endorsement. I am convinced that if we have the political will to proceed with resolution and despatch, we can secure that endorsement. Moreover, I see green energy and emission reduction as a category where private and public investment can engage in joint enterprise, underwritten by community involvement. It is an opportunity for an environmental compact that can be a model for sustainable development.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report reminds us that we will not be alone in that effort. Many other responsible nations will be engaged in meeting their own targets. If those nations and our own are successful, this will be an environmentally safer world. That is surely a goal worth striving for.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04698'&gt;
  
  12.16 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04699'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_20'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-dalrymple-1' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-dalrymple-1" title="Mr John Dalrymple"&gt;The Earl of Stair&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the Select Committee is to be congratulated on producing an excellent report. The requirement for the reduction in polluting emissions is long overdue. It is encouraging that the Committee is convinced that the United Kingdom can fulfil its obligation of 10 per cent energy from
      
      renewable sources by the year 2010. However, I agree with the statement in the report that reminds us&amp;#x2014;as did the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, in his introduction&amp;#x2014;that there is a long way to go to increase the use of renewable energy by seven times to approach that figure.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The summary to the report gives guidance, so I will not touch on that aspect further except to endorse the Committee's comments at paragraph 394, concerning the agencies that will have to co-ordinate and co-operate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Several years ago, I conducted extensive research into the gasification of wood chips and other biomass for industrial use as steam. At that time the fuel was not competitive against hydrocarbon fuels because they were much cheaper and considerably easier to handle. Biomass has the disadvantage that the higher the moisture content, the more energy is used in the gasification of the biomass to expel the moisture and still produce a relevant energy output. The second big disadvantage is the large volume of low-density material that has to be moved from the forest or field to the factory. That increases the cost in direct relation to the distance of haul. At that time there was no Kyoto Summit and no environmental price was put on emission pollution from hydrocarbons.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report investigates all currently feasible forms of renewable energy. I am encouraged that there is a perceived use for most of the by-products of our wasteful life. It will be a considerable improvement if, by reusing some of that material to generate electricity, we will be left with a negative CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; gain. It shows a good example of planning, if we can combine landfill sites with electricity generation&amp;#x2014;perhaps fuelling the generation by combustible rubbish and using the domestic waste to generate methane in a dual-fuel furnace.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If such waste processing schemes are to work, the important parts will be planning and public relations in regard to the environmental impact that the plants will have. Scare stories and rumours, particularly about dioxins and heavy metals, can cause serious delays in the development of power systems.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      While wind generation is seen as an immediate opportunity, I am disappointed that the outlook for energy crops is not so encouraging. In line with the European reorganisation of the CAP, this would have been the perfect opportunity to encourage fuel crops on surplus agricultural land.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Forestry timber in Scotland has suffered a drop in market sales of 37 per cent over the past two years, due partly to the strong pound, but also to the mass import of cheaply produced timber from eastern Europe. There is a tremendous resource of timber and timber residues that could be converted to fuel for regional power plants; making use of the report's suggested assistance from the Government to start the system off.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report implies that energy crops are more expensive than others, such as landfill and wind power. However, with sympathetic planning that could be improved. First, much of the cost for energy costs lies
      
      
      in the transport distance the material has to be taken by road to a power plant. If the exemption on tax which is currently applied to agricultural diesel was extended to renewable energy supplies and restricted to specified vehicles on the road, the price would be dramatically reduced. Secondly, if a 0.6 pence per kilowatt climate change levy were to be removed, the price would be further reduced. The report suggests several ways in which this can be achieved through community incentives. I do not wish to go into them any further at this stage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Wind turbines have recently been one of the most controversial forms of renewable energy. Without doubt, wind farms are extremely unattractive because the only place they are remotely efficient is on the top of hills. It is of relatively little relevance that they have become quieter with recent development. There is a further unknown impact on the populations of bird life which live in the vicinity of these farms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, I agree that offshore wind farms should be developed. The only doubt I have is that these sea-borne units will hot be sufficiently high above the surface to make efficient use of the wind flows. I suspect that, from an environmental aspect, anything involving the sea or tidal flows will prove too controversial, too expensive and too complicated in the short term.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report is very interesting. It gives great encouragement to getting under way some environmentally beneficial power generation. On the continent&amp;#x2014;especially in Scandinavia&amp;#x2014;localised power generation has been actively encouraged for many years. I hope that the Government will be able to facilitate the development of renewable energy in line with the report's recommendations.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04700'&gt;
  
  12.22 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04701'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_22'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-anthony-gueterbock' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-anthony-gueterbock" title="Mr Anthony Gueterbock"&gt;Lord Berkeley&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, in the past few days, many noble Lords may have seen in the press quite a lot of discussion about the Kyoto targets. I recall reading that my right honourable friend the Deputy Prime Minister was slightly critical of the United States for not doing more to play its part in reducing the targets. There has been a big debate between the developed world, developed nations, and the third world as to who should set the example. This provides an opportunity for the member states of the European Union to set an example. We may be wobbling a bit in our targets&amp;#x2014;to which I shall come later&amp;#x2014;but we are doing quite well. It is terribly important that the United States plays its part as a demonstration to the rest of the world. There is total agreement that the targets have to be met or bettered.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have the honour to be a member of the committee. I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, on chairing it fairly, with humour, on keeping us moving and on stopping us from developing our own pet projects&amp;#x2014;some of which will probably emerge during the debate. But that is what these debates are about.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My feeling about the subject is that we do not need to be so cautious; the technology is there for many of the systems, as we have heard this morning. We can
      
      argue about which technologies, but, taken in the round, they are all there or can be developed quite quickly in a process which will reduce their price. We have heard an awful lot about technologies which are good or which are bad. We could move towards the stage where we say that all these technologies are fine&amp;#x2014;we want the electricity&amp;#x2014;but we do not want it generated in our backyard because our backyard is nice. It could be on the end of a jetty in Blyth; not many people live there and it does not matter so much. It could be out at sea, provided we do not see it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When I was much younger I worked briefly on the Severn Barrage. I was interested to hear what my noble friend Lord Williams of Elvel said about that. There are, equally, environmental pressures and problems for the bird and marine life connected with that scheme.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We must not forget that there are environmental pressures with regard to greenhouse gases&amp;#x2014;which is where we started. If we do not want to have any electricity generators, that is fine, but we have to balance these matters. One could call the reasons for global warming "environmental vandalism", as the right reverend Prelate said. We have to balance all these matters&amp;#x2014;but it is a question of how we do so.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that wind technology is proven. The committee saw it in operation in Denmark; it is quiet. I believe that there is a place for it, but I accept that it should not be on the tops of beautiful mountains. I see also a role for wind generators&amp;#x2014; if that is what we like to call them&amp;#x2014;on some of the structures that litter the Thames estuary, which the people who live there probably see. Many are relics from previous oil or gas explorations or from wartime defences. They do not look particularly nice and one could probably build on them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Offshore technology for wind generation is exactly the same as that for onshore generation, except that the wind probably blows more constantly offshore and there may be more problems with connecting to the grid. But the technology is there and should be looked at. We have talked about tidal power. A lot could be done also with the photovoltaic in the longer term. I shall return to that matter shortly.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My general conclusion is that renewables can achieve the target. The question is which ones&amp;#x2014;it is probably several&amp;#x2014;and how. The report went into whether the target could be achieved with a number of small projects developed locally. I hope that the Government will pick this up; their response was not quite clear. Again, we saw this in Denmark. It is not a question of which project but of local communities having ownership of whatever is the plant or facility. That ownership can be financial ownership, community ownership or a kind of technical ownership. The community gets something out of it&amp;#x2014;which may be reduced costs for electricity, pride in what they have achieved or a benefit to the environment, whatever it is.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There needs to be a mechanism to encourage this practice. The Government have said they will do so through the regional development agencies. Whether
      
      
      targets are the right solution&amp;#x2014;as the noble Lord, Lord Cathcart, said in his excellent maiden speech&amp;#x2014;should also be looked at.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Let me now turn briefly to the photovoltaic question. It was mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, in his opening remarks. I believe that the technology is proven. The noble Lord spoke about the house in Oxford which some of us visited. I know of another project which, sadly, illustrates a similar problem.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Greenpeace sponsored a demonstration in three houses on the Peabody Estate in Silvertown, east London. A very small installation of slightly more than a kilowatt was situated on top of each roof at a cost of approximately &amp;#x00A3;6,000. The objective was that the tenants should save &amp;#x00A3;60 a year in electricity costs. In that kind of estate, &amp;#x00A3;60 a year is quite a saving. It is more than half of the cold weather payment that we were debating recently. The problem was that they met the same obstruction&amp;#x2014;I use the word advisedly&amp;#x2014;from the electricity board as happened in Oxford. It took a year to negotiate the contract. The board sold at 8p and bought at 2.9p&amp;#x2014;which are figures similar to those mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Geddes. The board required the tenants to hire a special new meter; they could not buy it. In Oxford, the board reserved the right to read the meter every 30 minutes while the exporting was going on, and it was going to charge &amp;#x00A3;26 for every reading. In both cases this would have resulted in the tenants paying the electricity board for the privilege of exporting power. The board came up with many technical reasons to hide behind what I believe are straight bullying tactics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Net or revenue reverse metering, as the report said, is feasible for quite high levels of inputs, and is applicable to photovoltaic, small wind powers and small hydro powers. I believe that the public, investors and developers are hungry to participate in using renewables of whatever kind. However, they need a policy and incentives. They also need to feel that they are being fairly treated. Projects like the photovoltaic cells used in Silvertown, if installed widely in affordable housing, could greatly assist in reducing social exclusion at a very low cost. However, they must be able to sell back the electricity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I must say that I was very unimpressed with the evidence presented to the committee from the regulators. They did not seem to believe that net metering or helping small-scale installations had anything to do with them. They felt that it comprised a great number of little people who were trying to dribble back into the grid and that the big boys would not like it. But lots of dribbles make a river and that river could significantly contribute to the 10 per cent target. For that reason, I hope that the Government will provide instructions to the regulators to change their policy on the matter.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I may say a few words on jobs. &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Power for the New Millennium: Benefiting from Tomorrow's Renewable Energy Markets&lt;/span&gt; is an interesting report produced for Greenpeace by Forum for the Future. It points out that five to 10 times more jobs would be
      
      created in the construction and operation of renewables than are available today with gas-powered stations. My message to the Minister is that I do not see a downside in opting for renewable energy sources. It is a win-win situation. I hope that the Government will have the courage, in the best sense of the word, to move a little faster on the issue.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04702'&gt;
  
  12.31 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04703'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_24'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;The Earl of Cranbrook&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, like other speakers, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Geddes and his committee on producing a powerful report. I also welcome the maiden speech of my noble friend Lord Cathcart. It was a thoughtful and profound contribution in many ways.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Not only is it Guy Fawkes Day today, as has been drawn to our attention by the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley; it has been the week during which we had the fifth meeting of the parties to the Convention of Climate Change. In preparation for that, the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research prepared an updated paper for the conference of parties. The paper has been available on the Web for a little time, and has been published by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions under the title &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Climate Change and its Impacts.&lt;/span&gt; The foreword written by the Deputy Prime Minister must be one the gloomiest that has ever been written over the name of a Secretary of State for the Environment. I am sorry that the right reverend Prelate has left the Chamber because the Deputy Prime Minister says here that:
      &lt;q&gt;without action to curb emissions [of greenhouse gases], many parts of the world will suffer severely from the effects of climate change in the lifetime of many people alive today &amp;#x2026; even stabilising carbon dioxide at twice pre-industrial levels, which is the EU objective&amp;#x2014;and which represents a considerable challenge&amp;#x2014;will nevertheless entail significant damage".&lt;/q&gt;
      He goes on to list the severe damage that may occur in many parts of the world under the latest Hadley predictions. The only totally bizarre point here is that the right honourable gentleman Mr John Prescott has chosen one of his "chubby cherub" photographs to head the piece. I strongly advise his public relations team to acquire a much more set-jawed, determined and resolute image to accompany such serious and gloomy messages. This is a very real and serious issue.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In paragraphs 248 and 249 of the report my noble friend Lord Geddes makes it clear that "renewables" in the terms of the committee's report and under the terms of the United Kingdom targets do include municipal wastes. At the same time as Sub-Committee B of my noble friend Lord Geddes was conducting this inquiry, Sub-Committee C, which I chair, was examining the proposal for a Council Directive on Incineration of Wastes, COM(98)588 final. Our report was ordered to be published a fortnight earlier than that for my noble friend Lord Geddes&amp;#x2014;we just beat him to the post&amp;#x2014;but the Government have been much more laggardly in their reply, which we received only on 29th October. However, I have given notice that today I shall be speaking on matters of cross-interest between the two reports.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      As has been indicated in the Government's reply to the report on the incineration of wastes, progress on the waste incineration directive has been diverted by action in the European Parliament, by decisions taken at the June 1999 Environmental Council and by the publication of an amended waste incineration proposal by the European Commission. Furthermore, the whole issue is now under review by the new European Parliament. For that reason, my intervention today does not preclude a much fuller debate at a later date when a clearer picture emerges on the question of incineration processes. However, particular attention will need to be paid to wider aspects, including the position of incineration in an overall strategy for wastes management, emission standards and public health issues. However, it is appropriate for me to thank our specialist adviser, Professor Judith Petts, who is now deputy director of the Centre for Environmental Research and Training at the University of Birmingham. Furthermore, I thank the witnesses who assisted us and my fellow members of the committee who took part in the inquiry.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Wastes are substances that must be destroyed or disposed of under safe conditions. One disposal route that can be taken is incineration under controlled conditions. In whatever form it re-emerges, the revised wastes incineration directive will surely contain the requirement that best endeavours must be made to utilise the resultant energy. For that reason, the key point for today's debate is that wastes can substitute primary fuels in thermal processes for the production of energy. In that way, the incineration of wastes can lessen the overall production of carbon dioxide, which is the most abundant of the greenhouse gases to threaten the world's climate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The debate today is focused on electricity generation, but it is actually far more efficient to make direct use of the heat of combustion. The members of Sub-Committee C were impressed by the extent to which cement kilns in particular can directly use the heat from burning certain wastes with or without pre-treatment. That process is known by the general name of co-incineration. The committee firmly recommended that so long as it is possible to comply with emission standards, all opportunities should be seized for the increased use of co-incineration. Co-incinerated wastes include treated liquid wastes which are marketed as secondary liquid fuels. In paragraph 85 of its report, the committee recommended that no barriers should be put in the way of continued use of secondary liquid fuels except those that can be justified on health and environmental grounds.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our attitude was the same towards co-incinerated solid wastes; for example, arisals from carpet manufacture and so forth. In Belgium, I have seen problematic wastes successfully co-incinerated in cement kilns; for instance, sewage sludge mixed with sawdust from furniture manufacturers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      I therefore welcome the Government's positive response to the committee's set of recommendations on co-incineration&amp;#x2014;and I shall quote from the government response to the report from Sub-Committee C&amp;#x2014;
      &lt;q&gt;properly regulated, this technology can recover significant value from wastes, displace the use of fossil fuels and help to reduce fuel costs for businesses".&lt;/q&gt;
      In their response the Government added their views on the treatment of used tyres for incinerated waste. The European Union directive will ban whole tyres from landfill by 2003 and shredded tyres by 2006. That will create a very considerable problem for the disposal of useless and worn tyres. In their response the Government have stated that they,
      &lt;q&gt;consider that recovery in properly controlled cement kilns will have a key and increasing role to play".&lt;/q&gt;
      In that context, I presume that "recovery" means energy recovery. I hope that when he replies the noble Lord, Lord Sainsbury, will assure us that there will now be a strong government effort to promote such disposal routes through co-incineration with the direct recovery of energy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government's response also supports the conclusion of both committees that in a system of sustainable waste management there will be a need for modern municipal waste incinerators with tight emission controls to protect the environment and public health. Furthermore, it may provide combined heat and power where practicable. In this area the government response is somewhat defensive. It attempts to defend the UK record for combined heat and power from waste. However, the figures speak for themselves. There are only two schemes in Sheffield and Nottingham. What should be the flagship scheme, the south-east London SELCHP scheme, is a misnomer because of failure to agree by the local authorities involved which it would serve. There is no combined heat and power being provided by SELCHP.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Sustainable waste management will give proper emphasis to the waste hierarchy. The prior objectives, as the right reverend Prelate said, must always be for waste reduction, recovery and recycling. The key question posed by Sub-Committee C is: what additional capacity will be needed? In this country only 10 waste incinerators are currently in operation, disposing of about 7 per cent of national waste arisings. The noble Lord, Lord Geddes, referred to a &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu&lt;/span&gt; experience. I, too, have a &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu&lt;/span&gt; experience. In 1989 I chaired the precursor of Sub-Committee C on the issue of incinerators. At that time we warned against the loss of existing incineration facilities. They were lost and difficulties are now being encountered in restoring them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When we took evidence from the Minister, the right honourable Michael Meacher, the departmental estimate was that between 28 and 165 new incinerators would be needed in the United Kingdom to meet the
      
      
      targets of the landfill directive. As a committee, we were astonished at the imprecision of those predictions and we commented:
      &lt;q&gt;We have been offered no indication where these plants might be sited, or their capacity".&lt;/q&gt;
      The answer, in the Government's response of 29th October, when one finds it, is quite simple. The Government state that:
      &lt;q&gt;it will never be possible for the Government to suggest an exact number of facilities".&lt;/q&gt;
      Sub-Committee C also said:
      &lt;q&gt;We find it inconceivable that, without direct government intervention, as many as 165 plants would ever receive planning permission".&lt;/q&gt;
      The role of the planning system has been a prominent feature of the debate so far. The report of the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, deals in some detail with the difficulties that are encountered in planning permission for renewable energy installations and recommends that the national policy for renewable energy should be an integral part of planning guidelines. What happens at present? As the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Elvel, indicated, there is considerable opposition to, for instance, wind farms. I notice that the Council for National Parks, which is an organisation I support, listed as one of its three main achievements of the past year successful opposition to a proposed wind farm fought against through a long and expensive public inquiry. In another context, some other local action group or NGO may well be boasting of its achievement in beating off a CHP incinerator for municipal waste.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Denmark has been widely quoted. Denmark has a high level of municipal incineration providing combined heat and power. When we visited West Jutland recently on another committee visit we found that some 10 per cent of the power supply is already provided by wind generation and there is a target there of 50 per cent, apparently with full public consent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So the United Kingdom has fallen behind. Whatever one may say about our planning system, one has to face up to the fact that it is incurably adversarial. A solution must be found to shorten the process and to eliminate the resentment and the reaction that inevitably arise after huge contested inquiries where one party always feels aggrieved and resentful.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I agree with the Government in rejecting the solution put forward by Sub-Committee B that there should be a general planning presumption in favour either of wind farms or waste incinerators. There are important planning conditions in both cases. But the Government's response to the report is dead bat and is woolly. There are seven paragraphs of total obfuscation and obscure jargon ending up with the rather extraordinary sentence that this process will,
      &lt;q&gt;encourage regional planning bodies to set targets in RPG, where sensible to do so, for the structure plan and UDP areas within the region consistent with the regional target provided by the regional framework. Advice on this will be in the final version of PPG11, due to be issued later this year".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      We must wait for that with bated breath. In Wales there is separate planning policy guidance and in Scotland we are told that the promotion of renewables is devolved to the Scottish Executive and is an issue of considerable interest to the Scottish Parliament. The only catch phrase I do not see is "world class benchmarks".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The response to the committee's report is weak and temporising. Something has gone wrong. When these targets are achievable, as the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, said, and when there is a great variety of ways in which renewable energy can be obtained, why cannot we get our act together? I believe that one of the problems is the mixed and uneven devolved constitutional structure that has been put in place. That lacks the defining federal centre with the obligations and the powers to take a lead on critically important global and national issues. It seems to me that the United Kingdom Government, which we have to distinguish quite frequently from the administration of England&amp;#x2014;although it is the same people at different levels&amp;#x2014;have abdicated entirely the role of national government in an important area. We are left with a system which is so devolved that it lacks the ability to come together in a coherent way.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The solution proposed by the committee for the establishment of a dedicated agency has been rejected by the Government but I am pleased to see that the Government have accepted the committee's recommendation that they should undertake an authoritative public attitude survey. But I think that much more than that is needed. What I should like the Minister to say is that he will commit the Government immediately to a national consensus conference sponsored by the Government and clearly led by central government but without preconditions and involving, if I may use the jargon, all the stakeholders, including the NGOs, the energy producers and the vast range of people who have a special interest in different renewable processes. We need an immediate focus because the problem is urgent. We need to determine what renewable facilities are needed, including wind farms and waste incinerators with CHP, and where they will be placed. Let us predict in advance where these will be needed and where they will be acceptable so that the process can march on with the speed that is necessary.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It has already been said in the debate that action is needed on an heroic scale. The Government cannot opt out of the national duty of governance that will be sorely needed with regard to the global disasters that are predicted by the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions and the Deputy Prime Minister in his foreword to the Hadley Centre report. Those disasters can only be alleviated because, as the report makes clear, many of them can no longer be averted.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_26'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-clive-brooke' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-clive-brooke" title="Mr Clive Brooke"&gt;Lord Brooke of Alverthorpe&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, as a member of the European Communities Committee, I pay tribute to our chairman, the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, for the excellent leadership which he gave us
      
      
      throughout this complex inquiry. I express gratitude, too, to our specialist adviser, David Milborrow, and our clerk, Roger Morgan, for helping us to produce a wide-ranging but coherent and constructive report on this important topic. I should also like to thank the many witnesses who gave evidence to us. I hope they feel that their efforts were worth while. I should like to thank the Government for responding to our report. We had a quite lengthy response from them. Notwithstanding the length, I have to join previous speakers in expressing a shade of disappointment with what they have had to say. I rather suspect that many of those who gave evidence will share those feelings.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Why do I say that? I sense that as time has passed there appears to have been some weakening of the Government's manifesto commitment to a new and strong drive to develop renewable sources of energy; specifically, achieving 10 per cent of UK electricity requirements from renewables by 2010. Further qualifications of this target seem to appear every time another review or statement on renewables is made. The statement to us in October reads:
      &lt;q&gt;Development of renewable energy, along with the promotion of improved energy efficiency and CHP, is an essential component of any cost-effective climate change strategy".&lt;/q&gt;
      We have no problem with that. It continues:
      &lt;q&gt;A combination of all these factors will be needed".&lt;/q&gt;
      We have no problem with that in the committee. The statement goes on:
      &lt;q&gt;The Government has announced its intention of working towards the aim of achieving 10&amp;#x0025; of the UK's electricity supply from renewable sources".&lt;/q&gt;
      That was quoted by my noble friend Lord Geddes. However, he missed something out. The statement went on to say,
      &lt;q&gt;as soon as possible".&lt;/q&gt;
      So in fact a further qualification has been added to that.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That hardly sounds like a firm and ringing recommitment to the 2010 target for renewables or indeed to the 2003 target. Moreover, our confidence in that has been further undermined by the Government's announcement that another statement on renewables will come some time next year after a new draft climate change programme has been published around the turn of the year. The latter, we are, told will recommit the Government to ensuring that the UK meets its climate change targets. That is good news, as is the subsequent distribution of the Kyoto target in the European Union. The Government state that there will only be moves towards meeting the more challenging domestic goals for renewables. As I understand it, that represents a shift in policy position since the Government first talked to us on the matter 12 months ago. I should be grateful if my noble friend would tell me whether I am right or wrong. I must say that I should prefer to be wrong.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Will my noble friend tell the House when the renewables statement is likely to be made? Will it be a programme with targets, and if not, why not? Is he aware that doubts are beginning to arise, and also
      
      within the renewables industry, about the Government's ability to deliver their target of 5 per cent of electricity from renewable energy sources from 2003? That is worrying. While the 2010 target has always been stretching, so far there has not been the same amount of questioning about delivery of the 5 per cent target for 2003. That depends significantly on presently developing, and existing, contracts for electricity from renewables being maintained. As regards contracts reached on the non-fossil fuel obligation (NFFO) arrangements, with the restructuring of the electricity industry the NFFO support mechanisms are likely to go. So there are understandable fears that renewable contracts could be at risk. In turn, the 2003 target could be at risk. Like other speakers, I ask my noble friend the Minister to endeavour to assuage the fears, particularly in the industry, and at least recommit the Government firmly to the 5 per cent target for 2003.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government have already said that that is,
      &lt;q&gt;critically dependent on maintaining the integrity of the existing contracts through the reform process currently under way in the electricity market".&lt;/q&gt;
      Will my noble friend indicate how they intend to achieve that? Does he foresee the plans being acceptable to existing contractors? If not, will my noble friend listen to their concerns and meet with them?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I apologise for rather labouring these points and concentrating almost exclusively on the issue of targets&amp;#x2014;I was pleased to note that the right reverend Prelate took up the same point; indeed, he voiced criticism&amp;#x2014;but unless there is a firm commitment in relation to those targets, the many statements that we have made in the report and the recommendations in other areas are worth nothing. We really must stick with the attempt to obtain firm commitments from the Government.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On the positive side, I welcome the lead role that the Government adopted at Kyoto. The UK accepted that urgent action is required on global warming and climate change. As we heard today, the Hadley Report re-emphasises the fact that there are even greater problems ahead, that there is no time to be wasted and that we must move quickly. I am pleased that the Deputy Prime Minister has taken the matter on board promptly.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The UK adopted more onerous greenhouse gas obligations than most of our European partners, and we set internal targets that go well beyond even those savings. The committee believes, as I do personally, that we should stick to them. This is a global issue. There is no escape from the consequences of our failure, or that of others, to act. We must use our influence with other countries within the EU, and especially with the USA, to encourage an adequate level of commitment and a sense or urgency&amp;#x2014; and in China also. The best approach is to set a good example by doing it ourselves. Our report sets out a way forward based on that example. I commend it to the House.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

