§ Mr. Doran
To ask the Secretary of State for Scotland what estimates he has made of the future numbers of elderly people in(a) Scotland, and (b) Grampian; and what projections he has made of the numbers of elderly people in each case who will require over the next 10 years (i) continuing care in the National Health Service, (ii) long-term residential care and (iii) domiciliary care support services from local authorities, and on what basis he calculated those projections. 
§ Mr. Galbraith
The estimated number of people over the age of 65 and 75 in Scotland and in the Grampian Health Board area for the years 1996 to 2006 is set out in the tables.
Scotland Grampian Year 65+ 75+ 65+ 75+ 1996 779,462 333,589 74,470 32,302 1997 782,450 339,410 75,164 33,034 1998 783,085 342,095 75,577 33,490 1999 784,014 344,977 76,108 33,927 2000 785,744 347,362 76,556 34,391 2001 788,069 350,580 77,071 34,827 2002 790,685 352,702 77,577 35,229 2003 793,970 354,230 78,141 35,628 2004 797,423 356,629 78,623 35,988 2005 800,671 359,228 79,276 36,379 2006 802,005 362,151 79,638 36,745
Government Actuaries Department in consultation with the Registrar
General based on 1996 population projections for Scotland.586W
Assessment of current and future needs for care services for the elderly in their areas is primarily a matter for Health Boards and local authorities. The aim for all groups is to secure the most effective package of health and social care services, both in hospital and in the community, that meet the specific needs of individuals and, where appropriate, their carers.
The Government's assumption is that the growth in requirement for community services will broadly keep pace with the growth in numbers of older people. The balance between residential and domiciliary care services and between health and social care is best determined locally, to meet the needs of the local population.
§ Mr. Doran
To ask the Secretary of State for Scotland what criteria are applied in respect of the admission of elderly people in Grampian to continuing care in the National Health Service to assess whether they require continuing medical and nursing care; and in what respects these criteria differ from the criteria which are applied in other health board areas in Scotland. 
§ Mr. Galbraith
The criteria are determined by guidance issued by the Scottish Office Department of Health to the NHS in Scotland and local authorities in 1996. Although local criteria may be developed, they must not involve a reduction of the published national terms. In this respect, Grampian does not differ from any other health board in Scotland. However, decisions about individual patients' care needs are ultimately for the clinical judgment of the consultant involved.