§ Mr. Michael Brown
asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what are the Treasury's forecasts of the unemployment figure 12 months from 1 May.
§ Sir Geoffrey Howe
I refer my hon. Friend to the reply I gave to the hon.
Date of Budget Forecast RPI effects Changes in RPI over following 12 months per cent. 26 March 1974 … "In terms of retail prices the action that we are taking on food subsidies will lower the index by about 1½ per cent. and this will largely offset the increases in the excise duties and the changes in VAT". [Official Report, Vol. 871, c. 327]. 21.2 12 November 1974 "The relaxation of the Price Code and the increase in the value added tax on petrol will, of course raise the retail price index: the effect by the middle of next year I estimate at a little over 1½ per cent.". [Official Report, Vo. 881, c. 278]. 25.2 15 April 1975 … "Mainly by adjusting the excise duties to reflect past inflation, my Budget measures themselves will put up the RPI by about 2¾ per cent.". [Official Report, Vol. c. 318]. 18.9 6 April 1976 … "Together all these indirect tax changes will add about ¾ per cent. to the Retail Price Index". [Official Report, Vol. 909, c 260]. 17.5 29 March 1977 … "The effect on the RPI by the fourth quarter of this year will be an increase of just under 1 per cent.". [Official Report, Vol. 929, c. 275]. 9.1 11 April 1978 … "The effect on the RPI will be negligible". [Official Report, Vol. 947, c. 1203]. 10.1