DEFENCE

§ Mr. Speaker

Before we begin our business for the day, I must tell the House that an unusually large number of right hon. and hon. Members have indicated that they hope to catch my eye during the day. Obviously, they will not all get in, although it appears that a large number of hon. Members are secretaries, deputy secretaries, chairmen or vice-chairmen of various defence groups in the House. I know that there are also hon. Members with important constituency interests. I can only tell the House once again that the number of hon. Members I shall be able to call depends largely on the length of the speeches of those who are fortunate enough to catch my eye.

I should also tell the House that I have decided to call the amendment in the names of the hon. Member for Salford, East (Mr. Allaun) and his right hon. and hon. Friends.

§ Mr. Ian Gilmour (Chesham and Amersham)

I beg to move, That the salary of the Secretary of State for Defence should be reduced by half. This motion is directed against the Secretary of State because we strongly believe that he should have resigned his office, but our condemnation goes far wider than that. We condemn the whole so-called defence policy of the Labour Government since they came to power in 1974. They have cut, or plan to cut, defence expenditure by over £8,000 million, they have gravely diminished our defence capabilities, they have damaged defence industries and they have lowered the morale of our Armed Forces.

The House will have been interested recently to read the reports of Cabinet meetings. I am referring not to all the copious leaks from the Cabinet about its agonising over the IMF loan but to the reports of Cabinet meetings in 1946. They record how Ernest Bevin came to recognise that, after the defeat of Germany, Soviet Russia provided the real threat to this country. We can well 1437 imagine the caustic and contemptuous terms in which Ernest Bevin would have condemned the unilateral disarmament practised by this Government. The contrast between the realism of Bevin and Attlee and the neglect of our forces by the present Government merely shows how far the Labour Party has deteriorated under the leadership of the right hon. Member for Huyton (Sir H. Wilson) and the present Prime Minister.

To give the Government their due, they do not pretend that their defence policy has much to do with defence. It bears very small relation either to our defence needs or to the international situation. They are concerned with quite different matters. That is where the profound difference between the two sides of the House lies.

We believe, as my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition has said, that it is the first duty of every Government to safeguard their people against external aggression and to guarantee the survival of their way of life. It follows that defence policy should be based on the defence needs of the country. That is elementary but, unfortunately, it is too advanced for the Labour Party. The Labour Party does not believe that. Its priorities lie elsewhere and, as a result, the Labour Government cut defence to be able to spend in other fields.

As I said, the Government do not claim that their defence policy is related to defence needs. They have produced two defence White Papers, in both of which they have chillingly depicted the great threat posed by the Russians. It was clear from the 1976 White Paper that the balance had deteriorated against the West by about 8 per cent. In both White Papers the Government spelt out that the Russians were increasing in strength. They then drew the totally irrational conclusion that therefore we should reduce our defences. As the Russians get stronger, the Government say, we should get weaker. We believe that that is an abdication of duty by the Government.

It needs no great application of logic or knowledge to show that our defences are now below the critical level, because in July 1975 the then Chief of the Defence Staff, Field-Marshal Carver, said publicly on television that we were down to "absolute bedrock". Field-Marshal 1438 Carver is a man who chooses his words carefully. Since he made those remarks, the Government have cut defence expenditure on three occasions. If we were down to absolute bedrock and then three further cuts are made it is plain that we are now below bedrock and, therefore, below the critical level of defence. That is plain—QED. That is why the Chiefs of Staff went to see the Prime Minister before Christmas. That leads me to the conduct of the Secretary of State for Defence.

When I asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, after his statement on the economic situation, whether he would confirm that these latest cuts endangered Britain's defences and the unity of the Western Alliance, he replied that that was not the sort of question that should be asked and that it was contrary to normal practice. In ordinary circumstances that would have been right, but the Chancellor of the Exchequer ignored, rather wisely, what the Secretary of State had said the day before. In answer to a similar question by me on the previous day, the Secretary of State said: The Chiefs of Staff must speak for themselves". When will he allow them to speak for themselves? Can they speak for themselves? What did he mean by that?

§ The Secretary of State for Defence (Mr. Frederick Mulley)

The right hon. Gentleman earlier gave the answer. He said that Field-Marshal Carver did speak for himself when he was Chief of the Defence Staff.

