§ Mr. Lamborn
asked the Secretary of State for Transport if he will publish a table in the Official Report comparing the inflation assumptions made when setting the cash limits for the Roads, England Vote and the actual inflation rate for each year since the cash limit system was instituted.
§ Mr. Fowler
The cash limits for 1976–77 and 1977–78 were derived by adjusting the provision for those years, expressed at the average price levels of 1974–75 and 1975–76 respectively, by an amount representing estimated inflation over the intervening two years. The assumed percentage increases affecting the roads cash block were:
1974–75 to 1976–77 1975–76 to 1977.78 Road construction 60.4 23.3 Land –11.2 28.4 Other current expenditure on goods and services 40.7 34.3
The cash limits for the years 1978–79 to 1980–81 were derived by adjusting the provision for each year, expressed at the average price level of the preceding year, by an amount representing estimated inflation over the intervening year. The assumed percentage increases were:
1977–78 to 1978–79 1978–79 to 1979–80 1979–80 to 1980–81 Road construction 7.0 15.3 16.4 Land 12.0 10.7 15.0 Other current expenditure on goods and services 6.5 8.2 14.0
The following are the actual percentage inflation rates affecting the main elements of the programme from November to November of the relevant years—figures for November 1974 to November 1975 are not readily available:
Nov. 1975 to Nov. 1977 Nov. 1977 to Nov. 1978 Nov. 1978 to Nov. 1979 Motorway and trunk road *28'4 19.5 †29.4 construction *38.8 Land 55.0 32.9 34.3 Motorway and trunk road maintenance 38.8 8.9 19.7 *Tender Prices. †Provisional.
The inflation assumptions are applied to the estimated pattern of expenditure, whereas the actual price movements apply to the actual pattern.