§ Mr. Peter Bottomley
To ask the Secretary of State for Health if she will list in order for the United Kingdom, and for each country that has banned tobacco advertising which has been studied by the Department's chief economist, the estimated influence of a ban, restrictions on advertising short of a ban, health warnings, price, and parental example to children; and what estimates were made of the effect of each factor in each country.
§ Dr. Mawhinney
It is not possible to provide estimates for the influence of all the factors. Available information is as follows—in England, children whose parents both smoke are two and a half times more likely to smoke than children whose parents do not smoke;—estimates for the reduction in tobacco consumption associated with a 10 per cent. increase in price range between 2 per cent. and 6 per cent. for the United Kingdom and the countries studied;—estimates for the proportional reduction in tobacco consumption associated with an advertising ban range between 4 per cent. and 9 per cent. in the countries studied. It is unclear whether these figures would be replicated in the United Kingdom, given the fall in smoking in the United Kingdom from 45 per cent. of the population in 1974 to 30 per cent. in 1990 and the existing controls on tobacco advertising through the voluntary agreement on tobacco advertising and promotion.