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  12.54 p.m.
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  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_28'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Lord Lucas&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend on the production of this excellent and timely report. I, uniquely among speakers so far, remain a sceptic about global warming. If we manage to double the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, my judgment is that, with luck, it will postpone the onset of the next Ice Age by 200 years, and I am in favour of that. In the meantime, it will help my garden grow, and I am also in favour of that. If anyone is listening, we could do with a bit of global warming in the Chamber at the moment. I do not know whether there is a tap that can be turned, but I have been getting very cold sitting on these Benches.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Regardless of matters of timing, and however relevant or irrelevant the quota for Kyoto, it is clear that the fossil fuels that we are using will run out and that there will be a need to develop other means of supplying energy. In the process of fossil fuels running out, we shall at one time or another encounter some pretty severe shocks in regard to supply and price, which, if we have not prepared for them by putting in place a good quantity of renewable energy, will be much more damaging for this country than they need be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We face a future that is unpredictable in the long term. The Government and successive governments must approach the matter with determination and consistency. The first thing that a government must do&amp;#x2014;more so than the present Government are doing&amp;#x2014;is to provide for research. That is a long-term area, and one where there are a number of possible solutions, none of which yet seems likely to be "the one". We cannot see where that is likely to happen. It is essential to keep research going on a broad range of activities, and not be put off by my noble friend's pessimism about the possibility of agriculture providing some of the sources of energy. We must look broadly and widely, and make sure that we do not attempt to back individual horses at this stage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government must also develop the technologies that are beginning to look promising, and must support their early commercial development. Too many technologies have had their birth in this country but have gone on to be developed elsewhere because we have not allowed them to begin their commercialisation here. When we come to technologies such as photovoltaic, in which we have a major company as a world leader, it is essential that we continue to provide opportunities in this country for that technology to be used.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One crucial thing that the Government can do in that connection is attempt to remove some of the distortions that are present in the system. Net metering has been referred to by many speakers and it is mentioned in my noble friend's report. It is an enormous disincentive to people trying out small projects on a local basis. At present, the grid can clearly afford inputs from such sources without incurring any great costs or distortions. It is essential that we should allow those types of projects to go forward on the most profitable and commercially
      
      sensible basis by offering net metering and not imposing on them the extraordinary costs that the generators seem to want to impose.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We must also concentrate on storage. I have not seen that mentioned in the report. I declare an interest. Local schemes, particularly those that rely on intermittent sources of energy, require methods of storing that energy so that it can be dispensed over the period in which it is likely to be used locally; otherwise, we need to rely on a National Grid into which the energy can be fed. One of the principal contenders in that area, although it is not the only technology by any means, is the use of fuel cells to produce a hydrogen-based economy. Intermittent power is used to produce hydrogen, and the hydrogen is converted into power as required. That kind of avenue and that type of technology should come within this area. We are some way away from major commercial possibilities; however, the Government should not neglect that method when considering renewables. Sources of energy produced locally have many advantages. They can use local types of fuel, initiative and labour that are not available on a larger scale. If ways can be found to use those energy sources locally rather than transport them long distances, it is more likely that they will be commercially viable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This report comes at a time when it appears that the Government are flagging in their resolve. Although I do not share the great fear of global warming that appears to motivate so many people in this area, I believe that it is something on which the Government must press ahead. They must make clear their planning policies and support for small-scale renewable energy initiatives so that they do not run into difficulties of the kind which mean that in the end we lose out on this technology.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  1 p.m.
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  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991105_HOL_30'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-frank-judd' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-frank-judd" title="Mr Frank Judd"&gt;Lord Judd&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, at the outset I must declare an interest. Apart from my membership of various environmental organisations, I am an honorary vice-president of the Council for National Parks and serve on the north west regional committee of the National Trust. I am also fortunate to live in a national park. Tribute should be paid to the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, supported by the members of the committee, for this interesting report. If it is in order, tributes should also be paid to others, such as the noble Earl, Lord Cranbrook, under whose distinguished chairmanship I have been privileged to serve on Sub-Committee C, for all that they have done on kindred committees.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Sometimes I feel that committees of this House which deal with environmental concerns haplessly struggle to contain the consequences of a situation that is out of our control and that we are fiddling with detail while a potentially terminal environmental crisis gathers momentum. Whether it be waste management, biodiversity or power, we could yet be damned by history for masking the symptoms of a fatal social disease; namely, that our present style of materialist growth simply cannot be sustained. If we do not look out we shall bury ourselves in our own waste,
      
      
      irreparably harm the globe's ecological systems, destroy biodiversity and eliminate the space and aesthetic balance, not least the beauty of our countryside, without which the wellbeing of our species will undoubtedly be damaged, perhaps fatally.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Remember, all the warning signs are there, not least on global warming and its devastating consequences. While a mere 25 per cent of the world's population continues to consume 80 per cent of the world's resources, God knows what will happen as the excluded demand their fair share. We simply must reduce the waste that we produce, limit the energy that we consume, protect the open spaces&amp;#x2014;the lungs of humanity&amp;#x2014;stop talking about agricultural policy with certain environmental responsibilities and begin to talk about environmental management, of which agriculture is merely a part. These are the urgent realities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The truth is that a grip on environmental strategy is central to any kind of relevant politics. That raises the most immense issues of access, equity and justice. Without this priority becoming a constant, evident reality for the United Kingdom, and the international community as a whole, all our work in Select Committees may add up to nothing more than occupational therapy for those of us who do it&amp;#x2014;card playing while the "Titanic" sinks.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      For all those reasons, I am 100 per cent in favour of producing energy from a variety of renewable resources. Among them I welcome wind power, but I favour it as a means to a decent, balanced and sustainable society. Wind power, or any other alternative power, must be planned in such a way that it does not destroy what it is there to serve. That is why much clearer guidance is needed on where wind power developments in either onshore or offshore locations are environmentally acceptable and where they are not. There is an urgent need to use stakeholder inputs to regional, county and district planning in order to identify the most environmentally suitable areas for the development of renewable energy in general and the wind energy resource in particular.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There are indeed places where wind and other renewable energy generation can be developed in an environmentally benign way. The coast north of Workington, Liverpool docks, or Blyth Quay, to which the report refers, are all examples. Renewable energy strategies, such as those pioneered in Cumbria and Cornwall, are needed to guide developers to such places. Their preparation should involve full public consultation and participation by local communities. However, we must beware of putting all the load on the relatively disadvantaged, creating new social sinks where we expect to find the power generation, the incinerators, the sewage works and the poor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When we consider future planning for renewables it is essential that some kind of environmental appraisal is built into the incentive process. This will help to weed out the most environmentally questionable applications. I think of those on the fringes of national parks that keep being refused but will not take no for an answer. For example, there is a proposal for a wind
      
      power station at Mynydd Cilciffeth on the edge of the Pembroke National Park which I understand has recently raised its head for the third time in three years. Such an appraisal will also help to direct developers towards more environmentally acceptable locations, thereby reducing delays in the planning system.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Government guidance should make it much clearer where such developments are acceptable and where they are not. Nationally designated special landscapes and their fringes need stronger protection within planning policy guidance on renewables. Planning policy guidance in this context should underline that national parks are afforded the highest status of protection for landscape and scenic beauty: It is essential that planning guidance is not weakened to secure permission for developments that would otherwise be unacceptable, particularly in designated areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      By being clearer on the appropriate siting of wind energy developments and in future introducing a form of prior environmental appraisal, the planning system would hold the key to the Government's policy on renewables. It would enhance countryside protection, increase public support for renewables and direct developers to environmentally more acceptable locations. It must be recognised that the sensitive boundary zones around the national parks are under great pressure from large-scale wind energy development.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Considerable pressure is being exerted by developers. The boundary zones of the Lake District, Snowdonia, the Pembrokeshire coast and Yorkshire Dales have been particular targets. As turbine size increases, the visually sensitive zone around the national parks will obviously become enlarged. For all those reasons, financial support should be given to a wider mix of renewable technologies, such as photovoltaics and solar energy. That will increase the choices available to the public and local authorities in deciding what renewables are appropriate for their areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The non-fossil fuel obligation inevitably encourages developers to target the economically most advantageous sites. As my noble friend Lord Williams of Elvel powerfully argued, this means that areas of greatest landscape sensitivity are the preferred choice for developers because that is where the highest wind speeds are to be found. NFFO's narrow focus on cost has encouraged the insensitive siting of wind turbines in or near nationally recognised landscapes. I believe it is highly questionable to claim that NFFO has been a considerable success because of the environmental benefits of the wind energy projects that it has supported. Surely, financial contracts for new wind power developments should take account of a range of environmental considerations, including the landscape and wild life impacts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to put five specific questions to my noble friend. First, does he agree that policies for renewable resources should be set within a strategic framework for energy policy, with emphasis given to measures to promote a reduction in energy
      
      
      consumption and efficiency? Secondly, does he agree that public policy guidelines should be speedily reviewed with a view to giving clear strategic guidance on developing regionally based policies for renewables and stronger protection for national parks and their sensitive fringes? Thirdly, does my noble friend agree that the planting of large-scale energy crops and the deployment of offshore wind turbines should be brought under the control of the local use planning system? Fourthly, does he agree that financial support should be made available for a portfolio of renewable technologies, including small-scale and community-based schemes? Fifthly and finally, does my noble friend agree that projects should be required to obtain planning permission prior to receiving a financial contract, and there should be a sustainability appraisal for each round of contracts under the future support arrangements?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Wild landscapes are a valid and genuine sustainable development issue. Future generations will need clean energy, but they will also need open and wild countryside. I believe that if ever there was a dimension of human affairs where the drive and rules of the market must be balanced by intervention for the common good, unarguably this is one.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;ol class='xoxo'&gt;
  
&lt;/ol&gt;
</content>
    <author>
      <name>Millbank Systems</name>
    </author>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <id>tag:hansard.millbanksystems.com,:Section/2519504</id>
    <published>1999-11-04T00:00:00+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-11-04T00:00:00+00:00</updated>
    <link type="text/html" href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/lords/1999/nov/04/monetary-policy-committee-select" rel="alternate"/>
    <title type="html">Monetary Policy Committee: Select Committee Report, Lords Sitting of 4 November 1999</title>
    <content type="html">&lt;cite class='section'&gt;HL Deb 04 November 1999 vol 606 cc993-1085&lt;/cite&gt;

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  3.40 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-maurice-peston' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-maurice-peston" title="Mr Maurice Peston"&gt;Lord Peston&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I beg to move the Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is with a certain amount of pride and a great deal of pleasure that I introduce today's debate. I am sure that I speak for all noble Lords in saying how delighted we are that no fewer than four new colleagues will make their maiden speeches today. We look forward with great interest to hearing what they have to say.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      At the outset, I thank our clerk, David Batt, without whose administrative skills little would have been accomplished and certainly the report would not have been published on the due date. Our thanks are also extended to our special adviser, Professor Wickens of York University. Having been one of the first, if not the first, economist to advise a parliamentary committee, I am aware of how difficult and frustrating such a task can be. Perhaps I can use a form of words that is often placed in the first footnote of an academic article: we are indebted to Professor Wickens for removing so many mistakes from our report, but he is not responsible for those that remain.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall make three general propositions. First, the committee was determined to avoid party political matters in all its deliberations and in its conclusions. We succeeded in that aim and I have no intention of making any party points today at all. I hope other noble Lords will follow my example.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Secondly, although the membership of your Lordships' committee, as one journalist put it, is exceedingly high-powered and knowledgeable on matters of economics, finance and industry, we did not allow our personal views to come between us and the witnesses. Our recommendations followed from what we heard, not from what we had decided beforehand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Thirdly, although I have remarked only half jokingly that your Lordships' committee could run monetary policy at least as well as the Monetary Policy Committee, we were at pains not to second-guess those who have responsibility for such matters. At no time did we comment on any individual decision and I do not propose to do so today, tempting though it may be to tell your Lordships what I think of the recent increase in the rate of interest that has just been announced.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am convinced that we have succeeded in our remit and have met the standards that we set ourselves. More to the point, we have met the standards that your Lordships have set for other committees. That is most important, as the committee was a new departure for the House of Lords. I am convinced that the experiment was necessary so that this House can make a full contribution to the scrutiny of economic policy
      
      in its new form. If your Lordships accept the view that we have been successful, at the beginning of the new Session noble Lords can place the committee on a permanent basis. Let me add with my usual modesty that I put in no claim for myself or my colleagues in regard to membership of the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our purpose was strategic. It was to take an overall view of the policy-making process, interpret what was happening and subject it to critical scrutiny. Monetary policy now has a statutory basis which in British terms is somewhat unusual. As the aims of policy and, to some extent, the means were set out in an Act of Parliament, we have been concerned with textual exegesis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Not surprisingly, the remit of the Monetary Policy Committee has been interpreted in more than one way. We have noted that our witnesses have not been in full agreement as to what the remit is, let alone what it should be. I admit that I was more confused at the end of our inquiry about what the expression "subject to that" meant than I was at the beginning. I am coming to the conclusion that Section 11(b) of the Act is meaningless. That will need further investigation and explanation in the future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Similarly, as the dynamics of the economy are such that monetary policy works with a complicated set of time-lags, present events are relevant only in so far as they are good indicators for the future. A simple example is that one does not control today's housing boom by tightening policy today. It is a commonplace of the theory of economic policy that if a boom were about to end anyway, tightening policy now would exacerbate the downturn rather than mitigate it. Policy making that ignores the dynamics can destabilise the economy. That is hard for the public to understand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Therefore, I agree with the Bank of England that if low inflation is the remit&amp;#x2014;my purpose today is not to argue about that&amp;#x2014;we cannot relax if the current rate of inflation is at the right level. We must always look at where we are going and not where we are. The MPC keeps on telling us that, but a careful scrutiny of its minutes plus the evidence of its activism suggests that it sometimes forgets its own avowed doctrine. Even an unreconstructed Keynesian like myself cannot help but raise an eyebrow at the frequency of interest rate changes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee has seen its task as one of critical interpretation. We say in terms, and I repeat in terms, that we support giving operational independence to the Bank of England for monetary policy and that the policy so far has been a success. That was agreed on a non-party basis. It is hoped that such a view is more widely accepted across the political parties. If it is of any help, I see the new approach as evolutionary and not a radical break from the past.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee also says that such a new departure inevitably implies that all relevant bodies learn from experience and adjust what they do from time to time. It would be a disaster for our country if, in due course, necessary changes were not made to monetary policy institutions and techniques on the grounds that that would imply that the original set-up was imperfect. By
      
      
      the nature of things, human institutions are imperfect and need adjusting from time to time. If it turns out that economic experience leads to the conclusion that the remit needs changing, let it be done without concern for the Treasury's &lt;span class="italic"&gt;amour propre.&lt;/span&gt; Equally, if the mode of operation of the MPC needs to be changed, it must be changed without concern for the feelings of the powers that be. I hasten to add that it is not my view that such changes are needed immediately. I simply make a general point on the rational approach to economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I must now emphasise one or two technical points arising from the report. The committee was concerned about the level of inflation, and it hopes that priority will be given to further examination of that topic. It is especially alive to the difficulties that arise if the inflation index to be aimed at differs from that which is used for index linking in a wide range of contracts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Secondly, the exchange rate remains a difficult problem. It is part of the transmission mechanism and cannot be ignored. However, the economics and econometrics of the exchange rate are fraught with difficulty. We seem to be told that the exchange rate is inevitably unpredictable, but we are also told that there is such a thing as the correct rate for the pound. That too is a subject to which we must return.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Thirdly, we must look more carefully at the real side of the economy and its connection with inflation. On the one hand, the employment consequences of policy are worthy of further scrutiny, especially the question of the restoration of full employment. On the other hand, there is the problem of the underlying or sustainable growth rate of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I was intrigued to read in a newspaper the other day that it may be that the underlying rate of growth of the economy has risen from 2.2 per cent to something nearer 3 per cent. I would dearly like to believe that. However, with my usual pessimism, I must note that we have regularly experienced such false dawns for the past four decades. If, however, the Treasury has some new hard evidence on that, the sooner we hear it the better.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      More generally, important though that is, I do not believe that hitting our inflation objective will automatically lead to full employment and maximum real growth. It may be a necessary precursor, but a precursor to what? Improving the way in which markets work, including labour markets, is a help, but there remains a gap which fiscal policy should fill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not insult your Lordships. I take it for granted that all noble Lords have read every part of the report and every page of the evidence and, therefore, do not require me to summarise it today. Nonetheless, I need to make a couple of remarks on topics that we touched upon but need to examine more deeply in the future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Macro-economic policy varies in its impact on different sectors and regions of the economy. There is the obvious problem of the tradable goods sector hit by a high exchange rate, but not all firms within it suffer in the same way. It also should not be forgotten that the service sector can suffer too, if not directly,
      
      then indirectly because of the adverse effects on its manufacturing customers. I believe that the manufacturing service distinction is a good deal more difficult to make than is sometimes thought by other people. There is the equally serious problem that controlling the boom in the south may make it harder for other regions to experience boom conditions at all. I remain unrepentant in my view that the membership of the MPC is far too biased in a southerly direction.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is also the rather technical question of the nature of policy itself. The Bank intervenes via short term interest rates. I am not at all clear quite what role the money supply in any form plays. It is, therefore, very difficult to compare our policy making with that of the European Central Bank. The Federal Reserve Bank also seems to operate in much wider terms and with regard to a broader range of financial assets. A new inquiry must take account in particular of the United States experience.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      A topic which it is now possible to explore concerns precisely what causes members of the MPC to differ in their votes for or against a particular policy initiative. I have no interest in the analysis &lt;span class="italic"&gt;ad hominem,&lt;/span&gt; only in the general nature of the differences. In particular, we need to know whether differences in voting arise because of different assessments of likely future developments of inflation, different attitudes to risks with regard to deviations from the set target due to unpredictable shocks, or different assessments of the way in which policy works, i.e. the transmission mechanism. Of course, what should not occur at all is that the members should differ because one or other of them wishes to reduce the emphasis placed on the inflation target itself. Any member of the MPC who did that would be breaking the law and infringing an Act of Parliament&amp;#x2014;one of the stranger consequences, for an economist, of this whole matter having a statutory basis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This takes us on to another difficult policy question. Economic theory tells us that, in a dynamic world, policy itself must be dynamic. By that I mean that the correct decision is to be formulated in dynamic terms. In ordinary language, it means that the Monetary Policy Committee must have in mind a time path for interest rates and not merely a level for any one month. As I understand it, it has set its heart against doing much, if anything, more than announcing its monthly decision, as it has done today. This is presumably connected with the effects that saying more may have on the stability of financial markets. I believe that the MPC needs to be very carefully scrutinised in these respects. In particular, it is my belief that, since most financial markets are largely a means and the real economy is the end which determines human wellbeing, the uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rates cannot be ignored.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally, we refer in our report to the need for the Bank to monitor how the MPC works and, more generally, for the Treasury to monitor how macroeconomic policy works overall. We stress that all such monitoring must be placed in the public domain. We would press the authorities most strongly in that regard. In this connection, I was interested to read the
      
      
      Treasury's latest effort, &lt;span class="italic"&gt;The New Monetary Policy Framework.&lt;/span&gt; This document too is worthy of tough, critical scrutiny. However, the chief task confronting your Lordships in the next couple of years is to concentrate on how policy evolves and, reverting to our central philosophy, to advise on how we learn from experience.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I end as I began. Without boasting, I believe that we did a good job and did not let your Lordships down. The job is inevitably incomplete. I believe that we can continue to make a contribution in the future. For the moment, however, I commend this report to your Lordships.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Moved, That this House take note of the report of the Select Committee on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (HL Paper 96).&amp;#x2014;(&lt;span class="italic"&gt;Lord Peston.&lt;/span&gt;)
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  3.55 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04581'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_85'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-maurice-saatchi' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-maurice-saatchi" title="Mr Maurice Saatchi"&gt;Lord Saatchi&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, first, I take this opportunity to congratulate all the members of the Select Committee, especially their chairman, the noble Lord, Lord Peston, on producing an impeccable and timely report. The standard of the report comes as no surprise, considering what an exceedingly distinguished economist Lord Peston is. It would be a shame to let this moment pass without also thanking in particular my noble friends Lord Poole and Lord Weir, whose expertise may be lost to this House as a result of the reforms. How sad that would be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Select Committee system is one of the most respected aspects of our parliamentary procedures. Readers of this report will quickly see why that is so. The noble Lord, Lord Desai said last night that Select Committee reports were indeed educational documents and should be distributed widely to schools and universities. Having read this report, I concur.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am looking forward greatly to this debate, not only because so many of the country's most distinguished economic experts are in your Lordships' House to debate it, but also, as the noble Lord said, because we shall have the pleasure of four maiden speeches.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Bank of England was once likened to,
      &lt;q&gt;a giant iron flywheel set in motion years ago that it would take a determined madman years to stop".&lt;/q&gt;
      The question posed by this report concerns what effect the new MPC system will have on that great wheel.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is widely agreed that, so far, the MPC has done well to sustain inflation at the optimum rate. However, there are very difficult explanations as to why this is so. First, some say that the wheel was made of pure gold when the MPC took over. I refer, of course, to the golden economic legacy of the previous administration.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Proponents of this view point to the fact that between 1993 and 1997 inflation was less than 4 per cent, the longest period of low inflation for 50 years. Roger Bootle, for example, said that the closeness of
      
      the inflation rate to target in the first period of the MPC was,
      &lt;q&gt;a tribute to the previous regime of decision-making&lt;/q&gt;
      by the Conservative government. Others, however, say that the MPC's apparent success is pure luck. This was the version provided by Professor Goodhart in his IEA lecture entitled, "Luck for the MPC".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So is it luck, or is it the miraculous workings of "the new paradigm", in which technological changes are reducing business costs to the point where old-style inflation no longer exists? Or is it because the MPC has been, as the noble Lord, Lord Peston said, "activist" and has, since it was set up, made 14 changes to interest rates&amp;#x2014;15 including today's&amp;#x2014;compared to four times in the same period for the US Federal Reserve and only twice for the ECB and its predecessor central banks?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Behind all these different versions of events lies a nagging question: what is the true legitimacy of the MPC? This question, like all questions of legitimacy, is related to the circumstances of birth. During the debates in your Lordships' House about the reform of this House, the Government consistently relied for the legitimacy of its proposals on its firm manifesto commitment. But what is the status of a Government action for which there is no manifesto commitment? What then? The fact is that the Government suddenly announced their intention to make the Bank of England independent and to form the MPC on 6th May 1997, five days after being elected on 1st May. This haste, this lack of prior consultation, this manifesto silence, must raise concerns about the independence and accountability of the MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Of whom is the MPC independent? To whom is the MPC accountable? Presumably the MPC is intended to be independent of the executive. But it seems from the report that the only person to whom it is accountable is the Chancellor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      How can the MPC be independent of the person to whom it is accountable? Is not that why my right honourable friend the Shadow Chancellor suggested that the legitimacy of the MPC might be improved if it were accountable to Parliament? He takes the view that we currently have the worst of both worlds&amp;#x2014;a halfway house which is neither independent enough of the executive nor accountable enough to Parliament.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Labour Party said that its objective with the MPC was that,
      &lt;q&gt;Decision making on monetary policy is more effective, open, accountable and free from short-term manipulation".&lt;/q&gt;
      But let us consider for a moment the method of selection of MPC members&amp;#x2014;to which I know my noble friend Lady O'Cathain will return in a moment in more detail&amp;#x2014;to see how well it fits with that aim. Currently, the Chancellor has the right to hire seven of the nine members. Does he also have the right to fire them? In a way he does because, as their term of office is for only three years, reappointment requires the Chancellor's support. We should remember that members of the Bundesbank serve for eight years, and of the Federal Reserve for 15 years. As the report says,
      
      
      the members of the MPC are the only members of any central bank that serve a shorter term than the government of the country.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is worth recalling that in his submission on the reform of this House my noble and learned friend Lord Mackay of Clashfern took the view that 15 years was an appropriate period of appointment to overcome the potential for political pressure and ensure true independence. But instead, as the Select Committee said,
      &lt;q&gt;we have no knowledge of the field that was considered before the latest appointment was made, and we even have difficulty elucidating the procedure that was followed".&lt;/q&gt;
      Then there is the related issue of the composition of the MPC mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Peston. At the moment MPC members are renowned economists and experts in their field, but some would like to see a more representative group of people, perhaps including some with experience in manufacturing. The Select Committee raised exactly that concern over what it said was,
      &lt;q&gt;the limited range of experience of the present MPC, both the academics and the Bank's members".&lt;/q&gt;
      But whoever are the members of the MPC, a key point will always be the objectives they are set. In his now famous letter to the Bank Governor, Eddie George, the Chancellor outlined his objectives for the MPC. That letter has now achieved iconic status and is on display in a glass case in the Bank's museum. The &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt; followed later. But is it not slightly baffling that if we look at the contents of the glass case and compare it with the Act, we find that the wording of the two documents is subtly different? That was referred to in the report.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Between 6th May 1997 and 1st June 1998 when the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt; came into force, a change was made. The Chancellor's letter says:
      &lt;q&gt;The monetary policy objective of the Bank of England will be to deliver price stability (as defined by the Government's economic policy) and, without prejudice to this objective, to support the Government's economic policy, including its objectives for growth and employment".&lt;/q&gt;
      But when the objective was then formalised by the passage of the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt;, Section 11 of the Act read as follows:
      &lt;q&gt;In relation to monetary policy, the objectives of the Bank of England shall be&amp;#x2014;
      &lt;ol&gt;
      &lt;li&gt;(a) to maintain price stability, and&lt;/li&gt;
      &lt;li&gt;(b) subject to that, to support the economic policy of Her Majesty's Government, including its objectives for growth and employment".&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ol&gt;&lt;/q&gt;
      So while the letter makes clear that the meaning of the term "price stability" will be defined by the Government, the Act is silent on who will do the defining.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That opens up two levels of potential difficulty. First, over the correct definition of price stability; secondly, over any possible conflict between the Bank's two objectives. As the CBI said in its submission to the Select Committee,
      &lt;q&gt;it is not possible to achieve two targets with one instrument".&lt;/q&gt;
      And as the report states,
      &lt;q&gt;It is a matter of elementary logic that except in rather special cases the number of achievable targets is limited by the number of instruments".&lt;/q&gt;
      
