§ Mr. Wheeler
To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what is the estimated effect on the prison population of abolishing parole for prisoners serving under(a) two and (b) three years and replacing this with supervised or conditional release after one-half and one-third of the sentence, respectively.
§ Mr. Douglas Hogg
The information requested is as shown. The estimates assume no compensatory change in 871W sentencing practice. The effect also depends on the precise nature of the supervisory scheme and in particular the extent to which persons might be recalled to prison while under supervision. The estimates assume no offsetting increase due to such recalls or due to any additional reconvictions occurring as a result of earlier release.
Estimated reduction1 in the England and Wales prison population2 from replacing parole with supervised or conditional release after one-third and one-half of sentence. Number Sentence lengths affected One half sentence One third sentence Under two years 3 300 5,900 Under three years 3 400 7,900 1 It has been assumed that release would be contingent upon good behaviour and that, as with the existing remission scheme, offences against prison discipline would cause release to be deferred by the equivalent of 1 per cent. of sentence on average. 2 Estimates based on statistics for 1986, adjusted to reflect the subsequent increase in remission to one half for sentences up to 12 months (August 1987). Excluding fine-defaulters, non-criminal prisoners, lifers and those prematurely released from prison whose numbers are unlikely to be affected by the scheme. Estimates rounded to nearest 100. 3 No contribution made by sentences up to 12 months which are already eligible for remission of one half sentence.