§ Mr. Joel Barnett
An estimate has been made of the direct effects over the period from now until 1986. If the current programme for producing 16 aircraft were continued, on the basis of British Airways' assessment of the most likely outcome of their Concorde operations there would be a balance of payments loss of some£30 million in present value terms if there were no sales beyond the nine aircraft ordered by British Airways and Air France, and a gain of some£10 million if all five additional saleable aircraft were sold overseas, as compared with the position if the project were cancelled. There is no expectation that British airlines would purchase any other supersonic transport within this period. These estimates do not take into account any indirect benefit which might be derived from the use in other ways of the resources now devoted to Concorde.