      Perhaps we have seen some of these difficulties at work in the public disagreements among MPC members about, if your Lordships will allow me a corruption of Comrade Lenin, "who controls the research controls the facts, and who controls the facts controls the policy".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      While we are looking at the words in detail, perhaps I can draw your Lordships' attention to another document. I remind your Lordships of the exact words of the Chancellor's letter. It says,
      &lt;q&gt;The &amp;#x2026; policy objective of the Bank will be to deliver price stability &amp;#x2026; and, without prejudice to this objective, to support the Government's economic policy".&lt;/q&gt;
      The document I hold in my hand says,
      &lt;q&gt;The primary objective of the Bank shall be to maintain price stability. Without prejudice to the objective of price stability it shall support the general economic policies of the Community".&lt;/q&gt;
      The words are strikingly similar, but the document in my hand is the Maastricht Treaty dated 7th February 1992, which I seem to remember the Labour Party opposed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My final point concerns the issue of co-ordination between monetary and fiscal policy. The Chancellor knows what he is planning to do from one day to the next, but to what extent is the MPC informed of this? The events of last summer led many to conclude that there is a lack of communication between the Government and the MPC. As paragraph 32 of the minutes of the MPC's meeting of July 1998 stated,
      &lt;q&gt;The case for a reduction in rates became less clear in the light of the Government's recent announcements on fiscal strategy which raised new doubts about the medium term inflation outlook".&lt;/q&gt;
      But how does the MPC know what the fiscal stance of the Government is? Do the members read the Prime Minister's speeches? Do they study the body language of the Treasury official who sits in on their meetings? If they read the Prime Minister's speeches, they would be reassured that the Government have no plans to increase tax at all. Yet, as we know, the Government are increasing tax. The tax burden is rising from 35.4 per cent to 37.6 per cent during the lifetime of this Parliament. According to the OECD today, taxes are rising faster here than anywhere else in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We all know that the Government's policy is to take full advantage of the present complicated tax structure and the astonishing plethora of tax credits, allowances, exemptions, reliefs, deductions, disregards and indexations, alteration of which allows such scope for hidden tax increases, which the Shadow Chancellor famously dubbed "stealth taxes". Is that not how the Government achieved the feat of increasing tax without ever announcing a tax increase?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As the minutes of the MPC's meeting in July last year clearly stated,
      &lt;q&gt;The case for a reduction in rates became less clear in the light of the Government's recent announcements on fiscal strategy, which raised new doubts about the medium term inflation outlook".&lt;/q&gt;
      It was precisely that practice of the Government which led the Treasury Select Committee in another place to ask the Government to display greater transparency in
      
      
      their tax policies. That was why the Director General of the CBI described,
      &lt;q&gt;the corporation tax changes which were very carefully [portrayed] as a reduction in tax rates but were actually a tax increase, exploiting the fact that the number of people in the world who understood dividend tax credits is remarkably few, which allows the Chancellor to increase taxes whilst appearing to cut them".&lt;/q&gt;
      The concern is that the Government have woven such a tangled web in their tax policies that the MPC itself might get caught up in it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee probably have a more direct effect on people's lives than those of any other body in the country. They affect everyone with a home loan, everyone with a credit card, every saver and every business in Britain. This superb report raises some fundamental issues, a few of which I touched on today, and I look forward greatly to noble Lords' contributions to this crucial debate.
    &lt;/p&gt;
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  4.7 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04583'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_87'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-derek-ezra' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-derek-ezra" title="Mr Derek Ezra"&gt;Lord Ezra&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I am pleased to have participated in the work of the Select Committee under the able chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Peston, who so effectively introduced our debate on the report, and I listened with great interest to the searching questions asked by the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The role of the Bank of England in securing price stability has been a matter of interest to me personally for many years. Over the past decade I have asked a number of Questions on the subject. In particular, in an Unstarred Question on 16th December 1992 at col. 626 of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Hansard,&lt;/span&gt; I asked Her Majesty's Government whether they considered,
      &lt;q&gt;that additional responsibility should be given to the Bank of England to assist in securing long-term price stability".&lt;/q&gt;
      I proposed then that a Select Committee should be set up to analyse past trends on prices and inflation, to review what was being done in other countries to contain inflation and to make recommendations. I regret to say that this was turned down by the then government, who took the view that, "We have the right policies and we have no plans to abandon our traditions".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I was therefore very pleased when the present Government decided shortly after the general election in May 1997 that the Bank of England should be given operational responsibility to deliver price stability, as defined by the Government's economic policy. This was subsequently formalised in the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1998"&gt;Bank of England Act 1998&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that that period of over two years which has elapsed since then has justified the Government in giving the Bank operational independence in this matter. There is widespread agreement, endorsed by the Select Committee, that the Monetary Policy Committee has generally performed its task successfully. In recent weeks there has been some criticism, as referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Peston, that the committee has, perhaps, changed interest rates too frequently. It has done so more than a dozen times&amp;#x2014;indeed, well over a dozen times after
      
      today's increase&amp;#x2014;since it was established. In the same period, the Federal Reserve in the United States only made four changes, and the Bundesbank, followed by the European Central Bank, only made three changes. It may be that in the future the MPC will make less frequent changes in interest rates. However, having said that, there is no doubt that what it has done has kept inflation very much in line with the Government's policy of 2.5 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What is remarkable about the operations of the MPC is the unique degree of transparency which is practised. The publication of the minutes of meetings a fortnight after they are held is an exceptional achievement. Like many noble Lords, I have served on the boards of various companies. I cannot recall a single case where we have received the internal minutes within a fortnight, let alone had them published within a fortnight. So I think that this is exceptional. The transparency adopted by the MPC exceeds that practised by the ECB and the Federal Reserve.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that the operations of the MPC so far, particularly the transparent way in which they are undertaken, has led to perhaps its biggest achievement, which is to reduce inflationary expectations. One of the major factors leading to the big increases in inflation in recent years was the expectation on the part of enterprises, trade unions and the general public that inflation would continue to rise at a high level. I personally suffered from this while I was chairman of the National Coal Board. We had to negotiate with the unions and, whatever we said, they denied it, and replied, "Inflation is going up at this rate and we have got to have at least that, plus". That was the framework within which we operated at the time. However, the situation is quite changed. Inflationary expectations are now very much in line with the Government's low inflation objective. This is undoubtedly something quite exceptional in our recent economic history.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Another aspect which impressed me during the course of the Select Committee's inquiry was the detailed analysis of economic and financial developments conducted by the MPC, both at national and regional level. In my opinion, this has meant that increasingly over the period the decisions the committee reached on the level of interest rates have been informed by a wide-ranging analysis of trends throughout the country, while also taking into account international developments.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In my view, the general conclusion is that the MPC represents a success story. However, we must bear in mind that this is being done at a time when low inflation has been achieved throughout the developed world. What is also uncertain is how this system would operate in the light of major external supply shocks. There was much discussion in the Select Committee, as the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and my other colleagues will recall, about this; for example, in paragraphs 1.43 and 6.12. I believe that the conclusion reached was that we could probably cope better with external shocks with the present system in operation than without it. That may be so. When we interviewed the governor of the Banque de France I specifically asked him if he
      
      
      thought we were now better equipped to deal with shocks, such as the oil crisis in the 1970s. He said that he thought,
      &lt;q&gt;we would certainly have the right response".&lt;/q&gt;
      That is how he felt about the matter. But, of course, we do not know. Time will tell&amp;#x2014;if and when we have the next major supply shock.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Another issue which took up much of our time was the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy. By its very nature, the fixing of interest rates has to be done on a national basis and cannot take account of regional variations. So the question was: could this be corrected by fiscal policy? Generally speaking, the Government's approach to fiscal policy is that it should set a long-term framework and, therefore, specific short-term interventions would be minimised. None the less, there could clearly be a need for such interventions when major sectoral or regional imbalances occur.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We had much discussion about the composition of the MPC and the respective roles of the external and internal members; indeed, both the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, referred to this. I was a little surprised to learn that the external Members were generally full time on the job, while the internal members, who had their Bank of England responsibility in addition, were therefore part time. This is a complete reversal of the position on the normal board of a company. As the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, said, in recent days there is reported to have been lively discussion within the MPC about the facilities which should be made available to the external members. It would be of interest if the Minister, when responding, could let us know where matters stand in that regard. We raised the question of the selection of external members and thought that it ought to be more open than it is. No doubt this also will be mentioned by the Minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally, there was the question of the relationship with the ECB and the euro. During our visit to Frankfurt, when we spoke to the President of the ECB and his colleagues, it appeared that the procedures which they pursued were similar in many respects to those of the MPC. However, as I mentioned earlier, the degree of transparency was noticeably less, which the President of the ECB explained by stating that he did not consider it desirable that the position taken up by members at any one time should be revealed as this could inhibit subsequent changes of position. I do not believe that our experience has shown that that is necessarily so.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The issue of how, through monetary policy, we should prepare for eventual membership of the euro zone and how we might work towards a greater convergence was not pursued in the time available to the Select Committee. I believe that this could well form the subject of a future inquiry.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04584'&gt;
  
  4.18 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04585'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_89'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-richard-denison' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-richard-denison" title="Mr Richard Denison"&gt;Lord Londesborough&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for introducing this report to the House. I am especially grateful for this opportunity to be one of the last ever hereditary Peers to make a maiden speech, just days after taking my seat&amp;#x2014;or, to put it another way, just days before losing my seat. I believe that, by tradition, one is granted a final wish before facing the firing squad. Mine is to speak on monetary policy before the trigger is pulled. It is actually a subject with which I am well acquainted, as I have spent the past 15 years building a publishing business where exports account for 90 per cent of sales.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I know that I speak for much of business when I say that our current monetary policy is severely restricting this country's ability to compete in the market-place both at home and overseas. We are losing our competitive edge just at the time when global competition is intensifying.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As we know, interest rates, which have gone up again today, remain much higher than in Europe and in America and show little sign of convergence. How much longer can UK business be expected to shoulder steeper borrowing costs than our competitors? But far worse, particularly for exporters, high interest rates have contributed to three years of increasing strength in sterling, both against the deutschmark and latterly the euro and, of course, the US dollar. For business sectors operating on margins of 10 per cent, an overpriced pound has virtually wiped out profits, forcing some to quit foreign markets altogether.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Where we compete against the Asians, the Latin Americans, the east Europeans, sterling has appreciated by as much as 50 per cent. Next time your Lordships pop into Marks and Spencer to purchase your wool-rich socks, might I suggest that you check the label first? I fear that it is more likely to state "Made in Slovakia" than "Made in Britain". Indeed we heard this week that M&amp;S is now "disengaging" from a supply relationship with Daks Simpsons it can no longer afford and outsourcing offshore instead. The net result, I believe, is as many as 800 lost jobs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I know that the MPC shares employers' concerns over how long one can finance an average wage rise of 5 per cent per annum when factory gate prices are falling and retail prices have barely risen by l per cent. With low unemployment, employers are being forced to offer higher wages to recruit effectively, adding further upward pressure on wages. You can only stretch company finances so far. If your Lordships believe that you are listening to the whinges of yet another businessman crying wolf, you need only to glance at our balance of payments figures to see how these micro-economic difficulties are impacting on the economy at large.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The trade deficit in goods for the first half of this year alone stands at an appalling &amp;#x00A3;14 billion. Our exports of goods were 10 per cent. down on the first half of 1997, in spite of two years of relative economic growth. There has been a fragile recovery in exports in the past couple of months, but I know that I am not alone in believing that this is only a temporary
      
      
      phenomenon. With our new found appetite for cheaper imports, even the surplus in services is showing signs of peaking. The result is that our current account balance has dived into the red and we have seen &amp;#x00A3;10 billion vanish from our foreign reserves over the past two years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am one of a small but, I believe, growing minority who believes that the forces of disinflation are gathering force. Many retailers can grow only by cutting prices in the current climate. With the advent of the Internet and electronic commerce, which brings with it greater price transparency, British goods and services are in danger of losing further market share. It takes only a couple of clicks on the Internet to make an instant price comparison, and in the case of Britain generally an unfavourable one.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Controlling inflation must always remain a priority, but what about the Treasury's key stated aim of "promoting enterprise"? Tax breaks and small business incentives are all very well but they do not begin to address the problem of a very uneven playing field. My question to the Minister is the following: could he inform this House how the Government intend to respond to this threat posed by greater international competition? Are exporters simply expected to adapt through miraculous productivity advances, or can we expect a more balanced macroeconomic environment?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I conclude by urging the MPC to take much greater account of the huge interest and exchange rate burdens currently borne by business and industry. If monetary policy does not address these factors, we shall continue to price ourselves out of the market and ultimately damage growth, investment and jobs. The global economy, I suggest, is changing and I respectfully suggest that inflation is no longer to be regarded as Public Enemy No. 1. I thank your Lordships for your indulgence.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04586'&gt;
  
  4.24 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04587'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_91'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-joel-barnett' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-joel-barnett" title="Mr Joel Barnett"&gt;Lord Barnett&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I am delighted to have the opportunity to congratulate the noble Lord on an excellent maiden speech. In saying that I know that I speak for many noble Lords in the House. It is good to hear from the coal-face, as it were, what is really happening. There is one way to get interest rates down fairly quickly, but I know that the Front Bench opposite would not necessarily agree with that.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We are told that this is the noble Lord's first and last speech. Therefore I cannot say, as we usually do on these occasions, that we look forward to seeing the noble Lord often in the future. However, we can thank him sincerely for an excellent contribution to our debate. We have heard that he runs what I understand is a small business. He will understand why I very much believe that small is beautiful, both in business and elsewhere! We wish the noble Lord success in his business. That will not just be good for him but also for the country.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report was clearly summarised by my noble friend Lord Peston, our excellent chairman, who referred to page 53 of the report which contains the
      
      summary of recommendations. I mention the page number just in case some readers have not yet got there. It is first my duty, I believe, to congratulate and support my noble friend Lord Peston in pressing that this Select Committee relating to the control and accountability of the Monetary Policy Committee should be a permanent committee of your Lordships' House. I hope that that proposal will be supported on all sides of the House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I say with respect to the Treasury Committee in another place that it is, like the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, much more party political and therefore less objective. I was sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, could not help making party political points. As the noble Lord is new to the job I hope that I may tell him that making party political speeches on every occasion&amp;#x2014;even on non-party political occasions&amp;#x2014;does not help the party he supports. I repeat that my noble friend Lord Peston called for a permanent committee. I agree with that because as much as I believe that the chairman of the Treasury Committee in another place, Giles Radice, is an excellent chairman&amp;#x2014;almost, if not quite, as good as ours&amp;#x2014;he finds it difficult to be objective. If one reads the reports of that committee, one finds that on every occasion vote after vote after vote is taken before a report is agreed. On the other hand, our reports are discussed in depth and in detail and are always agreed unanimously and are therefore more commonsensical&amp;#x2014;if I may put it that way&amp;#x2014;and thus more objective. I strongly hope that our Select Committee will operate on a more permanent basis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I turn to the report itself. We all know the central objective; namely, the objective given to the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain, if it can, a 2.5 per cent level of inflation. I believe that there is some lack of clarity about what consideration the Monetary Policy Committee should give to the Government's economic policy. The Monetary Policy Committee of course considers every aspect of economic policy and every bit of data that is available, although I gather that four independent members of that committee do not receive quite as good data as the executive members. However, that is another matter that we can no doubt deal with later.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Of course one accepts the constant reiteration by both the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England that price stability is necessary for growth and employment to succeed and be sustained. However, there is confusion over the language used constantly and in many different areas about the price stability target and how far that supersedes the Government's own economic policy. I give a few examples. My noble friend Lord Peston referred to Section 11 of the Act and said that it was meaningless. He may be right. The words in that section were mentioned also by the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi. I refer to the words, "subject to that"; that is to say, subject to the price inflation target, the Monetary Policy Committee should consider the Government's own economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In paragraph 1.38 of our report we refer to the background notes of the Treasury in 1997. They state that the MPC should consider without prejudice the
      
      
      objective of price stability and that it should support economic policy. In paragraph 1.40 we quote the Governor of the Bank of England. He said that of course it was "continuously addressing" the problem of price stability and inflation. He went on to say that "through that" it supported growth and demand. The Governor told us that he prefers that particular formulation rather than the one in the Bill.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We are told in the new monetary policy framework document, which was issued recently, that
      &lt;q&gt;price stability is not an end in itself".&lt;/q&gt;
      That is fairly obvious. But we get many obvious statements in government documents, so we should not be too surprised about that. I notice that it even makes my noble friend who is to reply smile.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It may be meaningless to my noble friend Lord Peston, but the Bill must surely be the main legal instrument of the Monetary Policy Committee. Or is it? I am bound to ask the Minister that question. The Government refused to accept an amendment moved in Committee by myself and my noble friend Lord Peston which sought to delete the words "subject to that". I notice that the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, has not yet looked at this matter. The amendment was not supported too strongly by the Opposition Front Bench at the time. I am not now asking the Government to clarify the situation in a new Bill&amp;#x2014;that would be asking far too much in the busy Session to which we can look forward&amp;#x2014;but I do ask them to take note of Section 12 of the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt;. It states:
      &lt;q&gt;The Treasury may by notice in writing",&lt;/q&gt;
      do a variety of things. I know the Minister is very persuasive. Perhaps he could persuade the Chancellor to consider writing a letter to clarify the situation in relation to price stability and the Government's economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The heart of the Bill concerns the transfer of monetary policy from the Chancellor to the Bank. In practice, while there is no longer a "Ken and Eddie Show", there is a "Gordon and Eddie Show"&amp;#x2014;but, as we know, that is held in private on a fairly regular basis. I am sure that they discuss all the various aspects of fiscal and monetary policy&amp;#x2014;including, almost certainly, the question of the exchange rate, to which the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, referred.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I may say a brief word about that. No one&amp;#x2014;not even a body as distinguished as the Monetary Policy Committee or our distinguished committee&amp;#x2014;could decide the appropriate rate. What is the right rate? I have not heard anyone&amp;#x2014;especially these days&amp;#x2014;say what is precisely the right rate to help the businesses referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, and others.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Given what we say in paragraph 7.22 of our report, and given that we might join EMU in the next few years, we shall have to consider what should be the right rate. That is obvious. If the Government were to say that it is not a matter of "if" we join the single
      
      currency but a matter of "when"&amp;#x2014;I mention that for the benefit of my noble friend Lord Bruce of Donington&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04588'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_92'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Lord Bruce of Donington&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      Hear! Hear!
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04589'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_93'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-joel-barnett' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-joel-barnett" title="Mr Joel Barnett"&gt;Lord Barnett&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      &amp;#x2014;I believe we would see very quickly an impact on the exchange rate. We would start to see the lower interest rates and lower exchange rate referred to by the noble Lord. I hasten to add that that is not the view of the committee; that is my personal view.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally, I turn to the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee on interest rates. We know that it increased them again by a quarter of 1 per cent today. Our chairman said that we do not second-guess the decisions being taken; however, we do consider how and why those decisions are taken. Have the decisions been right so far? Considerable comment has been made about that question&amp;#x2014;much of it contradictory.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I refer to an article in the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times,&lt;/span&gt; which appeared as recently as 29th October. It referred to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It was not clear in the leader whether it was referring to the views of the national institute or its own views. Let us take it that it was either. The leader started by saying that maybe the lowering and raising of rates was all a waste of time. Given that we are told that it takes two years for changes in interest rates to have an impact, it would seem that we should thank the former Chancellor, Ken Clarke, for some of the inflation levels we have today. I would hasten to do that.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      But then we are told in the same leader that the Monetary Policy Committee has presided over the smoothest recovery since the 1960s. It goes on to say that perhaps it was luck as much as good management. Maybe it was luck; few people know how it has happened. However, we are then told at the end of the leader that the steep rise in rates was needed in 1997. I am sure members of the Monetary Policy Committee will be glad to know that they were not totally wasting their time on reducing or increasing interest rates. Were the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee right? We have heard that the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times&lt;/span&gt; or the national institute&amp;#x2014;or both&amp;#x2014;consider that the recovery has been smooth and that inflation has been around the target set by the Chancellor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Eddie George was quoted in &lt;span class="italic"&gt;The Times&lt;/span&gt; "City Diary" as saying&amp;#x2014;and it is worth repeating what he is supposed to have said:
      &lt;q&gt;I sometimes feel that the only people who really don't know what should happen to interest rates are the members of the Monetary Policy Committee".&lt;/q&gt;
      The writer of that diary went on to say that he thought Eddie George was joking. I am not sure; perhaps he was not joking. It may be true that they do not know what they are doing. Certainly if one reads any set of minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee, one sees words such as "difficult to know what to do", "it is puzzling", "it is a puzzle". So one cannot help feeling that the decisions might have been made by sticking a finger in the air. Certainly the background to the way
      
      
      in which decisions are made is far from clear. Our committee should look to see whether there is a better way.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Again reading the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times&lt;/span&gt; argument about the lack of research facilities for the four independent members, we should examine the way in which the members are chosen&amp;#x2014;not only the independent members but also the executive members. Are they chosen on a basis of hawks and doves and balance? Is that the way in which they are chosen? It would be interesting to know. I would like very much to know. Whatever happens, I certainly agree that the Chancellor should not intervene in any argument about facilities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that the argument put by the Deputy Governor&amp;#x2014; that it is all part of the mandate that the independent members do not get the additional services they need&amp;#x2014;will not prevail. The matter is far too important for that. I hope that we will not be told by the Minister that the reason for them not getting the extra facilities is lack of resources. That would be quite disgraceful; the issue is so important. If it is a part of the mandate&amp;#x2014;as we have been told it is&amp;#x2014;I hope that that mandate will be changed. That cannot require legislation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I leave it at that. I hope that Members of your Lordships' House will find the report as good as we believe it to be and well worth considering.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04590'&gt;
  
  4.39 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04591'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_95'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-william-weir' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-william-weir" title="Mr William Weir"&gt;Viscount Weir&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, perhaps I may add my congratulations to the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, on a truly excellent and most interesting maiden speech. I should also like to say what a pleasure it was to serve on the committee, not least because of the admirable way in which the noble Lord, Lord Peston, chaired our proceedings.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The work of the committee was of the greatest interest to me personally, in particular because for 12 years I served as a director of the Bank of England. There is a great difference between the way monetary matters are dealt with today and how they were managed during my time at the Bank. I can clearly recall one of the three splendid Governors under whom I served gloomily remarking, "I am sorry to say that we are having some difficulty with the other end of town". Given the trying economic circumstances prevailing at the time, I more than suspect that the Governor's urbane remark was a euphemism to disguise a difference of opinion of heroic proportions. However, I believe that the new arrangement, and the independence given to the Bank to carry it out, is a real improvement on the old system. It is a great pity, and perhaps a criticism of previous administrations, that something of that kind was not introduced very much earlier.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, one is also bound to remark how often fashions can change in economic management and how the key issue of the day never seems to be the same for very long. Indeed, former Chancellors are now Members of this House, some of whom in their day awaited the balance of payments figures with dread.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      Over some, the exchange rate continually brooded like a malign bird of prey about to strike, while others focused on a speedometer marked with not totally accurate money supply figures as they tried to control the vehicle of our nation's economy. Let us hope that this time we have finally got it right and in particular let us hope that the mechanism that has been put in place will prove sufficiently robust to withstand the external shocks which one day will inevitably test it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the time available it will not be possible to touch on many aspects of the report. I shall confine myself to one or two points. First, the well-aired problem that may be called the cobbler's or the shoemaker's dilemma; that is, the almost insoluble difficulty of finding one shoe to fit every size of foot. Even within an individual country, a single monetary policy may be excellent for one part of the economy but is almost certain to be difficult and unsatisfactory for other parts. For example, although there is debate and uncertainty among economists as to the precise relationship between interest rates, monetary policy and the exchange rate of a currency, it is certain that there is a link. Thus, British industry, and in particular exporters, argue that our interest rates today are higher than they should be simply because they make sterling disproportionately strong and they therefore cause considerable difficulty, not only for our manufacturing industry but also for agriculture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Regardless of whether interest rates alone are the cause, the committee heard striking evidence from witnesses from, for example, British Steel that the current exchange rate was simply making the UK an unsuitable place for that kind of company, with a huge export position, to carry on manufacturing, even when, by the relative standards of the industry such as man hours and energy consumption per tonne, British Steel is extremely efficient in world-class terms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Surely that is a worrying outcome when so important an industry as steel can barely export anything at all at a profit, as has been the case for prolonged periods in recent times, and when for external reasons over which the industry has absolutely no control, its massive and first-class capital investment produces hardly any economic return at all. The same considerations apply to other sectors of manufacturing industry in the UK.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, at the same time there is no one in the service, financial or retail sectors who suggests that the exchange rate is at all troublesome. Sympathetic as any of us may be to the difficulties that monetary policy via the exchange rate may cause for basic industries like steel, I have almost as much sympathy for the other side of the question. A proposition that unfortunately all too frequently has been demonstrated in the past is that you do not generate real growth in national wealth by devaluation, whether it occurs by deliberate action or through other circumstances. If our goal is to have a high real wage, high added-value economy&amp;#x2014;and surely that should be a national aim&amp;#x2014;that cannot be built on the back of a depreciating currency.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In a sense, the existence of an exchange rate that is awkwardly strong challenges industry to change its course and move towards the more sophisticated
      
      
      products that define a high added-value economy, rather than continuing to produce the kind of commodity goods that sell strictly on price rather than value and are typical and more suitable for low-wage, developing economies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      To say this may not be at all helpful to those most affected, but my real sympathy for industries which complain about the exchange rate&amp;#x2014;I have to admit that I myself have done so often in the past&amp;#x2014;and which complain about interest rates and a monetary policy that is too tight for comfort has to be tempered by those other considerations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Clearly, for an individual state like the UK it is difficult to set a single monetary policy to suit everyone, even when ironically the goal of that monetary policy is simply to achieve price stability and a proper and low rate of inflation, which is an objective beneficial to, and supported by, everyone in the industrial sector.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What of course follows from the difficulties posed by a single monetary policy for all the different groups in our little island is how much more difficult that same situation must be for a common monetary policy within Europe. For example, today, both in terms of growth and inflation rates, there are very considerable differences between Germany and Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When such differences widen to an unacceptable degree, then obviously one way in which countries can compensate for that situation is by their national flexibility in fiscal policy. But here is the rub, because quite central to the vision of some important European politicians today is fiscal convergence. If fiscal convergence is achieved to a real degree in Europe, then surely much of that flexibility will be removed and a common monetary policy will become distinctly more difficult to operate without causing considerable problems, many of which will be political in their consequences. I suggest that our Government bear that particular dilemma very much in mind.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Secondly, there appears to be&amp;#x2014;happily, I would add&amp;#x2014;absolute agreement that fiscal and monetary policy must march in step and complement each other. That is a commendable idea and it is evident that the Chancellor has rightly emphasised his commitment to that course.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that noble Lords will not feel that I am being awkward or political or doubtful of the Chancellor's sincerity when I say that, from the point of view of industry, the evidence that that desirable partnership is actually working is a little thin. Surely if the exchange rate is causing difficulties for our manufacturers and if monetary policy is a strong factor driving the exchange rate, then it could reasonably be expected that fiscal policy and other policies that have economic and cost consequences for industry would be so designed as to have some compensating effect. But high fuel taxes, proposed energy taxes, expensive changes in pension costs, working time directives and the like are all pulling in precisely the wrong direction. As for the simile of marching in step&amp;#x2014;I was in the Royal Navy so I never
      
      had to march much and am no expert&amp;#x2014;is perhaps the right foot of monetary policy not coming down simultaneously with the left foot of fiscal policy? To the listener, that sounds like being in step, but it is not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As for the current controversy, which is not very helpful to public confidence, regarding the resources made available to the independent members of the Monetary Policy Committee, someone picturesquely remarked to me the other day that it was as if some of the priests in an ancient heathen temple complained that after the animals were sacrificed they could not foretell the future because the other priests would not let them borrow the magnifying glass to have a proper squint at the entrails. I think that a matter like this should have been settled within the Bank of England and that we should not make too much of it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Finally&amp;#x2014;here I confess to being just a little political&amp;#x2014;one thing that it seemed to me was fairly clearly demonstrated to your Lordships' committee was that changes in monetary policy take a couple of years or so to work through in full. Perhaps, therefore, while we can most certainly congratulate the Chancellor on giving independence to the Bank in the way he has done, he in turn might deploy his undoubted and well-known generosity of spirit by thanking his predecessors for bequeathing him for much of his time in office so balmy an economic climate in which to bask.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04592'&gt;
  
  4.51 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-lipsey' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-lipsey" title="Mr David Lipsey"&gt;Lord Lipsey&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, one cannot enter your Lordships' House for the first time without being struck by the warmth of the welcome one receives not only from one's own side but from all sides of the House and indeed from the staff. That came as a surprise to me despite the fact that I have worked in the Houses of Parliament for a very long time. It was 1972 when I first started at the other end, working for the late Anthony Crosland MP as his political adviser. I finished only quite recently when I signed off as political editor of the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Economist.&lt;/span&gt; In my time I have been up in the Galleries and for many arduous hours as a political journalist down in the Bars pursuing my trade. But I have never been in the Chamber before.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In recent years I have been plagued by something of a nightmare. It is that I am chatting away to so many people that I have known in one capacity or another down the years only for one of the larger attendants to materialise behind me, place his hand on my shoulder and march me off to some unnamed fate. So if in the course of my remarks today I cast the odd nervous glance over my shoulder, it is not that I fear that I am being stabbed in the back; it is that which I am remembering.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When the committee so ably chaired by my noble friend Lord Peston was first mooted, it is fair to say that the Treasury viewed it with a certain nervousness. The Treasury feared that it would double-guess the Monetary Policy Committee, which it was admirably well qualified to do. At least three of its members&amp;#x2014;my noble friend Lord Barnett and the noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Roll&amp;#x2014;had conducted monetary
      
      
      policy and they knew a thing or two about it. The Treasury was nervous about double-guessing. But the report before your Lordships' House today admirably dispels all those fears as the Treasury would certainly admit. It really is a most distinguished and lucid piece of economic analysis which will contribute to the debate for many years to come.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I had at first thought to devote my remarks to the subject matter of Chapter 3 and of the learned Appendix 3, which I am sure all your Lordships have mastered, on the relative merits of the retail prices index being measured by the arithmetic mean and by the geometric mean. Indeed, I thought to inject a suggestion of my own&amp;#x2014;that we should instead use the harmonic mean. However, my noble friend Lord Peston pointed out to me that that was the same as the geometric mean, and so I thought better of it. Instead I shall confine myself to two more general remarks.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The first is perhaps illustrated by the story, with which I am sure your Lordships are familiar, of the man who jumped off the top floor of the National Westminster Bank Tower. I believe his name was Wanless. As he passed the 12th floor at a rate of knots, he was heard to mutter, "Not very much seems to have happened yet". Something of that analogy applies to the work of the Monetary Policy Committee. I do not mean that its work has been easy&amp;#x2014;far from it. I did not envy the decision it had to make this morning when the indicators from asset prices, particularly in the south-east, seemed to require an increase in the rate of interest, whereas other indicators&amp;#x2014;perhaps the exchange rate and certainly the employment figures for the north of England&amp;#x2014;might indicate leaving the rate where it was or even cutting it. I do not say that the decision was easy. But that is as nothing compared with what the MPC will face when, as will inevitably happen&amp;#x2014;perhaps I may be permitted a bit of Balls here&amp;#x2014;the economy faces an exogenous shock.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The best example of that in recent years was the oil price hike of the early 1970s when the need to combat inflation suggested that the interest rate should be going up while the need to combat unemployment suggested that the rate should be going down. The authorities were completely flummoxed by that; the government, who I then advised, made a complete hash of it; and it took us some years to dig our way out of the hole and leave the golden legacy we left in 1979. We will only truly see the mettle of the new arrangements when such a shock comes along and the really tough decisions have to be made by the Monetary Policy Committee. So far, so good, but the real test is yet to come.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My second point concerns the euro. I am aware of the convention that a maiden speaker must say nothing controversial. In my case, on the subject of the euro, that is very easy because it is a subject on which I am a convinced "Don't know". What should be non-controversial is that it is inevitable that the euro will have an impact on the conduct of our domestic monetary policy. We will not be able clearly to separate the two. It is noticeable that the Treasury, when it produces its regular monthly monetary bulletins, now calls them euro zone. Certainly, the
      
      main focus of the material in them is on monetary conditions in all the European countries and not just those in our own.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It was a hint of things to come that the two committees should both meet today. They were daring to take their decisions before reading the deliberations of your Lordships' House. But the two committees met today and reached their decisions&amp;#x2014;both rates going up at the same time. That could be a harbinger of what is to come. I believe that developments in the euro suggest that that may happen rather more rapidly than we have hitherto thought. Perhaps I may give some examples. Among the "ins", the talk now is of cutting the period of dual running of national and euro currencies. Among the "nearly ins", Greece has now wrestled its budget deficit down below the 2 per cent of GDP that seems to make entry possible. It will be knocking at the door very soon. Norway is an "out", and a eurosceptical "out", but now it seems that both the Government of Norway and public opinion in Norway are moving increasingly in favour of entry. We see simultaneously a broadening and a deepening of the euro and its strength. Economists are always wary of trends&amp;#x2014;which have a nasty way of reversing themselves just when one thinks they are most clearly established. But the present tendency seems to be in that direction. That will have a tremendous impact on this country in terms of the conduct of monetary policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If we look ahead, say, five years, it is a moot point as to whether the Governor of the Bank of England would have a greater impact on monetary conditions here if he remained &lt;span class="italic"&gt;primus inter pares&lt;/span&gt; on the Monetary Policy Committee or if he were to become just one member among others on the monetary policy authorities in Europe. I do not know which way matters will go, and I do not say that that will happen. It is a moot point as to which position would give him the greater power over monetary policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Enough of gazing at the crystal ball. I feel comforted and am glad at the prospect of the committee of the noble Lord, Lord Peston&amp;#x2014;even though he is prepared to give up the chair; and I am sure that that will be resisted strongly in the light of his first report&amp;#x2014;being re-formed for years to come to provide us with the kind of excellent report that is before the House today.
    &lt;/p&gt;
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  5 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-detta-ocathain' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-detta-ocathain" title="Ms Detta O'Cathain"&gt;Baroness O'Cathain&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a singular honour to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, on a memorable, stimulating maiden speech. It was most impressive, made as it was without a single note and without hesitation or deviation. Although the noble Lord has only recently joined us, I am sure I am not alone in feeling that I have known him for a very long time through his writing as a serious journalist. He is a serious, challenging and informative journalist, and we have heard a serious, challenging and informative speech. On behalf of the whole House perhaps I may say that we welcome him and look forward to regular serious, challenging and informative contributions from him in the future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      Like other noble Lords, I want to pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for his chairmanship of the Select Committee. It was a most interesting experience; indeed, it was wonderful to be a member. I hope, as other noble Lords have said, that the Select Committee will continue.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In my contribution, I intend to concentrate on Chapter 7 of the report; namely, the issue of the selection of members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Although the recommendations made in the report concentrate on the appointment of independent members, I want to refer to the overall composition of the Monetary Policy Committee. The noble Lord, Lord Barnett, touched on the subject, but I want to deal with it in greater depth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Section 13 of the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1998"&gt;Bank of England Act 1998&lt;/a&gt; stipulates that the membership of the Monetary Policy Committee is to consist of the Governor of the Bank of England; his two deputy governors&amp;#x2014;two members appointed by the Governor, both having executive responsibility within the Bank of England, one for monetary policy analysis and the other for monetary policy operations; plus four members appointed by the Chancellor&amp;#x2014;the "independent" members.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      To offer a personal observation&amp;#x2014;one which, I confess, I did not make during our deliberations&amp;#x2014;I believe that, whereas the current membership of the Monetary Policy Committee works well (at least, so I thought until I read the comments in the press at the weekend), it could lead to problems.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When I put my name down for this debate, I did not realise how topical the issue of the structure of the MPC would be when it took place. I am somewhat bemused to see that there appear to be some tensions between the independent members and the members who have dual responsibility; namely, as members of the Monetary Policy Committee and also as full-time employees/executives of the Bank of England. I suppose with hindsight that is not surprising.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I find it "not surprising" because, based on my experience of working at board level in industry and commerce over many years, I know that being an executive or non-executive director of a company is not identical to being a member of the MPC; but the duties, responsibilities and issues addressed at board level do bear some similarity to those addressed by the Monetary Policy Committee each month.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The strategy to achieve the objectives of the body are constantly uppermost in the minds of the directors: the analysis of the external circumstances which have impinged, and are likely to impinge, on the strategy is discussed; documents from the company's economist, finance directorate and operations directorate to support the in-house view are produced and deliberated upon&amp;#x2014;not unlike what we were told in evidence is the general &lt;span class="italic"&gt;modus operandi&lt;/span&gt; of Monetary Policy Committee meetings. So far so good, but in my experience a board works best when the non-executive directors have a greater number of members on the board than the executive directors.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      That view is borne out by experience in the US, where all major corporations have a large majority of non-executive directors as members of the board. That may seem an irrelevant point, but I think not. Faced with a united phalanx of five "insiders", the four "outsiders" (that is, the independent members) could sometimes feel outnumbered, or even&amp;#x2014;dare I say?&amp;#x2014;intimidated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am sure that that is not necessarily the situation that pertains in the present Monetary Policy Committee. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that membership of all institutions (including, sadly, this House) can and does change fundamentally from time to time. Our report looked not only at the operation of the Monetary Policy Committee since its inception, but made specific recommendations in regard to its future operation. Perhaps that is an issue that should be addressed in the future. As a "kite flyer", should the Monetary Policy Committee have three members of the Bank and five independent members?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That leads me neatly to the specific issue that I want to address; namely, the selection of the independent members. Just to refresh the memories of all noble Lords who, I know, have spent the long, hot summer reading the report, perhaps I may reiterate the relevant recommendations and make some further comments on them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      First, our report states at paragraph 7.13 that,
      &lt;q&gt;The existence of a vacancy should be known. People should be encouraged to apply on their own behalf, or should be able to write in recommendation [of] a candidate whom they fear the Treasury may have missed".&lt;/q&gt;
      It goes on to state that,
      &lt;q&gt;We are convinced that the Treasury can devise a more open method, enabling good candidates to put their names forward for consideration, and knowledgeable people to make suggestions".&lt;/q&gt;
      Secrecy in making any appointment is bound to lead to accusations of "cronyism". Whether one likes it or not&amp;#x2014;and I personally loathe it&amp;#x2014;the press and other media seem to have a reflex action which activates the baying of that word any time a press notice giving information about another appointment to a review body, a health authority or any other quango is issued. As an aside, I heard on the radio just a few days ago that press notices are now issued by this Government at the rate of one every nine minutes. Fanned by the media, cynicism abounds. I do not believe that cronyism was involved in any of the appointments to the Monetary Policy Committee. But some are not as convinced as I am.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In order to avoid any smidgen of such cynicism, would it not be better to be much open about selection? This is supposed to be an "inclusive" Government. I think it would be to their advantage to avoid the charge of being exclusive in such appointments. And from the point of view of the members, it does not help establish the "independence" of the "independent" members if they are seen to have been appointed in what could be called a cloak and dagger manner.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is an additional point: the current independent members do seem to be south-east Britain oriented. Is that a good idea? Of course, I recognise
      
      
      that appointing representational members is absolutely "not on", but I am sure that there is a raft of economists skilled in monetary matters living and working "north of The Wash" (extending the geographic area a few dozen miles north of Watford!). This is a serious point. On several occasions when taking evidence we were struck by the disparity of view concerning the impact of interest rates depending upon the sectoral and geographic base of the witnesses.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am very aware that the Monetary Policy Committee members are assiduous in trying to obtain up-to-date economic intelligence from sectors and regions. That involves lots of travel, hours of external meetings and masses of data. But if someone on the Monetary Policy Committee had first-hand experience of that disparity between sectors and regions and was based in the regions, it could add in a significant way to the knowledge base on which decisions are taken.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our second recommendation on the subject of the appointment of the independent members (at paragraph 7.14) states:
      &lt;q&gt;Our view is [that] an appointment period of five years will be efficient enabling new ideas to be brought in regularly without infringing the need for independence".&lt;/q&gt;
      There is always a difficulty in trying to balance experience and expertise. Sometimes, particularly the older one gets, one thinks that experience is not given the credit which is its due. Certainly, on our committee we gave huge credit to the experience of our most respected member, the nonagenarian noble Lord, Lord Roll. But many people would say that he is exceptional, the exception that proves the rule. Sadly, there are not too many Lord Rolls about the place now. However, even the most experienced noble Lord would agree that a constant infusion of new ideas and creative ways of looking at old problems is an essential ingredient in getting a good picture of the necessity for changes in interest rates&amp;#x2014;or indeed, no change in interest rates. One can become stale or even bored. The Monetary Policy Committee members are involved in exceedingly detailed analyses of a recurring nature. To go through a copy of the background data that we were given&amp;#x2014;some 300 charts and tables every month to peruse, analyse and decide upon&amp;#x2014;is really daunting. Indeed, as one who has done that&amp;#x2014;and I can see the noble Lord, Lord Peston, nodding in agreement&amp;#x2014;I know that economic analysis can be pretty turgid sometimes. Although they are all very dedicated people, there must come a time when they realise that a certain monotony pervades their study and would be willing to make way for new blood.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My noble friend Lord Saatchi drew attention to the fact that appointment to the Bundesbank is for a term of eight years and to the US Federal Reserve for 15 years. However, we decided that five years is probably the best length of appointment, both from the point of view of the Monetary Policy Committee as a whole, needing infusion of new blood, and indeed from the point of view of the individual members. Too long an involvement in the rarefied and constrained atmosphere of the Monetary Policy Committee could
      
      militate against them getting another position if they were not academics, or indeed even if they were. The experience gained while working as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee would always have a market value but such a value could reduce over a longer span than five years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We made a third recommendation: that the renewal of appointments should be rare if not impossible and that appointments should continue to be staggered. This recommendation is both essential, particularly the one about continuing to be staggered, and common sense. Continuity is important and the introduction of new members should be planned in such a way as to ensure that there is never more than one member climbing up the learning curve at the same time. It was inevitable that, at the commencement of the work of the Monetary Policy Committee, each independent member was faced with the problem of how to become effective and efficient as soon as possible. To be as successful as they have been shows what they are made of. However, future appointments, particularly if they are made in the same covert manner, might not be as successful.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      While we agreed that renewal should be rare if not impossible, in order to achieve the staggering of appointments, renewal might have to be undertaken in one or two cases. In such a situation, renewal could be made for a year or two at the most to provide a hand-over period to ensure that there would be minimum disruption to the work of the Monetary Policy Committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our fourth recommendation on the issue of appointment derives from the concern that the independents can be full time, and I quote:
      &lt;q&gt;we now accept that some full-time appointments must be made, but we would not care to see all the independent members being full-time".&lt;/q&gt;
      This is a very difficult one. The very nature of the work of the Monetary Policy Committee would militate against the part-time employment of almost all economists working in industry or commerce. I truly cannot see anything but conflict of interest. It would put the independent part-time member in a most invidious situation. There would scarcely be any situation where a conflict would not arise. I specifically mention industry or commerce because it is from those areas of economic activity that it is so essential that the Monetary Policy Committee should have members with real-time, hands-on experience.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I know that our report suggests that the field of independent members would be:
      &lt;q&gt;academics, employees of some charities and similar bodies'',&lt;/q&gt;
      but on reflection, I think we are being a little na&amp;#x00EF;ve to continue with that. The report also states:
      &lt;q&gt;and businesses, if there are any, where no possible conflict of interest could arise".&lt;/q&gt;
      I do not believe that there are any. Perhaps this is yet another issue that needs to be addressed by continuing scrutiny of a new permanent Select Committee, the appointment of which is suggested in the preface to the report and which I endorse.
    &lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;span class='time published'&gt;&lt;a href="#1999-11-04T17:13:00Z" name="1999-11-04T17:13:00Z"&gt;&lt;abbr class="dtstart" title="1999-11-04T17:13:00Z"&gt;5.13 pm&lt;/abbr&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;

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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-peter-goldsmith' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-peter-goldsmith" title="Mr Peter Goldsmith"&gt;Lord Goldsmith&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I rise with trepidation. There are two reasons for that and both are connected with the fact that I am a practising barrister in my day job. If noble Lords detect some poignancy in the use of the word "day" (having regard to the hours your Lordships have been keeping since I had the privilege of joining this House) you would be right.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The first reason for trepidation is that it might be thought that, as a professional advocate, I would experience no nervousness at standing to speak before your Lordships. That would be wrong. There are many similarities between what I do and your Lordships' proceedings, but there are significant differences. Perhaps the most significant is that I do not rise to argue someone else's case; I do not rise to say on instructions what the answer should be, but to try to express my own opinion. That opportunity is something of a novelty for someone who is normally a paid mouthpiece for others. I hope that it is one that I shall not abuse.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to echo the words of my noble friend Lord Lipsey in thanking so many Members of your Lordships' House for the kindness, welcome, warmth and help that I too have experienced since becoming a Member of your Lordships' House. People said that I would find the House welcoming. I think you have to experience it to realise how true that is. I am so touched, as he is, by the fact that that warmth and friendship is not simply from those on these Benches but from all quarters of the House and, having regard to present events and uncertainties, from all Members of your Lordships' House whatever the route by which they have reached this House, if I can put it that way.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I thank also the officers, staff and attendants for the help they have given me in trying to find my way around. I cannot say that I have yet succeeded, but at least I am beginning to know which parts I do not yet know my way around, if you follow my meaning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My second reason for trepidation is that I rise on a debate among so many distinguished experts, including economists and others who understand the subject. I come at this as a layman. I hope that it is of some comfort to my noble friend Lord Peston and to those who served with him on the committee that, as a layman, I found the report, to which I would, if it is not presumptuous, pay tribute, readable, interesting and clear. It told me much about the workings of the Monetary Policy Committee and the difficulties, for example, in relation to exchange rate targeting.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In one sense, no apology is needed for daring to speak on this subject before your Lordships because, although the matters covered in the report are technical in many areas, the subject on which they touch is absolutely critical and of the greatest importance to all people in this country. When, days after the election, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced the decision to give operational independence to the Bank of England on monetary policy, like many others I felt that it was a bold, decisive and right step. It is encouraging to see that the experts on your Lordships' committee endorse that decision.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      The report reminds us that, in the 1970s, inflation ran as high as 27 per cent at some points. That strikes home with me because that was when I was starting off in a career and starting a family, and the difficulties of considering how to plan a future against bust and boom and great uncertainty were considerable. I very much hope that my children, who are beginning to approach the same stage, will be able to make their decisions against a background of stable growth and high employment, which the Chancellor has identified as consequences of the present monetary policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The point on which I want to focus and on which perhaps I may have a little to contribute has already been touched on briefly by the noble Lord, Lord Ezra, and in rather more detail by the noble Baroness, Lady O'Cathain. It is the question of the appointment of the independent members of the Monetary Policy Committee. The report is convincing on the undoubted quality and distinction of the present members of the committee. It must also be right, indeed the statute so provides, that the appointments must be made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and nothing that I say is intended to undermine those propositions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There are two points that I want to make and I draw a little on my experience of the law in the context of the appointment of judges, a matter which is controversial and on which I do not intend to embark this afternoon. However, there are some parallels which can be perhaps drawn. One is in relation to the openness of the appointment procedures. The report shows&amp;#x2014;it was very much part of the Government's policy&amp;#x2014;that this new development should be open and accountable. In moving the Second Reading of the Bill which became the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt;, my noble friend Lord McIntosh of Haringey emphasised that point. It would be a great shame if the strong statements which have justifiably been made about accountability and transparency were undermined simply by a lack of understanding of how the appointment process works. I note that at paragraph 7.13 the report, although not in any way doubting the quality of recent appointments, expresses some concern that the appointment process was not understood.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the evidence, certain of the witnesses, including the noble Lord, Lord Desai, questioned whether advertisements might be used. The same issue arose in the law. In 1995, when I had the privilege of being one of the officers of the Bar, we had to consider, and make recommendations on, the appointment of judges. We found ourselves, a little to our surprise, recommending that even High Court judge appointments should be advertised. We took the view that that did not demean the office; that it was not incompatible with approaching individuals who were known to the Lord Chancellor; and that it certainly did not in any way mean that the noble and learned Lord was not the right person to make the appointment. However, it did mean that the constituency of potential appointees could be wider. It seemed to us that there could be
      
      
      surprises in that people who might have been thought not to be willing to serve might actually put their names forward.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I come to the second question, on which some time has already been spent, of full-time as against part-time appointments. I note that the committee was surprised at the start of its investigation to discover that some of the independent members were full time. I respectfully suggest that that might have seemed, at the time of the passage of the Bill, to be an improbable result. However, as the report shows, some of the independent members are full time although the Bank of England's own members are part time. In a sense, the "away team" has in some ways become more at home than the "home team".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is no doubt that considerable time must be spent on the work of the committee and any suggestion that it is a job that can be done by turning up once every three months and giving a bird's eye view of the economy is plainly wrong; but the fact that certain members of the committee are able to fulfil their responsibilities part time indicates that being full time may not be an inevitability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If I have understood the position, and particularly the evidence of the deputy governor, Mr Mervyn King, at questions 305 to 307, the question that arises is whether measures to avoid conflicts of interest restrict choice. It appears that only an academic post is considered to be compatible with membership of the committee. As the report says, in effect, an external member must either be an academic or a retired person or, if from a business background, must resign and sever his links with his former environment. I am in no position to judge whether others with different skills are right to be appointed to the committee, but I am concerned about whether that apparent rigidity limits the choice available to the Chancellor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I entirely recognise the commercial sensitivities of such appointments, to which reference has already been made. However, I note that the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Gouverneur&lt;/span&gt; of the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Banque de France,&lt;/span&gt; in giving his evidence at question 1391, identified as members of what had been his expert team, chief executive officers in the insurance and banking industries, as well as of small and medium-sized businesses. I wonder what procedures are in place there to avoid the same questions arising.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There may be such procedures. I refer, for example, to the full disclosure of interest which, in the case of agents or judges, may deal with what would otherwise be conflicts of interest. So too, "Chinese walls" can sometimes operate well. One must consider the circumstances, but they are well used by financial institutions in the City of London. Their effectiveness is recognised in the core conduct of business rules, published by the Financial Services Authority. As the Law Commission stated in its 1992 consultation paper on fiduciary duties and regularity rules, they require effective and detailed organisational arrangements, but they can sometimes work. Indeed, your Lordships' House in its judicial capacity in January of this year in &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Bolkiah v. KPMG&lt;/span&gt; held that in principle Chinese walls might even operate in litigation. I am not saying that
      
      I would for a moment know whether such procedures could operate, but the improbable result which your Lordships' committee found might be the result of believing that it is impossible to have such procedures.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In his book &lt;span class="italic"&gt;The Sign of the Four,&lt;/span&gt; Sir Arthur Conan Doyle describes Sherlock Holmes telling Dr Watson, with some exasperation,
      &lt;q&gt;How often have I said to you that, when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?&lt;/q&gt;
      In fiction, the author can fix the facts incontestably. That which he wants to be impossible can be impossible. In real life, when something leads to an improbable result, perhaps that leads one to go back and question whether that which was impossible really is impossible in all circumstances. So that the Government have the greatest choice of candidates in the future, I venture to suggest that this is a question that Ministers might revisit.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04598'&gt;
  
  5.26 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04599'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_103'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-burns' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-terence-burns" title="Mr Terence Burns"&gt;Lord Burns&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, my first task is a very pleasant one. It is to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Goldsmith, on a maiden speech of great clarity and insight. I think that I speak on behalf of all noble Lords when I say that we very much enjoyed his transition from paid hack to independent thinker and that we all look forward a great deal to hearing more example of his independent thinking and to having the benefit of his insights on a range of issues. I shall return a little later to some of the points that he mentioned, with which I very largely agree.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It has been a great pleasure to participate in the committee and I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for bringing the committee to such a wide measure of agreement. When we started, it looked highly unlikely that we would come to the degree of agreement that we had reached by the end, and it is fair to say that we all learned from each other as we went along. I regard that as being a very important part of serving on such a committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I find it useful to separate into two groups the issues that we covered. The first relates to the economics of monetary policy, and the second to the institutional arrangements for delivering that policy. There is now a fairly wide measure of agreement on the economics. In particular, it is generally accepted that the main purpose of monetary policy is to deliver low and stable inflation. Of course, that does not mean that everything is plain sailing. If inflation goes above target for whatever reason&amp;#x2014;whether world prices or forecasting errors&amp;#x2014;at some stage there will be difficult issues to address relating to how quickly to bring inflation back to the targets. There are still some very serious analytical issues with which policy-makers will have to deal when there are conflicts of objectives, including the behaviour of unemployment and, as we have heard today, the exchange rate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Overlaying all of the economic arguments is the ongoing judgment about the trend growth of the economy. Some people still argue that by giving growth a chance, we improve the chance of increasing
      
      
      the underlying growth rate. Others, as we know, argue that we may now have a new paradigm of global competition and pressure on prices, which is removing some of the difficult choices which were faced previously.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So, there is still plenty to argue about. I do not think that the economics profession is finished on the subject of monetary policy, and I very much doubt whether what we now seem to accept as a general agreement about many of these issues will remain for ever. For the moment, however, there seems to be a fairly broad level of agreement.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is now also fairly widespread agreement about the institutional arrangements for delivering the economics. The report is very much directed towards the second group of issues, and that is where I should like to focus my remarks.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report argues that the new arrangements have worked well, and it is right that the successes should be acknowledged. Inflation has been close to the target throughout the period; unemployment has continued to decline to levels not seen for many years; in particular, long-term interest rates and inflationary expectations are very much closer to the target than before. Those are the real achievements of the new system. Speaking from the viewpoint of a traditionally cautious civil servant, there are dangers in making excessive claims about the system. It is still early days. It is difficult to separate out how much of the success is due to the MPC arrangements, how much is due to the earlier framework of inflation targets and the published minutes on inflation&amp;#x2014;we came to describe them as "The Ken and Eddie Show"&amp;#x2014;and how much is due simply to favourable world conditions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I tend to agree with the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, in his excellent maiden speech, that the real challenge will arise when world inflation picks up. From that point of view we have been going through a remarkably benign period. I do not make these points to belittle the achievements of the new arrangements, but experience suggests that if the contribution of any innovation is over-estimated it leads to greater disappointment when the innovation comes up against tougher circumstances. We can be in no doubt that this regime will face tougher circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the same light, we should also look at the committee's recommendations that seek to point out weaknesses in the new arrangements in a number of areas. This is not a matter of questioning the basic idea of independent monetary policy, but trying to ensure that it is more likely to continue to be successful. I should like to raise a number of issues on which the committee touched. First, as to the inflation target, I am broadly happy with the formulation of the objectives of the MPC. The inflation target regime was introduced at the end of 1992. The new arrangements have moved us to a symmetric target which is a distinct improvement, but I caution that we should not go overboard on the success of the inflation targets.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The reason why explicit inflation targets were not adopted earlier was not because no one had thought of them but that when they were looked at they gave rise
      
      to a number of serious concerns, the most important of which was the time lags in the system. When one has very long time lags and it is difficult to predict inflation there is concern about whether, to put a lot of eggs into the basket of inflation targets, will lead one into difficulty at some stage. Over the past seven years inflation has been within a remarkably narrow band. I shall be extremely surprised if it continues to remain in that band. We must get used to disappointments in this area. I worry that people have concluded that somehow, after all the troubles of the past 25 to 30 years, the control of inflation is now very straightforward.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee had a lot of fun over the drafting of Section 11 of the Act and the requirement to support the Government's economic policy. The meaning of the words,
      &lt;q&gt;subject to that, to support the economic policy of Her Majesty's Government",&lt;/q&gt;
      came under a good deal of scrutiny. It became clear to some of us that the noble Lords, Lord Peston and Lord Barnett, had been engaged in this at an early stage. On one or two occasions I began to wonder whether they were seeking to turn the meaning of the Act into what they wanted in the first place. However, I am sure that that is an ignoble thought. The more I consider the words the more I find myself in agreement with the noble Lord, Lord Peston, that they have considerably less practical significance than appears to be the case. I am content with the general conclusion that inflation should be the overriding factor here.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee also spent some time discussing the whole question of the co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy. At various stages in my past career I have argued that one of the reasons for leaving monetary policy with the Chancellor is that it enables him to look at the subject of fiscal and monetary policy together. A number of questions were raised as to whether the new arrangements would cause difficulty in that area. As we heard more and more evidence and were taken through the process&amp;#x2014;for example, that fiscal policy was basically an annual process, that monetary policy was an ongoing process and what mattered was that each of the participants had a clear view of what the other was doing when making decisions&amp;#x2014;the conclusion at which I arrived was that, if the information was available to the policymakers, there should not be a problem on that front. If people want to disagree with a policy choice that is one matter, but I am not sure we received any evidence that the wrong policy had been chosen because the incorrect information was available.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, when we come to the question of the appointment of members of the MPC I have more concern. I share some of the concerns of the noble Baroness, Lady O'Cathain. I strongly support the principle that members should have,
      &lt;q&gt;knowledge or experience which is likely to be relevant to the Committee's functions".&lt;/q&gt;
      However, I would be concerned if that was interpreted as meaning that only university professors, or potential university professors, should apply. Many of us who have been involved in economics for a long
      
      
      time know that although knowledge or experience of monetary policy is important it should not be restricted to that. There are other categories of knowledge and experience that can also be helpful in this area and should not be under-estimated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I also support the committee's recommendation that appointments should be made in a more open fashion. At a minimum we should encourage people who believe that they have the qualifications to put themselves forward for consideration. The process of trawling through "the usual suspects"&amp;#x2014;of which I have had considerable experience&amp;#x2014;can easily become blinkered and give the unfortunate impression that choices are made from a very narrow circle. I strongly support the recommendation that external appointments should be for five years and normally not renewable. Often, political influence arises much more through the process of re-appointment than initial appointment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The response of the Government is that there is no reason why well-performing members should not be re-appointed, but how is that to be judged? I believe that the present three-year term sits very unhappily with a process where it is accepted that the time lags mean that changes in interest rates take two years to have their full effect. Therefore, we shall be judging people's performance on very little data. We know their voting records but do not know the quality of the arguments advanced because that part of it is anonymous. I believe that that is a recipe for suspicion, grievance and the appearance of passing judgment when it is impossible to do that fairly. I strongly believe that if we want members to be independent and avoid the threat of an implicit judgment on their performance we should have the courage to give them sensible terms of appointment and rotate membership.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report was particularly forward-looking in pointing to the paradox that
      &lt;q&gt;the only full-time members of the MPC are the outsiders".&lt;/q&gt;
      That seems to lead to some stress, as several noble Lords have said today. We have all read about the supposed arguments that take place within the bank about how far the independent members should have separate access to bank resources. I do not know the details. No doubt with a certain amount of good will a solution can be found. However, we must ask whether there is here a basic flaw. The committee expressed concern that three of the four outside members worked full time in the bank. Why that has arisen is understandable. They are restricted in their other activities if they are to avoid the possibility of conflict of interest, and the frequency of meetings makes it difficult for people to have university jobs outside London. Yet it is evident that to be a. member of the MPC is unlikely to be a full-time job.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I made reference to the noble Lord, Lord Goodhart, and asked how it was possible for him to do a job in two or three days a week which took other people five days a week. To that there is no answer. One asks: how do they fill the rest of their time? Research is one approach but that needs support. That is where the problem appears to arise. Furthermore, the idea of a
      
      
      group of independent members tucked away together in a bank with an independent research base taking five days to do a two or three-day job does not appear to be the basis for harmonious committee work in the longer term. I suggest that if members are to be truly independent and bring fresh thinking to the deliberations they should have their main base away from the bank, and preferably they should be separate from each other.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One possibility is other suitable part-time appointments within the public sector. Another is the base and research institutes or university departments with their own budgets for research assistants. The intellectual stimulation would then be taken away from the bank and we would avoid the feeling, which is clearly beginning to drift in, that somehow they are full-time and part of the bank, but, when it comes to resources poor relations compared with the executive members.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My final point relates to the conduct of the meetings. I return to a point I made previously, but, unfortunately, I was unable to persuade the committee. It relates to attribution in the minutes. I fully accept that as regards the interchanges during much of the meetings it would be counterproductive to identify who said what. I can see the argument that what matters is the emerging consensus. However, it is curious that when it comes to the summing-up we do not know why individuals were persuaded to move in one direction or another. The independent members appear to have no reservations about talking to the press or giving lectures setting out a framework of their views, but, when it comes to the meeting, all of a sudden they become extraordinarily coy about who said what. Indeed, after tracing some of the speeches one can identify certain speakers with certain paragraphs. Therefore, I hope that in the interests of transparency we shall see some progress on that aspect.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that the new arrangements have settled in well. The committee has been able to point to a number of areas. I hope that your Lordships' House will play an on-going role in monitoring the performance of the committee and will continue to be able to make suggestions.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04600'&gt;
  
  5.41 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04601'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_105'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-kenneth-woolmer' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-kenneth-woolmer" title="Mr Kenneth Woolmer"&gt;Lord Woolmer&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I stand before you to speak for the first time and have three causes for trepidation and one cause for a strong sense of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu.&lt;/span&gt; Trepidation because I speak to an outstanding report. Trepidation because I follow three excellent maiden speeches. Trepidation because as a former director of Leeds United, I have to tell your Lordships that the team kicks off in Moscow at six o'clock tonight and, unusually, I shall not be there to watch the game.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have a sense of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu&lt;/span&gt; because 20 years ago the Treasury Select Committee was established in another place and I had the honour to be a founding member. I remember well the contributions of the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, to those debates and I am delighted to see him on the Benches opposite tonight.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      Two of the advisers to that Select Committee were Dr Alan Budd and Professor Willem Buiter. He was then called William, but I notice that he is now called Willem. I must ask him when the change took place. Perhaps it was in order to become a member of the committee. Your Lordships will not be surprised to know that the Select Committee, in one of its first investigations, considered monetary control and monetary policy. That is only 20 years ago. Your Lordships might forgive my sense of &lt;span class="italic"&gt;d&amp;#x00E9;j&amp;#x00E0; vu.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      While I began life as an economist, in later life I have become more acquainted with business and management. I have the privilege of being the Dean of the Business School at the University of Leeds. As a result, I well understand the concern of those in industry of the impact of monetary policy on their sector. A number of witnesses alluded to the impact of monetary policy differentially upon industry and upon regions. However, if the implication is that monetary policy should be looser and inflation should be higher, I cannot agree. Adding 2, 3 or however many per cent to the inflation rate would not improve the performance of the manufacturing industry; nor would it improve the performance of individual regions with individual problems.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If anything, low and stable inflation enables us to see what the real position is. It enables us to cost the magnitude of doing something about these problems. Casual thinking about inflation is not a substitute for clear analysis and debate about the cause of real differentials in industrial or regional performance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, as regards the exchange rate, I sensed less clarity and agreement within your Lordships' committee than in other parts of the report. At one stage, the committee advised us that it is important not to exaggerate the problem of the value of the pound, reminding us that the pound sterling against the deutschmark is still below its level 10 years ago. At other times, it told us that even economists have no idea what determines the exchange rate and that with free markets the exchange rate is always right. Indeed, it advised us that, in any case, the authorities are not able to control the exchange rate. Yet I felt that it had chided the Monetary Policy Committee a little on not taking the exchange rate seriously enough. In the light of the advice of the committee, perhaps it is sensible not to try to do anything about the exchange rate, at least until we move, if at all, towards entry to the European common currency.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Conan Doyle has already been quoted tonight and I felt that at times there was in the report the dog that did not bark. Often, the question is whether the Monetary Policy Committee or anyone else can do a great deal about the exchange rate or even about interest rates. We live in an increasingly interdependent world. We all know that; it is common place to say it. In economic terms, we live extremely close to the European Union and my noble friend Lord Lipsey made some telling points in that regard. Also in economic and capital market terms, we live extremely closely to the United States. The degree of independence of the world economy, and our
      
      connections with Europe, calls into question the extent to which the monetary authorities, certainly in this country, are truly able to exercise much independence in monetary policy not only in relation to the exchange rate but also in relation to interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee explored the benefits of low and predictable inflation. I share the view with most, if not all, in this House that those benefits are considerable indeed. It makes transparent and readily understandable the real costs and benefits of our choices and decisions in the present and over time. But given the importance of confidence and expectations regarding the rate of inflation and of its stability, I should like to see that explored more by the committee, perhaps in its future deliberations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The frequently voiced concern about allegedly low annuity rates indicates that there remain at least some people in society who do not really believe that the rate of inflation will stay at 2.5 per cent or below. Wage negotiators must still go into talks having to aim at a nominal rate of wage increase, about double that of productivity, in order to ensure that inflation does not erode the otherwise gain they would receive from their increased productivity.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Therefore, inflation and expectations about inflation have not gone away. Perhaps they are only dozing and waiting for other events to happen. How do expectations and confidence regarding the rate of inflation in this country compare with those in other EU countries? How do our wage negotiators and our companies, in their wage negotiations, really see their expectations and how does that compare to elsewhere? How does that impact upon decisions in wage and product markets?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The committee asked the House to consider whether it might be helpful for the committee to be made permanent. For my part, I found its report helpful and a solid basis for taking forward consideration of these matters in future. I hope that the House in due course will feel able to support that suggestion.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04602'&gt;
  
  5.50 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04603'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_107'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-poole' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-poole" title="Mr David Poole"&gt;Lord Poole&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I begin by congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Woolmer, on his excellent first contribution to your Lordships' House. I must say that I particularly agreed with his observations, for example, on exchange rate matters. I am sure that with his long experience of local government, the other place, and, indeed, football, he will bring great wisdom and insight to our deliberations in the years to come. We welcome him.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It was a great privilege to serve on the committee under the chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Peston. It was really splendid from time to time to be joined by the noble Lord, Lord Roll, from whom I certainly learned a great deal, as I believe did my colleagues.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As your Lordships are aware, in our report we concluded that the MPC has played its hand fairly well. However, the truth&amp;#x2014;as has been remarked upon by a number of previous speakers&amp;#x2014;is that we do not really know as yet how robust these arrangements will
      
      
      be, because the system has not been in existence for long enough to be subjected to a sufficiently serious test, with inflation diverging significantly from its targets, really to prove itself.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As the bank says, and others have noted, the lag between monetary policy action and its full effects can easily be two years. In that case it is indeed true that, for the majority of its existence, the apparent success of the MPC in getting inflation down close to its target can, in my view, be more properly attributed to decisions taken by my right honourable friend Kenneth Clarke when he was Chancellor, than to anything done by the MPC itself.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It pays to look at the numbers. Of the 29 countries in the OECD, only five have an inflation rate over 3 per cent: Mexico, Iceland, Poland, Turkey and Hungary. If those countries are taken out, the OECD average is in fact 2.2 per cent, which is virtually identical to our own rate of inflation as measured by the RPIX, of 2.1 per cent. In other words, one could, if one was being unkind, say that all that has happened is that we have shared in the general international phenomenon of low and comparatively stable inflation rates, and therefore one could reasonably ask whether the MPC has actually achieved anything at all.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Our report states that a 2.5 per cent inflation target is appropriate at the current time. The noble Lord, Lord Peston, will know that I agree with that statement. None the less, it raises some difficult issues, about which, frankly, the Government must be much more honest. The Government repeatedly say that this inflation regime amounts to the maintenance of "price stability", an expression which even appears in the Government's response to our report. In effect, the Chancellor has set the MPC a task not to ensure price stability, but rather, to keep prices rising at not more than 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent per annum.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If that is price stability, then, like the president of the ECB and one member of the MPC, I am a Dutchman. Over 20 years, inflation of 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent per annum produces a cumulative increase in price level of 64 per cent. At that rate, the price level will double in about 28 years. I happen to live in Clapham, and from my omnibus&amp;#x2014;the 137&amp;#x2014;that hardly looks like price stability. It is just more stable than it used to be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It seems to me that there are two possible explanations, but only one of them amounts to a reasonable one. One explanation is that the official RPI measure overstates inflation, so that 2.5 per cent is somehow really a number much closer to 1 per cent. In that case, if one is aiming for price stability, accurately measured, then one does indeed need to aim for some small positive inflation number. However, next to no one believes that the RPI overstates inflation by as much as 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent per annum.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Therefore there is, in my view, a second explanation, which implies that there are good&amp;#x2014;although perhaps not necessarily compelling&amp;#x2014;arguments why the authorities should in fact aim for a positive rate of inflation even when it is properly measured. That is of course most easily expressed by the idea that "a little bit of inflation does you good".&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      As we took evidence, I came to believe that that indeed is the argument implicitly accepted by the Government. In other words, while they talk continually about price stability, the Government are deliberately aiming for inflation, albeit at a low rate. I understand that argument, and I accept that it is probably right at the moment, but somehow it does not sound satisfactory and I have a feeling that there is unfinished business here. At the very least, it is unsatisfactory continually to refer to this regime as one which maintains price stability, because that is grossly misleading. In the end, such misleading use of language can only undermine public confidence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that that goes to the heart of the matter. It was clear to most, or probably all, of us on the committee, that the old academic certainties which believed that there was a strong causal link between changes in interest rate levels and inflation have now been shown to be, frankly, less than certain. Although the MPC goes to huge lengths to analyse the economic runes, I, at least, am unpersuaded that anything approaching science is really at work. Until the MPC has safely guided us through some unexpected major economic shock without inflation running away, I personally shall believe that its work is more about the psychology of market management than the appliance of science.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If inflationary expectations have been reduced&amp;#x2014;and they certainly have&amp;#x2014;it is because interest rate decisions have been taken out of the political arena. That is the MPC's success, and, if I may say so, this Government's. It is now generally believed that inflation is being tackled, with the effect that it indeed is being tackled, with long term inflationary expectations now falling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If I am right that credibility is at the heart of the matter, the row which has broken out between the independent members of the MPC and senior bank officials over access to the bank's research resources is, in my view, far more dangerous than it looks. All the fuss in the press is a quite unnecessary shame, particularly if it is fed principally by the independent members, as I suspect that it may be. They have done all of us, and the Government, a disservice.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Let us face it: the row is about the current annual budgeting process within the bank. It is about resource allocation. As a matter of fact, the Act clearly states that it is a matter for the court, not the Governor, or the MPC, to decide. This is an internal issue which has been blown up in a way that may undermine the very thing which is making the MPC so successful: the credibility based on its collegiality.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In passing, one cannot help but observe that when the MPC was established, incidentally, the exact status and role of these independent members was unclear. I am led to understand that the Chancellor envisaged that they would indeed, as some have said that they should, retain full-time positions outside the bank&amp;#x2014;that is, to continue to be real people. In the event, only one, Professor Charles Goodhart, has done that. In practice, the other three have become full-time
      
      
      members. The irony pointed out by many is that those members are more full time than the bank staff on the committee who have other valuable things to do.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As regards the independent members, it would therefore be a very real shame if, by banging about so publicly, those inside-outsiders were to undermine the very thing that makes the MPC a success. The MPC's role is too valuable to have it frittered away by pointless public wrangling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I started by welcoming the noble Lord, Lord Woolmer, to this House. Perhaps I may be permitted to say that this is in all probability the last time that I shall have the privilege of speaking here. This afternoon some maiden speakers have said how kind people have been to them as they start here. I, too, should like to say thank you to all my friends and colleagues on all sides.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04604'&gt;
  
  6 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04605'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_109'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-sarah-hogg' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-sarah-hogg" title="Ms Sarah Hogg"&gt;Baroness Hogg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a mark of interest in this report that it should have attracted no fewer than four distinguished maiden speeches. If it has also attracted the last speech from my noble friend Lord Poole, I for one shall be extremely sorry.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In particular, I take the opportunity to welcome my former colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, to the House. I realise that if I were to refer to him as my noble friend, I should cause him some embarrassment. But because he is my friend, I should like to say how much I welcome him and how much, I know, he will add to this House's debates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The timing of this debate has been made most apposite by the revelation that certain systemic tensions exist between members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Therefore, while I commend this excellent committee and, in particular, its chairman, the noble Lord, Lord Peston, on its work, I focus my reflections on its recommendations regarding the role of the independent members of the MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Clearly, it has been desirable that independence should have been accompanied by an infusion of excellent independent economic talent into the Bank of England. However, I suspect that the form which the MPC takes may have to evolve; that we have, as with this House, a transitional MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The issue that has burst its way into the public print&amp;#x2014;if one can so disrespectfully describe the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times&lt;/span&gt;&amp;#x2014;is whether the independent members have sufficient rights to command resources within the Bank, and thus to arm themselves with research. Clearly, some independent members feel that they do not.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The answer that seems to please almost everyone is that the Bank should hire some more economists to support the independent members. The Governor of the Bank has been much criticised for not acting to satisfy them much earlier, rather than leave it to the Court of the Bank&amp;#x2014;which in truth has been left without much of a role to play in the new world&amp;#x2014;to see fair play. Hum! I believe that some of the criticism
      
      of the Governor is highly misplaced and that the weakness lies in the design of the MPC with which he was presented.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is all too easy to throw money at the problem, but I believe that the Court should pause for thought. Of course, it is important that the outside members should feel able to challenge the insiders. But from their voting patterns I can see little evidence that they did not. Of course, the longer they stay on the job and away from other jobs from which they may be debarred, the more they can be expected to run down their outside expertise and to need recharging, like batteries. However, the more the independent members are embedded into the comfort of the Bank with their own research staffs, the more they come to look like "insiders" rather than "outsiders". In an entertaining letter to the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times&lt;/span&gt; this week, Peter Oppenheimer warns them against allowing themselves to become a kind of monetary equivalent of the House of Lords. Therefore, I warmly support the recommendation of the Select Committee that appointments should be for no more than five years and non-renewable. I also support the committee's view that the process of appointment should be opened up.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The fundamental problem is that the independent members have a mongrel role; they are cross-bred out of two different ideas of, on the one hand, the non-executive director and, on the other hand, the outside appointment to an executive team. If they are non-executives, it is not clear to me that they require executive back-up. Rather, it might be better to follow corporate governance practice in the private sector&amp;#x2014;and here I agree with my noble friend Lady O'Cathain&amp;#x2014;and ensure that they have sufficient weight, not because they lead executive baronies but because they are in a majority on the MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Full-time appointments should be avoided, as they could be&amp;#x2014;here I beg to differ with my noble friend&amp;#x2014;if the Bank and Treasury were less anxious about conflicts of interest. I agree strongly with the noble Lord, Lord Goldsmith, that we are possibly too precious about this.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If, on the other hand, the independent members are in effect full-time executives, the distinction between outsiders and insiders disappears. I note in passing, and with absolutely no disrespect to those concerned, that the outside membership of the MPC would not pass the PIRC test of independence for non-executive directors. However, if they are intended to be insiders, it is then far from clear to me why we need so large an MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Does any organisation work well when nine different executive teams are charged with the same responsibility? I wonder whether the public would not at some future date come to ask whether it was necessary to maintain a whole series of academic baronies in the Bank in order to arrive at a decision whether to move interest rates by, it is hoped, only a quarter or a half percentage point at a time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It could be argued that economists are such peculiar animals, so diversely opinionated, that one is only likely to receive a sensible answer by averaging a large
      
      
      number of them. I forget which politician gloomily reflected that from six economists one receives seven conclusions, two of them from Mr Keynes. However, I recall that it was Truman who prayed to the Almighty&amp;#x2014;
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04606'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_110'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-andrew-mcintosh' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-andrew-mcintosh" title="Mr Andrew McIntosh"&gt;Lord McIntosh of Haringey&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, when the noble Baroness says "average" does she mean "a harmonic mean"?
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04607'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_111'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-sarah-hogg' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/ms-sarah-hogg" title="Ms Sarah Hogg"&gt;Baroness Hogg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I shall not go into the calculations of weighting means, but I believe I could pick out some weights that I should like to attribute. I believe I am right in saying that it was Truman who prayed to the Almighty to give him a one-handed economist.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is essential that the Bank is infused with contrary opinions and new ideas. That can be achieved by a succession of outside appointments, which the Bank has come to accept. My guess is that sooner or later&amp;#x2014;assuming, of course, that the Bank remains independent of the European Central Bank&amp;#x2014;the MPC will have to evolve closer to one of the two pure-bred models I described.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Meanwhile, I make one final point. If the Bank is to turn itself into a substantial academic institution with nine monetary economics departments, it is still not at all clear to me that its numbers need to increase. Even though regulatory responsibilities have passed to the FSA, the Bank seems to have retained a curiously large number of staff in the non-monetary area, right up, if I may say so, to a double helping of deputy governors. If it wants to keep the independent element in the MPC lean and mean, it could perhaps lead by example.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04608'&gt;
  
  6.7 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04609'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_113'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-robert-skidelsky' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-robert-skidelsky" title="Mr Robert Skidelsky"&gt;Lord Skidelsky&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I add my congratulations to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and to his colleagues for producing this important and thought-provoking report. If I may say so, this is the type of thing which our House does particularly well. It brings to important issues of public policy a lucidity and dispassion which are not always the most conspicuous features in the other place. Politicians think politically, and no one can object to that. However, policy is not just about politics; it is about what will work, and that is partly an intellectual question&amp;#x2014;a question of technique. Nowhere is that more so than in monetary policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      When I refer to this report as "dispassionate", I do not mean that it is uncontroversial. It shows very clearly that the theory of monetary policy is far from being an exact science. I would put it even more strongly than did the noble Lord, Lord Burns. Here are some of the unsettled questions which seem to emerge from the report. By what channels do changes in interest rates influence the price level&amp;#x2014;by changing the value of domestic assets or via the exchange rate? Do changes in interest rates have long-term effects on the real economy? What is the appropriate monetary policy target&amp;#x2014;the inflation rate, the exchange rate or the money supply? What is the right measure of inflation&amp;#x2014;the retail prices index or something called
      
      the "harmonised index of consumer prices"? Should one's target be a point or a range? What institutional set-up maximises the credibility of monetary policy? Is there a trade-off between independence and transparency? And so the questions go on. They are important questions, and we do not really know what the answers are.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Criticism has been made of our relatively high interest rates and their knock-on effects on the exchange rate. I sympathise with all those who have argued that that puts their businesses in jeopardy. But surely our interest rates reflect the higher perceived risk of inflation in this country. Any new system trying to establish its anti-inflationary credentials is bound to be more cautious to start with than it can be later on. That is an important point.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall pluck out three issues. I had intended to say something about the way in which the Monetary Policy Committee was set up, especially in the light of the recent complaint by the four independent members that they had too little influence on the Bank's research. I do not need to add to the excellent Leninist joke of my noble friend Lord Saatchi on that point.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, reinforcing what others have said, I am pleased to note that the report accepts that the independence of the external members of the MPC needs to be fortified, not only inside the Bank but also against the Chancellor. Three-year renewable appointments at high salaries seems to raise the problem of inconsistent incentives. Therefore, I agree with the committee when it says that the appointments, as well as being staggered, ought to be for five years rather than three and in general should be non-renewable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      A second important issue raised by the report concerns the apparent incoherence of the Chancellor's mandate. His instructions to the Bank are&amp;#x2014;I quote paragraph 1.6 of the report&amp;#x2014;
      &lt;q&gt;to maintain price stability",&lt;/q&gt;
      and,
      &lt;q&gt;subject to that, to support the economic policy of Her Majesty's Government, including its objectives for growth and employment".&lt;/q&gt;
      What does the phrase "subject to that" mean? Suppose the Government's objectives for growth and employment are inconsistent with the 2.5 per cent inflation target. In theory the Chancellor can simply change the inflation target to accommodate that, but that would endanger the credibility of the Bank as the guardian of sound money.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This discussion demonstrates that there is no guarantee in the Chancellor's system that monetary and fiscal policy will be consistent with each other. Had fiscal policy been tighter in 1997 it is possible that monetary policy could have been looser. That is an example of what can happen when there is a monetary constitution but not a fiscal one to go with it. In place of a fiscal constitution we have the Chancellor's commitment to the golden rule. However, he is at liberty to break that whenever he wants and it is much too vulnerable to creative accounting.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      I urge the Government to consider setting up a fiscal policy committee whose job it would be to police the definitions in the public accounts, including what we mean by "capital accounts" and to keep an eye on the Treasury's cyclical forecast. In order to satisfy the criterion of the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, of complete impartiality, that committee could also be given the job of costing Opposition spending plans. There will never be a sure-fire way of dealing with what Keynes once called the "wicked Chancellor problem" or even the wicked Shadow Chancellor problem. A fiscal policy committee of the kind that I have suggested would be in line with the present trend to place macroeconomic policies at a further distance from electoral politics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My final point is more fundamental. We all tacitly accept the assumption that the great reduction in the inflation rate achieved since the 1980s has been due to a more independent monetary policy, a process started by Kenneth Clarke in the previous Government. However, I noticed that Mr Clarke is far from convinced of that himself. In his evidence to the committee he said:
      &lt;q&gt;As a layman, what I think has happened is we have global competition as never before. We have a pace of technological change as never before. The ability to raise productivity in some sectors of the economy is quite immense. The ability to hand on price increases to restore margins is very, very limited, so that one sees around the world prices confined, earnings confined and expectations changing".&lt;/q&gt;
      That suggests to me that the better conduct of monetary policy has not been the only, and perhaps not even the most important, cause of the long-term fall in the inflation rate. It is now much less costly in terms of short-run output and employment to have a low inflation policy than it used to be in the period from the 1960s through to the 1980s. We have a 2.5 per cent inflation target, not because that has any particular logic or virtue&amp;#x2014;although economists can always be found to praise the health-giving properties of a little inflation&amp;#x2014;but because what I may call the natural rate of inflation&amp;#x2014;the rate at which the forces pushing down the price level and those pushing it up find a certain equilibrium&amp;#x2014;is lower than it used to be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What happens if, as the noble Lord, Lord Desai, and Mr Roger Bootle suggested in their evidence, the natural rate of inflation falls even further and we enter an era of falling prices, as happened in the last quarter of the nineteenth century? All our thinking and policy-making since the war have been geared to the problems of an inflationary economy. We have scarcely begun to think about the consequences of an economy in which prices have a natural tendency to fall. What would be the effect of that on output and employment? What kind of mandate would the Chancellor give to the Bank in those circumstances? Those problems may come upon us sooner than we think. That is a matter for another Select Committee on another occasion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Meanwhile I repeat my thanks to this Select Committee for packing so much good matter into such a small number of words.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04610'&gt;
  
  6.16 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04611'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_115'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-swraj-paul' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-swraj-paul" title="Mr Swraj Paul"&gt;Lord Paul&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, first, I must declare an interest. I am chairman of the Caparo Group, a company engaged in manufacturing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Today we have heard four excellent maiden speeches. The House is made richer by the arrival of those noble Lords and I look forward to hearing more contributions from them. I am sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, will not contribute in future dates, but perhaps we shall see him in another incarnation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      A decade or so ago, the notion of entrusting central bankers with independent operational responsibility for monetary policy would have been unusual. It is testimony to the exceptional changes that have recently taken place in the world of economics that this idea has increasingly become a global reality. As your Lordships know, we too have lived under this new regime for about two-and-a-half years, yet the very newness of this process raises certain fundamental issues.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Select Committee on which I had the honour to serve was very much aware that it was sailing in uncharted waters. In many ways, the report before the House today reflects that perception. As an ordinary manufacturer, I found sitting in the company of such eminent colleagues a daunting task. I thank the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for his excellent chairmanship which made the work of the committee most enjoyable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The wisdom of transferring operational responsibility has, I believe, been affirmed by what we have seen of its working. So I would like to pay tribute to the vision of my honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who so courageously decided to initiate and implement this effort. Rare is the politician who seeks to depoliticise history. Few things are for ever, but perhaps the new approach will give us the long-term price stability that is so essential for solid and steady economic growth. Policy independence may well liberate us from those cyclical gyrations that are inspired by the temptations of politics. This is certainly something which we all find desirable.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Your Lordships will have noted that the report of the Select Committee raises certain conceptual concerns. Obviously, the franchising of an initially untested mechanism such as the Monetary Policy Committee provokes questions about public scrutiny and parliamentary accountability. That we have thus far had few serious worries about this is more a tribute to those who serve on the Committee than to the viability of existing procedures. This is why I strongly endorse the sentiments of the Select Committee that this House should consider its reconstitution on a permanent basis. Insulation from political pressures does not mean insulation from scrutiny. Indeed, I feel that ongoing scrutiny can significantly contribute to the workings of the Monetary Policy Committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My satisfaction with the overall operations of the MPC is somewhat tempered by its impact on the manufacturing industry of this country. I believe that manufacturing is a fundamental part of the economic
      
      
      strength of Britain. That is why I am concerned about the consequences for manufacturing of decisions by the Monetary Policy Committee. Interest rates affect exchange rates and exchange rates affect the pricing of our exports. Technological expertise has become so universal, and sufficient productive capacity exists in Europe, that many of our exports today have to compete on price; and exchange rates have been running against us. Many businesses find that this causes them to be seriously disadvantaged in export markets, while domestic markets are eroded by imports cheapened by a favourable exchange rate. I give an example. Even in a small company such as mine, an adverse exchange rate of one pfennig draws &amp;#x00A3;200,000 from the bottom figure.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This has had an unfortunate impact on the manufacturing sector. Recent reports indicate that the number of companies going into receivership in the third quarter of this year was increased by 13 per cent and that manufacturing businesses accounted for more than one-third of this. The Midlands has been worst afflicted, with receivership rising by 57 per cent over the past year. It is difficult to estimate precisely what proportion of this is due to exchange rate disadvantages. However, it was the view of several witnesses who testified before the Select Committee that exchange rate disadvantages contributed significantly to these problems. Having had some experience in this area, I strongly concur.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Your Lordships will also have seen press reports about how exchange fluctuations cause companies to fix their own artificially adjusted rates in their transactions abroad. My noble friend Lord Barnett asked what the rate should be. One of the companies in Europe has already decided that it should be 2.60 to 2.65 when they purchase products from Britain. These are not healthy developments for British business.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that the Monetary Policy Committee needs to examine this situation with some urgency. Macro-economic stability is a worthy objective, but it would be much more useful also to take into account the sectoral impact of policy. If the MPC is unable to find a satisfactory resolution of this, or if its remit does not embrace exchange consequences or sectoral analyses and adjustments, the Government must evolve some other mechanism to deal with it. As our principal competitors and markets function under a common euro rate, British industrialists are heavily penalised. Such penalties will increasingly be reflected in lower profits and declining investment, to our future detriment. Without continuing investment, it will be impossible to support the advances in research and production that are so essential to meet the challenges that today's competition demands. We simply cannot allow this to happen to British manufacturing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I see the Monetary Policy Committee in too large a context. However, I think that we have in the Committee a very valuable economic instrument. I am anxious that it should be used to make the broadest possible positive impact on our economy. However, as it grows into full maturity, it will need to look more closely at the interconnections and relationships that it engenders. As it does so, it will appreciate that the
      
      Monetary Policy Committees have to develop a permanently bifocal vision. They are both independent and organic parts of the body of an economic nation.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04612'&gt;
  
  6.26 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04613'&gt;
  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_117'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-howell' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-howell" title="Mr David Howell"&gt;Lord Howell of Guildford&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, this undoubtedly is an extremely interesting report, put together under the very skilled and experienced chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Peston. I read it very carefully and found it to be full of very wise cautions about the spurious precision and alleged magic properties of economic fine tuning. Indeed, that is what I would expect of a committee that was able to draw on the timeless wisdom of my colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Roll, from whom I have learnt a very great deal over the years and with whom I have had the privilege to work outside your Lordships' House.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have listened with interest to the debate arid in particular to the marvellously illuminating speech of my noble friend Lord Skidelsky. In the light of the questions that he raised, in the light of the onrush of electronic-commerce, the beginning of that vast area of transformation, and in the light of the total capital markets revolution that is now taking place, transforming the entire workings of financial markets world-wide, I could not help but feel that, to borrow a phrase from the late Anthony Crosland,
      &lt;q&gt;We are in danger of holding this debate in an entirely obsolete intellectual framework".&lt;/q&gt;
      I should like in a few minutes to share with your Lordships my reasons for reaching that conclusion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I begin with the simple theory that is set out very clearly in the report behind the MPC and behind the whole attempt by central monetary authorities to control inflation. The theory is simple. It is that raised interest rates in the short term will reduce demand and so drain out inflationary pressures which it is feared will develop in the future. That is what the simple mechanism demands. That is what lies behind the activities of bodies such as the MPC or central monetary short-term economic fine-tuning around the world. However, this report highlights very clearly that, in practice, the transmission mechanism is infinitely more complex. I suspect that it is even more complex&amp;#x2014;dare I say it&amp;#x2014;than the report itself suggests, because no more are price levels chiefly determined by demand levels; nor is demand, even if that can be influenced or determined by fine-tuning interest rates. We have to accept that; we heard it in some of the speeches from your Lordships this afternoon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Other factors which probably lie not only outside economic models, but also outside economics altogether&amp;#x2014;certainly economic theory&amp;#x2014;are far more influential in operating on what is likely to be the evolving price level two years on, or whatever the policy goal is. By that I mean of course the amazing advance of competition; transparency throughout the world thanks to the Internet and the rise of e-commerce; the collapsing transaction costs of the kind with which your Lordships are familiar&amp;#x2014;in the American banks a transaction that once cost 100 dollars now costs one cent, and that is mirrored in
      
      
      transaction costs across the whole of industry and commerce; and the huge shift of costs on to consumers themselves with the odd paradox that it is consumers who not only pay, but feel more in control and enjoy paying in order to get more direct access to capital markets or, in the case of voters, to policy or, in the case of consumers, to the producers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is interesting that the Cabinet Office Performance and Innovation Unit says in its e-commerce report&amp;#x2014;an interesting document&amp;#x2014;that communications technology over the past three years not only contributed 35 per cent of total growth, but also had a significant downward pressure on inflation. It is an anti-inflationary force which lies far outside anything to do with jiggling around with interest rates or peering two years ahead and trying to hit targets. So the Select Committee is totally right to question the great over-simplicity of this relationship and the doctrines and views that lie behind it. That is my first point. But I would go a little further.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      My second point is: does the Monetary Policy Committee (this applies to any central monetary authority) really know what the true price inflation rate is? A guess two years ahead is a matter of opinion. Does it really know it now? In Section 3 of this excellent report it is pointed out, as others have, that inflation can be altered at a stroke just by adopting a different index. Even then, those indices may be extremely unreliable because there is great difficulty in getting hold of quality improvements, discounts, sales and all the other realities of the price level. So the question of what inflation is now is really a matter of art and dart-throwing rather than any accurate assessment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Thirdly, can the MPC, or a similar body, really measure the demand, internal or external, or the output capacity that exists in a knowledge-based economy? I do not believe it can. The output of an economy nowadays is the output of a process; not a fixed system. It is a process of a massive accumulation of intellectual capital and in that atmosphere the output gap, by which the MPC lays considerable store, so it says, is simply an unknowable quantity. There is no static and fixed ceiling to the capacity of an economy like ours. Any short-term pretence to regulate the economy in the belief that one knows what the capacity is, what the demand is and what the gap between them is&amp;#x2014;all of which are unknowable quantities&amp;#x2014;is likely to lead not to more stabilisation but to more instability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Fourthly, does the MPC know what the level of productivity is? In America many economists are now conceding that they have no idea how to measure productivity now that the main economic resource is no longer labour, land or capital, but intellectual capital and knowledge. If all the gains of technology do not show up in output measurement because they are embodied in better quality, larger variety, greater user-friendliness and that sort of thing, then how can one know, from looking at the conventional measures of productivity, what is really happening in the corporate sector?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      Fifthly, does the MPC have any more idea than the rest of us about the level of employment? The work pattern, as we know, is dissolving. It is not the old measure that our forebears thought they could make of the labour market. It is dissolving into a swirling blur of full and part-time work and self-employment, and the nature of work itself is changing. That is why concepts like NAIRU (non-inflationary rate of unemployment) are now completely meaningless and do not help at all in guiding economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Sixthly, can the MPC separate manufacturing and services? We go on about the manufacturing sector, but this kind of "sector approach" is completely out of date. Certainly in the financial sector there is no hope of disentangling manufacturing, which is riddled with services, from services which are interwoven with manufacturing. The whole thing is also permeated by information technology which is neither a service nor a manufacture and has no economic categorisation at all. That is not just opinion. We know what happened when the poor Office for National Statistics got into a muddle over this. It did not know what the service industry was. Then, when it felt it did, it tried to measure earnings in it but unfortunately the wrong people replied to its questionnaire and it could not get hold of the bonuses and so forth. It then came out with some figures which completely misled the distinguished MPC, which consequently raised interest rates. Afterwards it admitted it would not have done so if it had known the truth.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Seventhly, even if the MPC could measure the real economy, which I do not believe it can, and the current level of demand, which I doubt, one has to ask the question which is again raised in this report: can it really fine-tune the real economy via short-term interest rates? I doubt that very much indeed. That is partly because it is all a very crude and indirect mechanism; partly because the whole myriad pattern of borrowing and lending rates today and the new financial markets in which we operate, reflecting the needs of millions of participants, are vastly varied, and changing official short-term rates may only affect the shortest of short terms at the very beginning of the term structure and the yield curve, but not beyond that point. Again, that is a point made very well in the report.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So, in our revolutionised capital markets, I feel that one can almost validly assert that command of the whole interest rate structure is actually impossible and attempts to fine-tune it from the short end are completely impossible. One hears people like Alan Greenspan, who is a wise man, admit that central monetary authorities can only have an oversight. They cannot control.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Eighthly, can the MPC operate on the money supply? No, because smart cards and non-bank credit sources are now making the monetary economy decreasingly controllable. There are people in your Lordships' House who doubted whether the supply of money or the quantity of money was ever a realistic concept anyway. I agree with them and so do many professorial experts outside this House. Even if they could control the supply of money or even if interest
      
      
      rate rises could be achieved, which would actually change the whole pattern of interest rates, would it have the effects attributed to it? It may be that the results are perverse, not the automatic transmission as listed in your Lordships' report. It is quite possible that if interest rates are raised, house prices will rise. The latest interest rate is said to have been partly influenced by the belief that there is a house price bubble. If interest rates are raised, the net effect would be to increase the bubble because it would increase mortgage fund availability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Above all, of course, the whole business of the transmission depends, as again this excellent report makes clear, on whether or not people believe that these endless little changes will be long or short lasting. By definition, as they are so frequent, most people take not the slightest notice. They are very short-lasting. It is believed they will be changed again. That is what paragraph 4.16 of the report rightly indicates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not dispute that low inflation is desirable or that sound money is, of significant but not of total importance in achieving a low inflation environment; but I question whether we have put this matter in the right perspective. The best recent headline I saw was one from the national institute, which said that the MPC could have left interest rates alone&amp;#x2014;another noble Lord made this point&amp;#x2014;and the outcome would have been no different.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That leads me to only one conclusion: that the powers of central bankers, not only the MPC, are nowadays vastly exaggerated. When I was at King's College, Cambridge, 40 years ago, Maynard Keynes' ideas dominated and the Keynesian "demand" fine-tuners were the lords of the earth; now the central banking, monetary fine-tuners are the lords of the earth. They are the high priests of a dying religion, practising arcane rituals while the crowd, which is mainly the bond markets, sway and murmur at every rumour of priestly activity. I suppose the height of mumbo-jumbo is this absurd "Taylor rule" about neutral interest rates, with which I shall not bore your Lordships now. It is the ultimate nonsense in over-scientific economic manipulation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Montague Norman&amp;#x2014;who is not everyone's friend&amp;#x2014;when asked his reasons for an interest rate change by some cheeky journalist, said:
      &lt;q&gt;I don't have reasons: I have feelings".&lt;/q&gt;
      Feelings would be a much better guide to the limited role that all this interest rate manipulation can play than the attempt to produce these arcane and unreliable reasons.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      With the exception of the Austrian school of economists, which I greatly admire, the truth is that modern economists are really artists pretending to be scientists. Like the rest of us, they are amateurs pretending to be professionals. I strongly believe that economic theory today of the modern kind creates a deformity of perception about what is going on in our society and what policy makers should be doing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      Perhaps I may dare to quote Keynes in the presence of my noble friend Lord Skidelsky. He once said:
      &lt;q&gt;Economists are of little use if all they can do is tell us when the storm is passed that the ocean is flat again".&lt;/q&gt;
      When I hear that the answer to the problems of the present is for the Bank of England to hire 30 more economists, I think "Heaven preserve us"! My noble friend Lady Hogg was quite right to query whether that was the right way forward. We need not more economists but fewer pretensions on the part of our economists, economic advisers, central bankers and political leaders about what they can achieve.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We need a much more humble understanding of the very marginal role which monetary fine tuning, like fiscal fine tuning before it, can play in the evolution of our prosperity and in the driving forward of a modern wealth-creating economy. If that sounds heresy today, I forecast that it will be orthodoxy tomorrow. The sooner we understand, as the Austrian school really did understand, what drives the economic processes of growth and employment, the sooner we can stop wasting our time on the spurious and discredited science of economic management.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  6.41 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04615'&gt;
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  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Lord Bruce of Donington&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I suspect that I am not unique among your Lordships in being quite surprised when, within a matter of seven or eight days after the general election, the Government, through its Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced that they were renouncing one of the most important controls to affect the British economy&amp;#x2014;namely, the determination of the rate of interest&amp;#x2014; and establishing the Monetary Policy Committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have always been a little suspicious when people talk about becoming "non-party" or "non-political". That always seems to me to indicate that there is some doubt somewhere about one's own cherished political and economic beliefs. That is undoubtedly so because, immediately following the announcement, economists began to take an interest in the whole economy and also to challenge some of the basic assumptions that they had hitherto made. All this is very desirable. If going "non-political"&amp;#x2014;and I am afraid that that description can never apply to me&amp;#x2014;produces a tendency to doubt among economists generally, professional economists in particular, so be it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In fact, I detect a re-examination among economists of all the assumptions on which their publications and their public utterances have been made in the past. That is good. Speaking more philosophically, I think that there is beginning to be&amp;#x2014;astonishingly enough&amp;#x2014;an admissibility of a possibility of error. Perish the thought! When people begin to admit the feasibility of error, that is the beginning of wisdom. The Select Committee's report reflects exactly this new and welcome humility among those who are, after all, quite ordinary mortals, despite their economic qualifications.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to pay tribute to the chairmanship of this important Select Committee, whose report and evidence I read from cover to cover. I must
      
      
      congratulate my noble friend Lord Peston on the extremely penetrative questions that he asked witness after witness&amp;#x2014;indeed, on occasions, he did so almost to a point where one could sense that he was becoming irritated by some of the replies that he was receiving. This contributes to the fact that as a most eminent economist, and someone for whom I have the utmost personal respect, my noble friend has almost abandoned any idea that he can make future forecasts. The enormity of this position must surely be appreciated. In fact, it permeates the work of the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should also like to pay tribute to the members of the committee in the questioning of the witnesses. Even in the case of the noble Lord, Lord Ezra, who, as we know, is one of the mildest mannered of people, there was an occasional note of asperity in his questioning. I have looked through the evidence and have read the report. I repeat: I congratulate both the chairman and the committee on their work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, admitted this afternoon the extent of the present uncertainties. Practically every part of economic analysis in the noble Lord's mind is now open to question. Of course that should be so. Up until now, economists have based their conclusions largely on the assumption that people behave reasonably. But people do not behave reasonably.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The other reason why there is unease&amp;#x2014;and this has exhibited itself in the Monetary Policy Committee and the Select Committee&amp;#x2014;is the tenuous nature of the data upon which those concerned are constrained to work. In determining price stability they have to rely on the RPI and the harmonised index of consumer prices: the first of which operates on the basis of arithmetic means; and the second on the basis of geometric means. Indeed, "means" is the word because they tend to operate on averages. There is no such thing as an average person in the country, except perhaps by accident. The conditions of people vary and the conditions of price vary. They vary not only from town to town but also in terms of time and in terms of coverage, and are very difficult to ascertain.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There was a time&amp;#x2014;now happily passed&amp;#x2014;when price data was collected during the spare time of workers in the social security departments. I gather that that practice has now ceased and that there are possibly slightly more authentic means of filling in the forms to send back to headquarters as to how local prices are going. But in point of fact the data, which is at the disposal of the MPC and of the Select Committee, does not rest on a firm basis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is a further reason for insecurity in the matter. The effects of actions that are taken in relation to interest rates are known. My noble friend Lord Paul has given some graphic examples of the effects of interest rates on the export industry. We cannot determine effects from data&amp;#x2014;when it is available and used for that purpose&amp;#x2014;within a couple of years. That means, in effect, that at this stage we have little idea&amp;#x2014;the committee of your Lordships' House has little idea of this&amp;#x2014;of what effect the activities of the Monetary
      
      Policy Committee have had on the economy as that will not emerge until much later. Then it will be possible to make more objective judgments.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One view to which the committee committed itself&amp;#x2014;I understand that the report was unanimous&amp;#x2014;is that in the long term inflation and unemployment have but little correlation; at least the committee states that that is now the majority view. However, we simply do not know whether that is the case. The other assumption of ruling economic thought has always been that somehow one can identify the large and powerful interests in the City of London as being identical with those of the country as a whole. If the City and institutions prosper, this is automatically assumed to indicate a national recovery. However, that is far from the case.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As a recent report from one of the prominent statistical institutes indicates, there are 2 million people in the country without any assets at all. There are 12 million people in the country who are at or below the accepted poverty line. However, they are part of the economy. I do not speak in the personal sense but they are a factor to be taken into account. Yet the committee has not had in its possession&amp;#x2014;or, if it has, it has not seen fit to endorse it&amp;#x2014;the opinion of the Commons Select Committee on the validity of national statistics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The statistics that are used for unemployment vary according to convenience. One set of statistics which is related to what is called "the claimant count" comprises a figure of 1,200,000 and the other relates to what is euphemistically described as the "Government's preferred index"; that is, the ILO index, which is another half a million more. If one takes into account the real figure of people available and wanting to work, the figure rises to 4 million.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Is, or is not, the state of unemployment in this country and the state of wealth or poverty in the country as a whole, a factor to be taken into account by the MPC, always subordinate, of course, to price stability, as the Chancellor has made quite clear? These are matters to which the MPC should address itself. These are matters moreover which, in my respectful submission, should in future be considered by the committee of your Lordships' House which, in addition to becoming permanent&amp;#x2014;which I believe it should be&amp;#x2014;should be given a far wider remit in considering rather larger areas of the economy than the question of interest rates in the light of what it considers to be prevailing economic trends in the country.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      These are matters for your Lordships' consideration. I consider that one of the most compelling reasons for the appointment of your Lordships' committee on a more permanent basis, and for the extension of its remit, is the fact that there is a Treasury representative in every Ministry in the United Kingdom. It is the Treasury that ultimately determines the development of social policy. I think that social policy has a relevance to economic policy. Either people are poor and subject to crime, injury, ill health, lower life expectancy and all the rest of it, or
      
      
      they can participate more actively in the economy and cause others to consider them rather than considering only those who are rich and powerful and who can contribute to party funds on a substantial scale.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      These are the matters which I hope that the committee will be able to address. I hope that it will draw evidence from those in Ministries and from those in the Treasury itself who have representation in individual Ministries, in order to make sure that a sane and reasonable economic and monetary policy is followed in the interests not of one section of the community but of the country as a whole.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04616'&gt;
  
  6.56 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-nigel-vinson' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-nigel-vinson" title="Mr Nigel Vinson"&gt;Lord Vinson&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it was indeed a great honour to serve on this committee and to examine what must be one of the most important areas of national policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      But first I would like to use this opportunity to thank the many witnesses who went out of their way, sometimes at considerable personal inconvenience, in order to give evidence to us. I have little doubt that their evidence will be of great benefit to economic policy-makers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We have travelled over quite a lot of well trod ground already tonight. However, there is little doubt that the remit of our committee, coupled with time constraints, prevented us from looking in sufficient depth at the possible long-term consequences of the new relationship between the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor. Does dual control work? Will it work under adverse conditions? Can the ship of state be satisfactorily steered by two captains?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We did not look in depth to see whether these new arrangements can and will give the appropriate balance between monetary and fiscal policy. We did not examine whether there are alternative arrangements which might help achieve the same goals but with fewer adverse side effects.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Currently all concerned are preening themselves with delight at the apparently successful outcome of the present arrangements, but a number of questions have to be asked. Has their apparent success in controlling inflation been due to the new mechanisms or coincidentally due to these mechanisms operating at a time when we are fortunate to have a particularly benign inflation scenario, helped not least by the dramatic fall in world commodity prices? Coupled with this, of course, has been the exceptional strength of the pound.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This begs the question as to whether the control of inflation, largely through the interest rate mechanism, is the right method, particularly under adverse conditions probably coming soon, when commodity prices start to rise. That was a point well made in the maiden speech of the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      So often in the past we have seen governments raise interest rates and all the costs that go with them in order to try to control externalities, but in doing so they have merely exacerbated the very malady they have tried to cure. That point was well made by the noble Lord, Lord Howell.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      Interest rates are a very blunt weapon, and it has to be asked: at what cost has inflation currently been controlled? As the noble Lord, Lord Paul, pointed out, manufacturing output has barely grown, our balance of trade has deteriorated and the whole of our export and internationally exposed sectors are having an exceedingly rough time&amp;#x2014;agriculture in particular. What a paradox, when in practice these very sectors are the least inflationary, and most domestic inflation is generated by the service sector, which largely booms along, thriving on an overvalued pound. Surely there must be a better way of controlling inflation than&amp;#x2014;to put it crudely&amp;#x2014;in order to take the heat out of the housing market, we batter the export sector.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Some people may argue that it is desirable to raise the value of the pound in order to control inflation. They have obviously never been in the front line of exporting. Profit margins seldom exceed a few per cent; if the value of currency rises over 10 per cent, as it has done recently, margins disappear. I wonder how many people have suffered the heartbreak of seeing a hard-won export order&amp;#x2014;won on quality and price&amp;#x2014;sacrificed by an overvalued pound.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Economic fashions go up and down like hemlines. Currently it may be fashionable to decry the importance of our balance of trade&amp;#x2014;but at the end of the day we as a trading nation depend on it and we play with its prosperity at our peril. Our economic policy&amp;#x2014;the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, referred to this&amp;#x2014;can hardly be described as successful when these factors are considered.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The problem is that economic policy currently treats symptoms not causes. There are a number of reasons why sterling is so strong, many of them complex. One of them is our high relative level of short-term interest rates compared to others due to our perceived higher levels of inflation. Increasingly it appears that the measurement of inflation consistently overstates the situation. It is good to see that our recommendations questioning the authenticity of the RPI figures have already been put into practice. Steering the economic ship of state on faulty dials has happened too often in the past, greatly to the subsequent detriment of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The perceived rate has great influence on wage negotiations, the source of much inflationary pressure. I hope we can move to the HICUP index, which not only appears to indicate a lower rate of inflation than the RPI but would enable&amp;#x2014;at a glance&amp;#x2014;the unsophisticated to compare our rate of inflation with others. Experts may be able to make the mental adjustments between HICUP and RPI, but a wide perception exists that our rate of inflation is substantially higher than elsewhere when, on strictly comparative terms, often it is not. I believe that the perceived rate of inflation has been responsible for keeping our interest rates at a much higher level than they would be and that, as a consequence, sterling is propped up by such rates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that even HICUP exaggerates inflation. I have a strong suspicion that both indices fail adequately to take into account increases in quality&amp;#x2014;
      
      
      again a point made by the noble Lord, Lord Howell. Perhaps I may reinforce his point by making another. If over years the standard of living increases by roughly 2.5 per cent per year, then it doubles every 25 years. In order for the standard of living to double, relative prices must effectively halve. It is this element of price reduction and/or quality improvement which I believe is seriously missed in the current calculations of both indices, not least because they are so hard to measure.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This brings me back to the central theme of my argument; namely, that policies often address symptoms, not causes. Interest rates are raised to take the heat out of the housing market. If you ration any commodity, prices rise; and if you ration land, house prices rise. We are effectively trying to use monetary policy to control the effects of land rationing. House prices in any normal market would not rise if demand could be met by supply. By excessively rationing land through the planning system, we introduce a factor into our economic management which makes distortions all along the line, currently greatly to the detriment of the internationally exposed sectors of our economy through which, ultimately, we have to earn our keep as a trading nation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, I think I see the glimmerings of a recognition of this problem through the suggestion leaked from the Government last week that VAT should be applied to housing. This is the sort of fiscal measure that should be used instead of raising interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Much of what I wished to cover has been said already; it would be tedious to repeat it. In conclusion, I believe that there are a number of areas of unfinished business by our committee, not least the current relationship between the application of fiscal and monetary management and whether there are better ways of achieving the desired ends by other means.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It was indeed a signal honour to work with my companions on the committee under the clear eyed leadership of our chairman. But the task is only half fulfilled. Meanwhile, the apparent advantages of the current relationship between the Chancellor and the Bank of England remain unproven. We have yet to see how two captains on the same bridge can cope in a storm.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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  7.4 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-hugh-trenchard' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-hugh-trenchard" title="Mr Hugh Trenchard"&gt;Viscount Trenchard&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I should like to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Peston, on introducing the debate. I should also like to congratulate him and all the other noble Lords who served on his Select Committee on all their hard work in producing this interesting and useful report.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government's decision to give the Bank of England operational independence for monetary policy had not been widely anticipated. The Labour Party's manifesto said that they would reform the Bank of England to ensure that decision making on monetary policy was more effective, open, accountable and free from short-term political
      
      manipulation. On the specific question of independence, they said that they would consider the matter once the Bank had demonstrated a successful track record in its advice and had built public credibility. They considered the matter rather quickly. The right honourable gentleman the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced his decision only five days after the election. Therefore there was no time for proper consultation and, as a result, he did not get it quite right.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In principle, independence for the Bank of England was a sensible move. Perhaps one of the reasons why the Government decided to move so fast was that they wanted quickly to establish their credentials with the City and give the impression of pursuing sound economic and monetary policies. Having successfully established their credentials, it was of course easier for them to introduce stealth taxes, such as the unjustified, unwarranted and unfair raid on pension funds, which is already yielding some &amp;#x00A3;5 billion per year to the Chancellor's war chest.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As your Lordships are aware, the Government are developing a reputation for saying one thing and doing another. They said they would reform your Lordships' House to make it more democratic; they said they valued the independent element of the House. Without doing anything to make it democratic, they are decimating its independent element and neutralising the only effective check and balance which has&amp;#x2014;until now&amp;#x2014;restrained the power of the Executive in this country.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Government said that they would reduce taxes, but they have increased them. Worse, even after they have increased taxes, they still pretend that they have reduced them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I can understand that, if you think that the Bank of England's functions are likely to be subsumed into the European Central Bank in the relatively near future, it may not matter much if the system is less than perfect. But if you believe that the Bank of England will continue to have responsibility for monetary policy in the United Kingdom, then it is essential to get it right. Perhaps it is more than mere coincidence that the Chancellor's letter to the governor in May 1997&amp;#x2014;which was referred to in the report and by my noble friend Lord Saatchi today&amp;#x2014;used very similar wording to that used in the Maastricht Treaty.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The decision to include four external or independent members among the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee was basically a good one. But the fact that they are appointed by the Chancellor and serve for a term of only three years, calls into question the extent to which they can be considered independent. I strongly agree with those noble Lords who have suggested that their term should be at least five years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I also question the extent to which Article 107 of the Maastricht Treaty&amp;#x2014;which provides that, &lt;span class="italic"&gt;inter alia,&lt;/span&gt;
      
      &lt;q&gt;governments of the Member States undertake &amp;#x2026; not to seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the ECB
      
      
      or of the national central banks in the performance of their tasks"&amp;#x2014;&lt;/q&gt;
      is consistent either with the Chancellor's letter or, indeed, with the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt;, both of which require the Monetary Policy Committee to support the Government's economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The Select Committee's report rightly draws attention to the paradox that the only full-time members of the MPC are the outsiders. Only one of the four external members&amp;#x2014;Professor Goodhart&amp;#x2014;has an outside job. He works for the Bank on two days a week. Since the other external members are paid to work for five days a week, why are they not given other jobs to do within the Bank of England?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Alternatively, why do they not take outside positions as has Professor Goodhart? Surely the point of having so-called "external members" is that, in forming their views on how the MPC should pursue its objectives, they should be able to rely on their diverse experience and their knowledge and understanding of the circumstances prevailing in various sectors of the economy. The noble Lord, Lord Peston, said that he thought the membership of the MPC might be biased too much in a southerly direction. I believe geography is perhaps less important than breadth of experience in that regard.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I agree very much with the words of the noble Lord, Lord Burns, and my noble friends Lady O'Cathain and Lady Hogg on that point. The four external members of the MPC are either academics or economists, or both. I do not understand why the Chancellor did not choose someone from manufacturing industry or commerce who would have brought valuable experience and a different viewpoint to the MPC's deliberations. While I understand that it would be difficult to be both a member of the MPC and a director of a financial institution, I believe that the conflict of interests for an external member who might also hold a senior position in a non-financial organisation is not so serious and has possibly been exaggerated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is regrettable that recently a dispute has arisen between the external and internal members over the inadequate support and restricted access to research and analytical staff provided for the former. Noble Lords will have seen Martin Wolf's excellent article in last Monday's &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Financial Times&lt;/span&gt; in which he quoted from the Chancellor's Mais lecture of 19th October:
      &lt;q&gt;The discretion necessary for effective economic policy is possible only within a framework that commands market credibility and public trust".&lt;/q&gt;
      Of course with any new system there may be teething problems. Can the Minister explain what action the Government will take to improve the imperfections inherent in a system which was prepared too hastily and without adequate forethought? I hope that he will agree that some action is absolutely necessary in order to restore full confidence in the Bank. The noble Lord, Lord Peston, said that he did not think the system needed changing immediately, but that, if it did need to be changed in the future, changes should be made. Unfortunately it is already clear that something must be done sooner rather than later.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      The Bank of England is perhaps not yet quite as independent as the Government say. Seven of the nine members of the MPC are chosen by, or on the advice of, the Chancellor. The MPC is not properly accountable to Parliament in the same way as is the Federal Reserve to Congress in the United States.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      We should also question the quality of information made available to the members of the MPC. Co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy is clearly of the utmost importance, especially since they are now the responsibilities of two different bodies. My noble friend Lord Weir emphasised very clearly the need for such co-ordination. The Select Committee recommended that the Court of Directors should play a stronger role in connection with the quality of data made available to the MPC. However, doubts about the quality of data help to explain the unhappiness of the external members at their lack of involvement in the determination of what material should be prepared, and on what basis. The external members are all experts and can see through the Government's fallacious claims that taxes are going down when they are in fact going up. Against that background, no doubt noble Lords will be looking forward with interest to the publication of the minutes of today's meeting of the MPC, at which the decision was taken to raise interest rates by one-quarter of 1 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Noble Lords will be aware that my right honourable friend Mr Francis Maude has set up a commission to establish the relationships between Government, Parliament and the MPC. I trust that the commission will also have an opportunity to examine the role of the Bank's Court of Directors, especially as the Bank has lost its regulatory responsibilities to the Financial Services Authority.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall not detain your Lordships by repeating any more of the many other excellent points made in the debate by other noble Lords. However, I wish to congratulate the noble Lords, Lord Londesborough, Lord Lipsey, Lord Goldsmith and Lord Woolmer, on their excellent maiden speeches. I regret that it is unlikely that your Lordships' House will hear again, at least in the short term, from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough. His experience and the potential contribution he could make are typical of what has helped to make your Lordships' House independent and highly regarded both at home and abroad.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I apologise if I have disappointed the noble Lords, Lord Peston and Lord Barnett, or other noble Lords in being unable, on this particular occasion, to restrain myself from making some party political points. I much regret that in the future your Lordships' House is likely to become rather more party political than it has been in the past.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have enjoyed greatly and look forward to hearing the speeches of other noble Lords much better qualified than I to speak on this subject. I much regret that, with your Lordships' leave, I may need to withdraw before the end of the debate to attend the celebration of my brother-in-law's marriage. I offer my sincere apologies to the House if I do leave before the Minister replies. I assure him that I shall read the &lt;span class="italic"&gt;Official Report&lt;/span&gt; assiduously tomorrow morning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      It has been my great privilege to participate in today's debate, and to make what is in all probability my valedictory speech. Once again, I should like to express my appreciation to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for introducing this interesting and valuable debate.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04620'&gt;
  
  7.16 p.m.
&lt;/p&gt;

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  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_125'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-eric-roll' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-eric-roll" title="Mr Eric Roll"&gt;Lord Roll of Ipsden&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, if one has been unlucky in the draw and appears at No. 20 in a long debate, it is inevitable that you run the risk that much, if not all, of what you wish to say has already been said by others. I am afraid I must ask your Lordships to accept this state of affairs and to show your customary indulgence to the present speaker.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I begin by adding my thanks to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and congratulating him not only on initiating the debate but also on introducing it in a particularly brilliant manner. The noble Lord's speech was both concise and comprehensive, and those are not easy qualities to combine. He referred not only to the positive points listed in the report of the Select Committee but to a whole list of unfinished business and pointed to the fact that the report is only the beginning. I should like to support that view most strongly; both the noble Lord and other speakers&amp;#x2014;for example, the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky&amp;#x2014;listed a whole series of questions that will require further clarification and inquiry.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As the Monetary Policy Committee develops both in its techniques and understanding, if that is feasible, of the subject matter of monetary policy, and as outside circumstances change, there will be plenty of material for a continuing scrutiny. Towards the end of my remarks I should like to address a related subject which has not been much touched upon so far in the debate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The noble Lord, Lord Peston, deserves to be congratulated on another score. I make so bold as to say that of all the subjects in economics, the theory and practice of monetary policy has the longest and most intense history of controversy. I hope that those economists present tonight would agree with me. Certainly the present phase of monetary policy can easily be traced back to over 200 years ago in the 1796 report of the Bullion Committee and the subsequent debates that ended in the suspension of gold payments in the 19th century. Shortly thereafter came the debate between the so-called banking school and the currency school, to which that great administrator, Sir Robert Peel, temporarily put an end with the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-charter-act-1844"&gt;Bank of England Charter Act 1844&lt;/a&gt;. That Act gave the Bank of England a monopoly over note issue, at any rate in England and Wales. But the subject has continued to occupy politicians, public men of all kinds, economists and other academics right through the 19th century and through the present century.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The most recent manifestation of it&amp;#x2014;a relatively recent manifestation&amp;#x2014;was the so-called attack of the monetarists on the Keynesians, Keynesianism very often being totally misunderstood and perhaps
      
      sometimes deliberately misinterpreted. Our committee&amp;#x2014;the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and other members will perhaps agree&amp;#x2014;was certainly not free from controversy. To have managed out of this to produce a unanimous report which at the same time is not free from fairly acute debate on this or that subject is a remarkable achievement and forms a good basis for future inquiry.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I want to divide what else I have to say into two parts. I want to talk about the work of the Monetary Policy Committee and the Select Committee's report on it within what I might call the present context. I should then like to go on to other wider issues. First, the committee thoroughly approved of the Chancellor's decision, one of his earliest on taking office, to give the Bank of England operational independence. I thoroughly approve of that. Six years ago I had the privilege of chairing a committee of independent experts&amp;#x2014;former heads of Treasuries, former governors or deputy governors of central banks, both in this country and abroad, lawyers and economists, including Professor Charles Goodhart who is now a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. We came to the unanimous conclusion that this independence should be granted. Obviously, there were some slight differences in techniques, as that was six years ago, but we were all naturally very gratified when one of the first things the Chancellor did was to do precisely what we had recommended.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That decision is still misunderstood outside a relatively narrow circle of people who are preoccupied with these matters. Very often one hears the criticism&amp;#x2014;how appalling it is that a matter of this importance, which affects the livelihoods and existence of everyone in this country, should have been handed over to an unelected body. That is total nonsense. The Chancellor of the Exchequer still has ultimate responsibility, as do the Government as a whole, to Parliament, to the public and to the electorate for economic management, including monetary management. The operational independence of the Bank of England is strictly circumscribed in the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt; and in the fact that the Chancellor sets the inflation target. He is very keen, as we all know, on the symmetry of the 2&amp;#x00BD; per cent&amp;#x2014;1 per cent up or 1 per cent down&amp;#x2014;and so on. He appoints the independent members of the committee. So we can take that for granted.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, there remains the very different question, which has been frequently referred to in this debate, about the famous "subject to". That is terrible drafting. I agree profoundly with those noble Lords, including particularly the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, who raised this point many times in the committee, who believe that that is very unfortunate. It quite deliberately sets up the possibility of a conflict between monetary policy and economic management that is generally designed to produce growth and employment. There may be such a conflict, but if there is, that has to be resolved precisely by, in the end, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Deliberately to set this out is to my mind a grave error. In fact many critics of the present situation would argue that it should be
      
      
      precisely the other way round. It should be that monetary management should be designed to support the broader economic objectives of the Government and only subject to that to aim at price stability. I would not advocate that particularly but that would be to many people a much more sensible way of putting it. So that is another subject which sooner or later will have to be resolved. It may even require a change in legislation as it is enshrined in the &lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/acts/bank-of-england-act-1946"&gt;Bank of England Act&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Of the many other subjects that have been listed, including by the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, by the noble Lord, Lord Peston, himself, and others, I want to refer particularly to the question of the membership of the Monetary Policy Committee. That has often been criticised because it contains too many economists. Indeed, six out of nine are economists&amp;#x2014;four independent members, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, who is a very distinguished economist, and the chief economist of the Bank itself. Is six out of nine too many? I have no objection to economists as such&amp;#x2014;some of my best friends are economists&amp;#x2014;but there is something to this argument. I say that because, unfortunately&amp;#x2014;I have never quite understood why in all the years I have been thinking about this&amp;#x2014;economists are more prone than most people to develop a high-tensioned self-consciousness about their views and to indulge in intensive and sometimes very aggressive controversy with each other. I am not saying for a moment that that "proneness" has shown itself in the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Committee but it is inherent somehow or other in economists.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Much has been said about the possible reform of the membership, particularly by the noble Baronesses, Lady O'Cathain and Lady Hogg, by the noble Lord, Lord Goldsmith, in a remarkable maiden speech, and by the noble Lord, Lord Burns. I very much agree with what has been said and with what the committee recommended about greater openness of these appointments. Having listened to the debate and having reflected on the deliberations of our committee, it suddenly struck me that, leaving aside the fact that it is a House of Lords committee and therefore consists of Peers, male and female, the committee is a remarkable collection of people of all kinds of provenance and experience&amp;#x2014;from business, the noble Viscount, Lord Weir, the noble Lord, Lord Paul, and several other noble Lords; the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, with his experience of government; the noble Lord, Lord Burns, the noble Lord, Lord Peston, and I, economists by origin but with experience in public affairs, and so on.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If it is possible to set up a committee of that kind, which has shown itself capable of thorough, objective and detailed study at a high intellectual level and without any trace of partisanship&amp;#x2014;certainly nothing very obvious&amp;#x2014;why cannot that be done for the Monetary Policy Committee itself? Surely it is not necessary to restrict it to the present pattern of five people from the hierarchy of the Bank of England, including two economists, and four outside academic economists. Why does it have to be so? I hope that that
      
      subject will be discussed in future and I hope that the Select Committee will have that as one of its subjects for scrutiny.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Having said that, I should like to come to a wider issue. There is a small cloud on the distant horizon. It was referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Howell&amp;#x2014;outside the Chamber I would certainly refer to him as my noble friend&amp;#x2014; in a very remarkable and thoughtful speech. I refer to the changes that are taking place in the financial environment with which the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England and the Select Committee have to deal. It has been known for quite some time that the recourse to direct financing, particularly in the capital market, and the increasingly sophisticated devices of the capital market have bypassed the banking system and have considerably changed the total monetary environment and the ability to control it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That tendency has been brought to the fore recently, since we prepared our report, by the work of Professor Ben Friedman, of Harvard, whose work was brought to wider notice in one of Sam Brittan's particularly thoughtful articles a short while ago entitled, "The End of Money". I had the opportunity less than two months ago at Harvard to have a long discussion with Professor Friedman. He has drawn attention not only to the points to which the noble Lord, Lord Howell, referred&amp;#x2014;namely, the growth of credit cards, bank cards, smart cards and so forth&amp;#x2014;but also to the growth in mergers: the creation of large units with many subsidiaries, which inevitably settle their liabilities among themselves. The increasing integration of the world economy has created a high degree of direct clearing which totally by-passes the banking system. That has led Professor Friedman, perhaps in a moment of exuberance, to speak of the end of monetary policy. Sam Brittan certainly referred in his article to the end of monetary policy, and the noble Lord, Lord Howell, hinted at that. However distant that time may be&amp;#x2014;it may be 10 years or more&amp;#x2014;if that tendency continues, and there is no reason whatever to think that it will not, the facts, circumstances, institutions, monetary policy, control agency, whatever the institution may be, with which the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England or any other central bank has to deal will change profoundly. That will greatly change the possibility of monetary control and the prospects of its having any effect, which is already under some doubt, as a number of speakers have pointed out.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      As I say, that is a distant cloud. But even today we must recognise that monetary management is a many-splendoured thing. What is happening here is very different from what is happening in the United States with the Fed. It is not only the old, somewhat scholastic argument between monetary supply targeting or inflation targeting. There is very little in that any more. If one reads the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee, one sees that it has increasingly enlarged the scope of the circumstances that it takes into account. That is very much to the committee's credit. But in the United States the oracular pronouncements of Alan Greenspan have an
      
      
      immediate effect, whichever way it may turn out to be, on stock markets. In the United States, investors and speculators have long since ceased to be interested in income. They are interested only in capital appreciation and in the growth of assets. They are immediately affected, not necessarily by the fact of interest rate changes but by the expectation and the psychology created by them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have just returned from a brief visit to Japan. The situation there is totally different. Short-term interest rates practically do not exist. In many respects the system is awash with money. If the Japanese policy were to be applied in our country now, or even in circumstances when the economy was not quite so buoyant as it appears to be now, there would almost immediately be raging inflation. Yet in Japan the old adage applies: "You can take a horse to water, but you cannot necessarily make him drink". That is what is delaying the recovery of the Japanese economy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I want to indicate, including reference to the more distant possibilities, that it is absolutely essential that this subject should not be regarded as closed; that the MPC should carry on just as it is doing now; and that there should be no further scrutiny, except possibly from time to time by the House of Commons Select Committee on the Treasury and the Civil Service to which the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, has referred.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I conclude by strongly supporting the idea that the Select Committee should continue in one form or another, and that it should continue to scrutinise this subject.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04622'&gt;
  
  7.34 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-mackintoch' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-john-mackintoch" title="Mr John Mackintoch"&gt;Viscount Mackintosh of Halifax&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, this has been an extremely interesting debate. At this hour, and after so much has already been said, I do not intend to detain your Lordships for long. I join with other noble Lords, in thanking the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for introducing the debate. I congratulate him and all the members of his committee on producing such an excellent report. It is well-constructed, and it produces a good analysis of the operation of the Monetary Policy Committee. It examines how the committee conducts itself and relationships between the committee and related bodies and addresses the problems faced by the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like also to congratulate the four noble Lords who have made their maiden speech this afternoon. They have made a most important contribution to the debate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I want to focus on one of the first conclusions set out in the report; namely, that,
      &lt;q&gt;The Government was right to give operational independence for monetary policy to the Bank of England".&lt;/q&gt;
      I have not yet reached that conclusion. I still have an open mind as to whether such a move was right. There is little dispute that a low and stable inflation rate is good for the economy. However, there is less
      
      agreement on how to achieve low inflation. As the report states,
      &lt;q&gt;high and uncertain inflation makes it more difficult for individuals and organisations to make correct economic decisions".&lt;/q&gt;
      Thus, it is generally harmful to the economy. Low inflation means that investors can plan for the future with confidence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The report states also that,
      &lt;q&gt;there is little clear economic evidence that mild inflation is very harmful".&lt;/q&gt;
      But when does mild inflation become high inflation? Whatever the evidence about mild inflation, the economic objective of successive governments has been to achieve low and stable inflation. Establishing the Monetary Policy Committee and giving it operational independence for setting interest rates was carried out with a view to helping achieve low and stable inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, it is clearly possible to have a successful anti-inflationary policy without the imposition of an independent central bank. Before the last election, the then Chancellor, Ken Clarke, kept inflation below 4 per cent for four years&amp;#x2014;the longest period of low inflation for nearly 50 years. That was achieved without an independent central bank.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Also, if it is felt that an independent central bank is the right way to control inflation, does the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England as constructed actually fill the role of an independent central bank? As many noble Lords have pointed out, members of the Monetary Policy Committee are mostly appointed by the Government for a very short period. In Germany, Central Bank members are appointed for eight years and Federal Reserve governors in the US are appointed for 15 years. The Monetary Policy Committee members have only a three-year term. Of the nine members of the committee, seven are chosen directly by or on the advice of the Chancellor. Is that really independence? It is certainly very different from what happens in other countries, such as the US. We seem to have moved to a halfway house where a Chancellor can stand back if things go wrong and say that the Monetary Policy Committee has operational independence but can claim credit when things go well because of his influence over the committee. If an independent bank is needed, should it not be truly independent? I agree with several speakers who have advocated a longer period for the members to serve and a move towards greater independence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If we are to have any form of independent central bank, it is important that it is democratically accountable. Again in comparison with the United States, the Monetary Policy Committee is not as accountable to Parliament as the Federal Reserve is to Congress. The report concludes that the Monetary Policy Committee must make its decision procedure clearer so as to aid public scrutiny; and also that appointments of the independent members must be made in a more open fashion. We may need to go further in attempting to establish greater accountability to Parliament.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      That is less of an issue if interest rates are stable or falling, because there is less public interest in how those rates are set. However, in times when interest rates are rising, there will be much more interest in how the level of interest rates are reached and whether the level is appropriate. There will be much greater focus on the Monetary Policy Committee. The level of interest rates has a great impact on the lives of many people and, when interest rates are rising, there needs to be public confidence that the person or organisation which is setting the level of interest rates is properly accounted for.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      If one believes in a truly independent central bank, having the Monetary Policy Committee properly accountable to Parliament will be very helpful in protecting it from pressure and intervention from the government of the day.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Since the formation of the Monetary Policy Committee, there has been low and stable inflation in this country. However, we cannot conclude from that that the establishment of this committee was responsible for this favourable situation. What would have happened without the Monetary Policy Committee? The Monetary Policy Committee inherited low and stable inflation from the last government and world inflationary conditions have been low and stable since its inception. There have been no major short term inflationary shocks with which it had to deal. We will not really be able to tell how effective the Monetary Policy Committee is until we have a real inflationary test.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It has often been said that independent central banks in, for example, America and Germany have been responsible for the relatively low inflation in those countries over the long term and therefore cited this as a reason for why we should move to an independent central bank in this country. However, it could be that those countries which have a natural tendency to low inflation as a result of other aspects in their economy are those economies which can accommodate an independent central bank. Countries which have a tendency for higher inflation may find operating with an independent central bank more difficult.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In conclusion, I still have an open mind as to whether it was right to give operational independence for monetary policy to the Bank of England. I believe that we need more time to judge and, in particular, to see how the Monetary Policy Committee operates in periods of inflationary pressure before a definitive conclusion can be reached.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;

&lt;span class='time published'&gt;&lt;a href="#1999-11-04T19:43:00Z" name="1999-11-04T19:43:00Z"&gt;&lt;abbr class="dtstart" title="1999-11-04T19:43:00Z"&gt;7.43 pm&lt;/abbr&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;

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  &lt;blockquote class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title unmatched-member'&gt;Viscount Eccles&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I too welcome the committee's report. I support the idea that the committee continues and will suggest an agenda around the measurement of inflation which the noble Lord, Lord Peston, raised as a matter of concern. It was also raised by my noble friends Lord Howell and Lord Vinson. While the prospects of the RPIX are central to the Monetary Policy Committee's decision, nevertheless the Office for National Statistics stated in
      
      its evidence to the committee that the retail prices index is more widely needed than just as a measure of inflation, vital as that is.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is needed:
      &lt;q&gt;for increases to social security benefits and state pensions, for national savings and index linked gilts, for wage bargaining and for price adjusted contracts and the prices charged by utilities,&lt;/q&gt;
      and, I would add, the Inland Revenue regime for private sector defined benefit pension schemes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The retail prices index is therefore of vital interest to everyone in the land. The office also said in evidence:
      &lt;q&gt;No single measure of inflation can meet all users' needs".&lt;/q&gt;
      I am left wondering exactly what is meant; but what is certain is that we need the retail prices index and its calculation to be a matter of trust and unshakeable public confidence. A single consistent measure which gains continuing public acceptance is highly desirable. Maybe this is what we enjoy now, although the Select Committee has expressed its doubts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In the pursuit of trust and consistency, there are two quite separate aspects within the retail prices index methodology. The first is process, consisting of the collection of data by accurate sampling and then the statistical approach to that data. These mathematical procedures can be tested by peer group analysis and by comparison with other leading statistical practitioners. The professional areas of judgment are circumscribed by acceptable mathematical limits. Although this issue took up part of the time spent by the committee and the office, it does not need to detain us long.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The second set of issues poses much greater problems of consistency and judgment. To begin with, 4 per cent of the population, those with the highest incomes, are excluded from the sampling, as are those who live mainly on the state pension, although not those who live mainly on state benefits. Here choice is being exercised in the search for typical patterns of expenditure. We are entering the real world but exercising qualitative and not entirely unpolitical judgment. Not a statistician's function I would suggest. Indeed, this is the Chancellor of the Exchequer's province as was stated in response to the Commons Treasury sub-committee which reported on the Office for National Statistics in December last year. Recommendation M of that report stated,
      &lt;q&gt;We recommend that the provision in the framework document for the Chancellor to decide 'the scope and definition of the retail prices index' be deleted.&lt;/q&gt;
      The Government's response to this recommendation was that,
      &lt;q&gt;the RPI is an indicator of the utmost economic importance which is used for many different purposes. As a reflection of its special importance to the UK economy and in line with long-standing arrangements, the scope and definition of the RPI has remained under the ultimate authority of the Chancellor. Under these arrangements, the Chancellor of the Exchequer is directly accountable to Parliament and the public for any decisions that are taken on the scope and definition of the RPI. The Government intends to continue with these arrangements.&lt;/q&gt;
      
      
      Do I detect a hint of both poacher and gamekeeper?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The very next House of Commons recommendation ended by saying:
      &lt;q&gt;Ensuring that the head"&amp;#x2014;&lt;/q&gt;
      of the Office of National Statistics&amp;#x2014;
      &lt;q&gt;has the required freedom from political interference".&lt;/q&gt;
      While it would be wrong to claim that the Chancellor sets both the 2.5 per cent inflation target and, to a considerable extent, influences the outcome of the RPIX, it is clear that he has some of the problems identified by your Lordships' committee on his mind. He made reference to issues of scope and definition in his evidence to the committee, a reference which was not followed up at the time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What are these issues? Academic work principally in the United States has identified a number of issues of which four are of the greatest importance in the rapidly evolving economic and social scene of today. They all influence choice and consumers' behaviour.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The first is product substitution. An example would be switching between gas and electricity and perhaps back again. The second is change of shopping outlet. An example would be moving from a department store to a discounter. The third is quality changes. Are the batteries of today (hearing aid batteries perhaps) easily compared with those of yesterday? The fourth is new goods and services, as with personal computers and internet services. All these will affect accurate real life sampling and the weightings within any index.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      A somewhat more detailed comment on clothing, an industry in which I am involved, is relevant. Consumers' spending on clothing as a percentage of their total spending has been falling for some years, thus affecting weightings used in the retail prices index. Clothing prices have been falling in both real and recently in nominal terms with discounters gaining share. The introduction of Lycra, an elastomeric fibre, has brought easier care and sometimes longer life&amp;#x2014;a quality change. Lifestyle changes are taking the industry rapidly away from formal wear towards a more casual style of dressing with new products.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In response to all this rapid change, we may do well to avoid arguments about whether one index would be better than another or whether one statistical approach is marginally to be preferred to another, and instead to concentrate on the real world of the cost of living as experienced by household managers. The response of the Office for National Statistics, whether in Select Committee or in publications, seems somewhat muted. Perhaps it is all too aware of the limitations imposed on its study on the scope and definition of the retail prices index; yet without professional freedom and independent advice, it must be doubtful whether public confidence will be maintained. There is an available source of independent advice&amp;#x2014;the RPI advisory committee&amp;#x2014;but the Government do not seem keen to use it. It is likely that the conclusion reached by your Lordships'
      
      committee points the way forward. In its conclusions, it states:
      &lt;q&gt;The Office for National Statistics needs to play a more active role in dealing with all the problems that have emerged in connection with the measurement of inflation".&lt;/q&gt;
      The committee, if renewed, may find the Chancellor of the Exchequer barring its way, but I shall wish it every good fortune in its endeavour to cast more light on the index and its calculation.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04626'&gt;
  
  7.50 p.m.
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  &lt;a name='S5LV0606P0_19991104_HOL_131'&gt;  &lt;/a&gt;
  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-currie' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-david-currie" title="Mr David Currie"&gt;Lord Currie of Marylebone&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, I start by thanking my noble friend Lord Peston for his committee's crucial and insightful report. I owe my noble friend a considerable debt because he appointed me to my first academic job more than 25 years ago. He may have regretted it when he discovered that two years in the City did not mean that I knew monetary economics, which he wanted me to teach to his Masters students. It was at the height of the Barber boom and I do not think that my noble friend had a lot of choice about who to appoint. Nonetheless, he may have regretted it. I discovered that my noble friend is a fast teacher, if I may put it that way. Indeed, looking at the minutes of the evidence, it appears that members of his committee may also have discovered that. I learnt quickly many of the elements of macro-economics. Indeed, not only does the report demonstrate my noble friend's insights, but also the possibility of life-long learning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I remember my noble friend teaching me two big lessons, which I think are relevant to this debate. The first is that the uncertainty about the economy and our understanding of how economies work means that there are strict limits about what macro-economic policy and monetary policy in particular can achieve. One cannot fine-tune economies. The points made on that by, among others, the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, were well made. We should not overestimate what we can expect from monetary policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The second lesson is also worth bearing in mind. It is that there are good, robust monetary and macro-economic policies&amp;#x2014;and there are bad ones, and we must ensure that the institutions that we put in place are good ones which are robust in the face of this uncertainty. If we doubt that proposition, we need only consider the past history of our economy: three major booms followed by three major recessions, all as a result of the poor conduct of monetary and macroeconomic policy. Indeed, we need only look at Japan, which has suffered the effects of poor policies in the past and, I believe, at the present.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Perhaps I may present the lesson by way of an analogy. In stormy weather, it is certainly not possible to steer a straight and smooth course, but we can clearly distinguish between good and bad helming, particularly in bad weather, and especially if the bad helming leads to the boat going out of control. Let us not expect too much of our monetary institutions, but also let us not underestimate the major contributions that have been made. I believe that the independence
      
      
      of the Bank is a thoroughly good move that takes us in the direction of robust, sound institutions that will serve the economy well in the future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I shall not detain your Lordships long with a consideration of the technical criticisms that have been made. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has been mentioned. It said that the Monetary Policy Committee would have done better to leave interest rates unchanged. I caution that such a conclusion is extremely difficult to draw from the types of analysis carried out on the large macro-econometric models on which some of our policy experts work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Equally, a report from the London Business School argued that the present arrangements were subject to failures of co-ordination between monetary and fiscal policy. I think that that report was deficient because it did not distinguish between independence of targets and independence of instruments. Some references have been made to that tonight. In particular, I do not think that the co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy is an issue. There are plenty of mechanisms for ensuring that the monetary authorities are well informed about the Government's fiscal plans to ensure that there is co-ordination in appropriate circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The key point is that if fiscal policy is inappropriate or wrong-headed, we do not want to have monetary and fiscal policy co-ordinated; precisely the opposite. One thinks of the experience of Germany. On a number of occasions, through its monetary actions the Bundesbank was able to forestall ill considered actions by the government which would otherwise have lead the economy into difficulty. In the early 1980s when President Reagan expanded the federal deficit considerably, would it have been better if Volcker had gone along with that by not raising interest rates? I do not think so. The US economy would have suffered major inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The argument for Bank independence is not the co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy; it is to ensure that when a Chancellor has wrong-headed policies, the effects are not as damaging. In the past, it has been dangerous when a Chancellor has gone hell for leather for macro-economic expansion. It is rather like a modern-day Mr Toad driving a twin-engine Ferrari with both feet firmly down on both accelerators, the monetary accelerator and the fiscal accelerator. In those circumstances, we want monetary and fiscal policies to pull in different directions. If we had had that in the past, I do not believe that we would have had the volatility that we have had in the British economy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to touch briefly on the question of the independent members of the Bank, to which a number of noble Lords have referred. The model of the corporate board is the right way to think of the Monetary Policy Committee. In parenthesis, perhaps I may mention that the energy regulator is moving the model of regulation in that area in that direction&amp;#x2014;to good effect, I think. If one thinks of a corporate board, one should think of the independents as the equivalent of non-executive directors. Therefore, in my view, it is
      
      desirable that their positions should be part-time. The dangers of them being full-time are considerable: they will become incorporated into the Bank; they will not express an independent position or bring with them the breadth of view that a genuinely outside member would have.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I strongly urge against the option of allowing the independent members to start engaging in major research. That is for the simple reason that in my experience the best researchers are zealots who really believe in what they find and who pursue ideas obsessively. Those are all admirable characteristics in researchers, but they do not sit comfortably with the broader perspective that we need for the Monetary Policy Committee which needs to step back, weigh and assess a broad body of analysis and information. That is not always the characteristic of the effective researcher.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is another danger in having full-time appointments: we would confine selection to the body of academic economists. Of course, as your Lordships will infer, I have nothing against academic economists, but I do not think that we should have only those. One extra difficulty will arise that has not been referred to in the debate so far. If we confine the choice to academic economists, inevitably we shall reproduce on the Monetary Policy Committee the present severe gender imbalance in the economics profession at senior level that is of such concern to the Royal Economic Society and others. It may be dangerous to quote what the French do as an exemplar. However, they are able to bring in experts from industry and commerce.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I agree with my noble friend Lord Goldsmith in his excellent maiden speech that we are overstating the conflicts of interest in this matter. We should be able to find distinguished individuals who can put aside their business interests in setting interest rates in the national interest and maintain Chinese walls when they go back to their commercial work. That should be feasible, and it is the way forward. It is dangerous to follow the route of full-time appointments. I suspect that the argument about resources flagged up in the press is less an issue of efficiency of resources and more an issue of excess time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      This report is a valuable contribution to the debate. I am sure that many will continue to use it in years to come. Yesterday, it was suggested that perhaps we should devise a way in which the fruits of these reports can find a more popular outlet to inform the public so that they can be debated more widely than at the moment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I wish the Monetary Policy Committee and your Lordships' committee well. I hope that both will have a long life. However, I should like to see the UK join the euro in a timely way and, if that happens, both committees will lose many of their current functions. I urge your Lordships' House to accept the recommendation that this committee might be established on a semi-permanent basis.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04628'&gt;
  
  8.2 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-malcolm-mitchell-thomson' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-malcolm-mitchell-thomson" title="Mr Malcolm Mitchell-Thomson"&gt;Lord Selsdon&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a remarkable privilege to be able to listen to your Lordships today. In these debates I feel that I am a perpetual student. Today, we have 10 eminent professors well briefed in economics and all in agreement, which is extraordinary. There are four visiting professors, or new professors, one of whom is perhaps on a short stay. They have made remarkable contributions which in the past hours have made me think a good deal.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I have read many reports like this one. I believe that I can understand these reports. However, page 57 of this report gave me hiccups. I could not understand the Egyptian hieroglyphs. Since I did not understand even half of them, perhaps some in the outside world would understand none. I then realised that what we had among us was a group of amateur head-hunters who felt that somehow they could select the right people to make monumental decisions far too often and without much basis.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One of my old friends, who was also a head hunter, said that to get something done three types of people were required: a trapper, a skinner and a cook. No individual can be all three; some can be two, but one must always have an economist to do the washing up. The economist thinks he knows what he will have to wash up, but more often than not he gets it wrong.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      At the beginning of my remarks I want to go back 50 years, and at the end perhaps I shall go forward 50 years. Just over 50 years ago I had my first lesson in economics without knowing it. I had been given a Welsh pony by my mother which, to the knowledge of everyone but me, had never been broken in. I was told that I had to ride it, come hell or high water. I jumped off and hid round a corner. One day my great uncle Sir Stafford Cripps, who came to stay regularly, asked me, "Do you have a problem, young Malcolm?" I said, "No, uncle Stafford; the horse has a problem". He took me on the leading rein and the pony was calm. He explained to me what he had done. He used to dress up as Father Christmas, sometimes at No. 11 Downing Street, and invite all the family. I was very fond of him. He explained to me that there had been a war and in order to pay for it lots of pounds had to be used, which meant that the pound had to be devalued. That was my first introduction to the importance of the exchange rate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Later, I found myself working in Germany. I recall that then there were over 11 deutschmarks to the pound, 17 French francs to the pound and 17 Swiss francs to the pound. A great Swiss friend recently celebrated his 40th wedding anniversary. He is married to a lovely girl from Leeds. To digress, it costs more to travel to Leeds to watch a football match and return to London than to travel to the south of France and back. I cannot work that out. I digress again. We have North Sea oil but we have the most expensive petrol in the world with tax and the cheapest without it. It makes me wonder whether there are some tax increases of which I am not aware. My Swiss friend said that when he first married his lovely English bride there were
      
      17 Swiss francs to the pound but after 40 years the pound had been devalued by 90 per cent and his only comfort was that his wife had increased by 40 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      These matters are now past concerns. We do not have to worry about the exchange rate. One wonders why in the past we worried so much about sterling being a reserve currency. Many of us learnt that the last thing in the world we wanted was for the pound to be a reserve currency.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Interesting changes have taken place. I turn to the euro. I am amazed how, in a relatively short period, the euro has managed to develop on the Continent. I chair a very small bank in eastern Europe which does almost everything in euros. In general, we regard one dollar as one euro in round terms. The euro seems to be taking over as somebody else's reserve currency. There is stability in currencies, which means that the exchange rate does not seem to matter any more.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      One turns to what might be described as the great decimator. A decimator was someone who took things away from you, but not every tenth like the taxman who took the tithes. I have always regarded someone who takes things away from you as a decimator. There were three types of decimator within the control of government. The worst one, which took away the greatest amount for a long period, was inflation. That now seems to be under control. The second, which effectively destroyed all initiative, was legislation and bureaucracy. One was not allowed to do the things one wanted. The third one was taxation itself. I have worries about the last one. There is no doubt that the level of taxation imposed on our people, whether by stealth or openly, is greater than it should be.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      But when the decimator takes things away he creates a bit of deflation. It is not inflationary to take things away from people. Originally, government could tax, spend and legislate. It was possibly privatisation that effectively reduced the ability of government to spend too much. Therefore, we do not have inflation or a problem with exchange rates. However, we have a worry about too much growth in taxation, but in itself that is not a problem.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not understand why, when we have a stable situation, interest rates are put up today. We have put them up by 25 points and the European Central Bank has put them up by 50 points. The difference between the two is 150. That does not seem to be related to the differences between the economies, exchange rates or anything else. But in the back of my mind there is a hidden factor that I do not fully understand and believe that I shall never fully understand. It is: where is the money in the world and what is money? I was once told by many friends in eastern Europe that when, I think, Anthony Barber floated our currency the objective was to destroy socialist economies because they depend upon fixed parities. I have heard again and again that that was a clever Conservative plot.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, the shift in parities between eastern and western Europe is interesting and one may ask why. If one takes all the countries in that quarter of the world, moving on into Asia, and realise that anything with
      
      
      "AN" in it is Islamic and that two-thirds or three-quarters of the world's oil and mineral resources are there, one realises that there was wealth. Where did it go? Some people have said that it went into a laundry and that it came out into the banking system as laundered money. But it came in and of that there is no doubt. We in the West have large quantities of other people's money and to a large extent it is influenced by the differential in exchange rates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is not necessarily hot money, but it is money which moves about. It comes into a bank and is placed on deposit, for example. Against that, a loan is taken out and it is lent back to the countries in eastern Europe at 20 or 25 per cent because no one is interested in investing when there is exchange risk.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I cannot say what will happen next, but having gone back 50 years and said to myself that the exchange rate does not matter any more and that taxation and inflation are reasonably all right, I wonder why we spend our time tinkering around too much with interest rates. I sit down with a paraphrase of the old Heinrich Heine saying that when the world is coming to an end try to become an economist because everything happens 50 years later.
    &lt;/p&gt;
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  8.11 p.m.
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&lt;div class='hentry member_contribution' id='S5LV0606P0-04631'&gt;
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-thomas-lyttelton' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-thomas-lyttelton" title="Mr Thomas Lyttelton"&gt;Viscount Chandos&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, the contributions today from all sides of the House have generally comprised an exceptional combination of quality and, considering the many issues raised by the report, brevity. As the penultimate speaker from the Back Benches, I shall do my best at least to maintain the latter virtue and detain your Lordships, and in particular my noble friend the Minister, for as short a time as possible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I warmly welcome the report of the Select Committee, chaired by my noble friend Lord Peston, and, like other noble Lords, believe that it will become both a standard text for his fellow members of the academic community and essential reading for practising businessmen, politicians and people from every walk of life for whom, as my noble friend Lord Goldsmith said in his excellent maiden speech, the achievement of consistent, stable and non-inflationary growth is literally a vital issue.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In mentioning one maiden speaker, it would be invidious not to say that both my other maiden noble friends and the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, were in no way overshadowed: truly an Amadeus quartet of maiden speakers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Just as I welcome this report and the debate which it has stimulated, so I warmly welcome the decision of my right honourable friend the Chancellor to grant independence in this respect to the Bank of England and the consequent establishment of the MPC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I am not sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, introduced a little party political edge to his remarks, because, unlike my noble friend Lord Peston, I am not myself good at remaining unpartisan for very long.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      On the other hand, I am sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, felt aggrieved that the Labour Party
      
      manifesto had not been totally explicit about the intention to grant independence to the Bank of England in respect of monetary policy. As the noble Viscount said, what was included flagged the principle as clearly as even the raising of the Governor's eyebrows. I realise, of course, that in the vaults of Smith Square is the video, "Setting Free the Bank"; the party political broadcast that the Conservatives dared not show. I am sure that history might have been quite different.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I believe that our experience during the past two and a half years, with all the caveats of it being early days, is a vindication of the decisive action of my right honourable friend the Chancellor. Of course, thankfully, the new arrangement has not been subjected to any significant supply-side shock. But the economic legacy from the previous government was not by any means as golden as the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, and his colleagues have claimed&amp;#x2014;something which my noble friend Lord Desai cogently expounded in his evidence to the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The MPC can take credit for the soft landing of the economy achieved from the hot-air balloon fuelled by the previous Government's pre-election stoking of demand. Without being complacent about the formidable burden of the high exchange rate faced by all companies competing at home and in export markets with overseas-based rivals, unlike my noble friend Lord Desai, I am not sure that a much better balance of fiscal and monetary policy could have been effected.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      A number of noble Lords drew the comparison between the frequency of interest rate changes in the UK during this period and those which applied in the USA and Germany of the euro zone. I do not believe that it is unreasonable to make some allowance for the MPC finding its feet; a newly qualified driver may correct a car's steering more nervously than an old hand, but should quickly learn to chart as steady a path as the road allows.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That goes to the heart of the evolutionary approach which my noble friend Lord Peston has advocated for the MPC and the new system. The balance between independence and accountability, which the noble Baroness, Lady O'Cathain, seemed to regret as an unhappy compromise, in my view is an ideal starting point from which, no doubt, evolution over the next few years will produce worthwhile refinements in areas highlighted by the report and today's debate, such as the geographical and industrial orientation and length of tenure of MPC members. In the words of one of the MPC's independent members, Professor Willem Buiter, when comparing the constitution of the UK's new monetary control system with that of the ECB, we benefit from,
      &lt;q&gt;The British 'common law' genius for pragmatic institutional design and adaptation, and the example of openness and transparency set by the Bank of England since its independence in June 1997".&lt;/q&gt;
      Professor Buiter's comparison is, in passing, an important issue for anyone like myself who believes that, in principle, the UK's adoption of the euro within the next few years will be in the national interest and
      
      
      attainable under the criteria set out by my right honourable friend the Chancellor, but that not all the institutions and mechanisms established to date are as well-placed to address the consequences of a single currency as I would like.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Nonetheless, I wondered whether, when the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, among others pointed to the infrequency of interest rate changes for the euro in comparison with the unhelpful frequency of UK interest rate changes, he was struck by the irony of that in the context of his party's hostility to British membership of EMU for, in effect, the foreseeable future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I should like to end by venturing into what the noble Lord, Lord Roll, correctly identified as dangerous waters, particularly for a very rusty economics student. Like my noble friend Lord Peston, I regard myself as an unreconstructed Keynesian, although I am always wary of describing myself in those terms within earshot of the biographer of the great man, the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I do not believe that inflation is either purely or predominantly a monetary phenomenon. I believe that good monetary policy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for non-inflationary growth&amp;#x2014;a firm but mildly flexible framework within which the real economy can operate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      It is surely indisputable that deregulation, enhanced competition and innovation&amp;#x2014;in technological and other spheres&amp;#x2014;have contributed vitally to the creation of a lower inflationary environment world-wide over the past 10 years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The extraordinary record of the US economy during this period does Alan Greenspan and the Fed great credit; but the US markets risk spooking themselves unnecessarily at the prospect of Dr Greenspan's eventual retirement, if in analysing this success disproportionate weight is given to monetary policy and the contribution of competition and innovation underestimated. The consequences of competition and innovation for many companies are not comfortable, but those influences lie at the heart of sustainable, non-inflationary growth in the economy within a stable monetary framework. I believe that that is the virtuous circle encompassing low inflation, growth and full employment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      For those reasons, which are the essential limitations of monetary policy, I join the noble Lord, Lord Roll&amp;#x2014;somewhat to my surprise&amp;#x2014;in favouring clarification of the MPC's remit, which, if anything, narrows its scope, rather than moving towards the dual mandate advocated by Dr Gerard Lyons and others who gave evidence to the committee.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I commend the report to your Lordship's House. I can conclude only by suggesting that if there were any doubts in your Lordships' minds as to whether the Select Committee should be perpetuated, the truly remarkable speech of the noble Lord, Lord Roll, should have dispelled them, as well as providing a compelling argument for its unchanged membership.
    &lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04632'&gt;
  
  8.20 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-merlin-hanbury-tracy' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-merlin-hanbury-tracy" title="Mr Merlin Hanbury-Tracy"&gt;Lord Sudeley&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, there are three submissions in this report opposed to usury in its old sense of "lending money at no risk". Drawing on those submissions and on other sources&amp;#x2014;there is a large literature on the subject&amp;#x2014;perhaps I may paint with a broad brush what is wrong with usury and the banks creating money out of nothing, and what we should do about it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      There is no doubt that banks should not finance business enterprises with loans where they charge interest. Instead, they should enter into partnership agreements, where, as in Islamic banking, the business risk is shared equally between entrepreneurs and financiers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The use of bank credit consists&amp;#x2014;as I shall explain in a moment&amp;#x2014;not only of loans but of the creation of additional money. Money is cut loose from the real economy where goods and services are exchanged. Treated in that way as a commodity, money loses its value and stability as a medium of exchange. Money should therefore be a record of transactions for real goods and services. The fact that the medium-of exchange function of money is not adequately met is indicated by the growing emergence of local, LETS, private, Air Miles, and barter trade credit currencies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      How has money been cut loose from the real economy where goods and services are exchanged? The ancestors of the present banking industry in Tudor times were the goldsmiths, who realised that not all the gold plate and bullion deposited with them would be withdrawn at the same time. They therefore invented the audacious and fraudulent trick of issuing promissory notes, which are the origin of our present bank notes, to represent an excess of what they really had.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      That policy of lending out more than one has was continued by the banks with their system of fractional reserve, sometimes given as a proportion of 10 to one, but hedge funding is really far higher. We see that at two levels: national and private debt. The mechanism of national debt is quite simple. It involved the assumption of debt by the Government to obtain additional revenue to cover annual shortfall in taxation. Therefore, to pay for the war against Louis XIV, the Bank of England was chartered in 1694 and started out in the business of lending out several times over the money that it held in reserves, all at interest.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Such lending at a prudent rate took a quantum leap with World War I. It was extended further to pay for World War II, and in the United States of America it took an even greater quantum leap to pay for the Vietnam War. Therefore, by 1971, it became unbridgeable, and at a rate of growth beyond control. President Nixon had no choice but to cancel the right of the Government to exchange dollars for gold, which removed the gap altogether.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The level of private debt escalated in a similar fashion. During the 10 years from 1980, consumer debt rose from &amp;#x00A3;11 billion to &amp;#x00A3;43 billion, while mortgage borrowing increased more than five-fold.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      
      
      What are the bad effects of all this? There is no doubt that usury intensifies business cycles. Bank lending enabled share prices to rise to unsustainable levels in 1929; the Depression followed. Over-availability of credit caused a massive increase in house prices, followed by a dramatic fall in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In recession, interest acts as a fixed cost outside the company's control, unlike share dividends. The higher its debt-equity ratio, the worse are the implications.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The basic cause of inflation, then, must be the banks' use of fractional reserve in lending out more than they have. To reduce inflation, governments put up interest rates, which increases the profits made by the banks and encourages them to lend out more. Meanwhile, the high interest rates lead to a decline of economic activity because they increase production costs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      What is the way to curb the evils of usury which I have just described? The only way in particular to stop inflation is to stop banks from creating credit. The supply of money should be removed from banks and should be assumed by governments, who should issue it on a debt-free basis. Such a view is supported by five disparate quarters: the noble Lord, Lord Beswick, in the debate which he introduced to this House in 1985, Disraeli, the Vatican under Pope Pius XI in his Encyclical Quadragesimo Anno in 1931, the Tsars of Russia in the last century, who prevented the setting up of a privately owned central bank, and, above all, Abraham Lincoln, who said that governments should create, issue, and circulate all currency and credits needed to satisfy the spending power of governments and the buying power of consumers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      By adopting those principles, the taxpayer would be saved immense sums of interest. Lincoln's greenbacks were generally popular, and their existence let the genie out of the bottle with the public becoming accustomed to government-issued, debt-free money. The year after Lincoln's assassination, Congress set to work at the bidding of the European central banking interests to retire the greenbacks from circulation and to ensure the reinstitution of a privately owned central bank under the usurers' control.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      During the history of the United States, the money power has gone back and forth between Congress and some privately owned central bank. The American people fought off four privately owned central banks before succumbing to a fifth privately owned central bank, at that time essential, owing to the period of weakness during the Civil War.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The founding fathers of the United States knew the evils of a privately owned central bank. They had seen how the Bank of England ran up the British national debt to such an extent that Parliament was forced to place unfair taxes on the American colonies, leading to their loss following, the American Revolution.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I now conclude. Once the fundamental decision is taken to prevent sterling from being debt-based, the Commonwealth could act as the right monetary union to use sterling debt-free as a genuine alternative to the dollar and the euro.
    &lt;/p&gt;
  &lt;/blockquote&gt;
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&lt;p class='procedural' id='S5LV0606P0-04634'&gt;
  
  8.27 p.m.
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  &lt;blockquote cite='http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-richard-newby' class='contribution_text entry-content'&gt;
    
    &lt;cite class='member author entry-title'&gt;&lt;a href="http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/people/mr-richard-newby" title="Mr Richard Newby"&gt;Lord Newby&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
    &lt;p class='first-para'&gt;
      My Lords, it is a privilege for me to speak in this debate, as it was indeed to serve on the committee. I join other noble Lords in the tributes that they have paid to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for keeping what started off as a relatively unruly crew in extremely good order. The concept of guided democracy may be dead in eastern Europe, but it is not dead in your Lordships' House. We are extremely grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, for all his efforts on our collective behalf.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I congratulate all the maiden speakers. I was extremely sorry, however, that the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, did not dilate on the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean, not least because it constitutes about half a per cent difference in the rate of inflation. Although we had to grapple with the way in which he reached that conclusion, it was a conclusion with which we all agreed, and it is very significant, as I am sure the noble Lord, Lord Vinson, would agree.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I was also particularly delighted to hear the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Woolmer, because until this evening, I believed&amp;#x2014;perhaps incorrectly&amp;#x2014;that I was the only Leeds United supporter in your Lordships' House. Although consensus was arrived at on many issues in our committee, we were riven regularly on matters concerning football. It is a great relief to me to know that I will have such a heavyweight reinforcement in battles no doubt to come on that front.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I return to the report. I believe that it serves two principal useful functions. First, it describes in great detail, and for the first time, a major institutional and constitutional change within this country. I hope that it is widely disseminated and read. I am not sure that as an institution ourselves we are very good at making the outside world aware of what we do. Given that there is a huge amount of academic and amateur input into this report, I hope that effort will be made to ensure that those who might benefit from reading it have the opportunity to realise both that it exists and then to read it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      I hope that the second benefit of the report is that shining such a strong and detailed spotlight on to the MPC has shown up both its strengths and its weaknesses. I start with the strengths. It is worth repeating that our basic contention was that the Government were right to set up a committee. When measured against its key remit to hit an inflation target, the committee has achieved that with a considerable measure of success. As many noble Lords have said, we all agree that it has done so during a benign period of economic activity. But that is not the fault of the committee, and the truth is that it has achieved its target for the first two years, and for that it is to be congratulated.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Equally, we all accept that there are many influences on inflation other than the interest rate. Arguably, some of them are more important from time to time than the interest rate. However, we would all accept that over the medium to long term, the interest rate is
      
      
      a crucial contributory determinant of the rate of inflation. In exercising its role, the MPC has performed pretty well.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      In my view, rather than in any particular decision that it has made, arguably the key success of the MPC has been in its effect on inflationary expectations. Despite the problems that the noble Lord, Lord Howell, correctly described about measurement, in an imperfect world one wants institutions to bear down on inflation. I believe that by making clear that it would act firmly if it thought that inflation was taking off, the MPC has had a significant impact on inflationary expectations, both in respect of the impact on wage bargaining and more generally. I believe that that is a considerable achievement and one that will serve us well in the medium to longer term.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      For a major British institution, the MPC is also an extremely open and transparent body. I also believe that it is independent and accountable. I think that the criticisms by the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard, emanate rather more from a political view than from any evidence. Speaking from, I hope, a non-political view, all the evidence is that the independent members behave independently. There is no evidence that they are dancing to the Chancellor's tune. Equally, they have regularly attended our committee and the equivalent committee in another place to account for their actions. I believe that to argue that they are not accountable is, frankly, not borne out by the evidence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      However, we did not conclude that all was perfect. At the macro level, we were concerned with the relationship of monetary and fiscal policy. The noble Lord, Lord Vinson, has touched on that. The Chancellor was keen to reassure us that the mechanisms for co-ordinating the two worked well. But there is no doubt that if the two are partners, the Chancellor is the lead partner. As the noble Lord, Lord Currie, said, it may be a good thing that the Bank can respond to the Chancellor's lead. However, it is undoubtedly the case that the lead is on fiscal policy and the Bank adjusts to that, rather than vice versa.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      Secondly, there are measurement issues to which both the noble Lords, Lord Vinson and Lord Howell, referred. There are outstanding questions about price indices in particular. We spent some time talking about those and there is more work to be done in that area. Clearly, there are some issues in relation to appointment and composition. Those which particularly concerned us related to the transparency of the appointment system and also the need&amp;#x2014;as, I believe, the majority of us saw it&amp;#x2014;to try to attain a greater geographic spread among the members.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;
      The role of the independent members, which has generated so much press interest over the past week or two, was one at which we began to look. However, it did not seem to be quite the issue that it has become. I believe&amp;#x2014;indeed, I am sure&am