§ Mr. Gilmour

I take that to mean that the Secretary of State is admitting my charge. If what the Secretary of State said has any meaning at all, he is admitting that the Chiefs of Staff think that our Forces are now below the critical level. The Secretary of State's intervention can mean nothing else, but that does not lie very well with what he went on to say. Having said that the Chiefs of Staff must speak for themselves, he went on to say: they do not feel that our defence is below the critical level."—[Official Report, 14th December 1976; Vol. 922, c. 1172.] On the next day the Chancellor of the Exchequer wisely did not commit himself to that extremely rash statement by the right hon. Gentleman. If the Secretary of State says again this afternoon 1439 that the Chiefs of Staff do not think that we are below the critical level, we shall not believe a word he says. We shall not believe him unless he fulfils his undertaking in the first part of his answer to let the Chiefs of Staff speak for themselves. If he does not, we shall not believe him. His credibility is extremely low.

§ Mr. John Cronin (Loughborough)

It is a novel and extraordinary constitutional doctrine that a Minister's advisers or civil servants should speak their opinions in public. Is not the right hon. Gentleman being unfair to the Chiefs of Staff? If our defences are being cut to well below the critical level, as he suggested, have not the Chiefs of Staff a duty to resign?

§ Mr. Gilmour

I was quoting the Secretary of State. It was he who said that the Chiefs of Staff must speak for themselves. The hon. Gentleman's quarrel is with him, not with me. Secondly, I do not believe that it is the duty of the Chiefs of Staff to resign. I believe that it is the duty of the Secretary of State to resign, and I shall explain why.

The Chiefs of Staff went to the Prime Minister because they were gravely alarmed about the state of our defence forces. We all know that the Chiefs of Staff often see the Prime Minister and other Ministers in the ordinary course of events, but this was not the ordinary course of events. We also know that the Prime Minister often wants to see the Chiefs of Staff.

What is very unusual—despite what the right hon. Gentleman said before Christmas—is for the Chiefs of Staff to ask for their constitutional right of audience with the Prime Minister. That is very unusual, and they did it because they were gravely alarmed. If the Secretary of State shares the apprehension of the Chiefs of Staff, obviously he should have resigned. I think the Secretary of State for Defence must have agreed with the grave apprehensions of his Chiefs of Staff. I find it difficult to see how he could disagree with them. If he did, I hope he will tell us the source of his information or knowledge which enabled him to disagree with them. And if he did disagree, if he found himself in puny disagreement with the Chiefs of Staff out of ignorance or because he had 1440 different priorities, he merely showed that defence was not his primary interest. If that is so he has lost, and deserves to lose, the confidence of his professional advisers and of the Armed Forces.

The right hon. Gentleman has also lost the confidence of our allies, because when he attended a NATO meeting which came out in favour of defence expenditure he did not dare say that the cuts would take place. Either way, the Secretary of State should resign. He can be of no further good. For all his amiability—we all like him personally—he can be no good. In a very weak Government he is now a total passenger. He would have done his reputation a great deal of good by resigning.

In fairness to the Secretary of State, it is not his fault entirely. We blame just as much the Prime Minister, the previous Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the whole Government. The Secretary of State knows well that even before these cuts there was a considerable morale problem in the Forces. At least one instance has been given to him by the Opposition, and there are many others.

This is not surprising, because the right hon. Gentleman may be able to fool certain people in this House but there are two groups he cannot fool—the Armed Forces and the Russians. Both our Armed Forces and the Russians know the facts. Our Armed Forces know of the enormous Russian build-up which is taking place. General Haig, the Supreme Allied Commander, pointed out this week that in Eastern Europe in the last few years the Russians have raised their tank strength by 40 per cent. and their artillery strength by 50 per cent. Our Armed Forces know that. They also know about the great increase in the Russian navy and that this enormous expansion of Russian maritime capability gives the Russians, as the right hon. Gentleman's own NATO communiqué said, a chance to bring military pressure to bear all over the world.

Our Armed Forces also know—and we hear less about this than about the threatening Russian naval strength—about the very grave, increasing and striking growth in the Russian air force. The Soviet Air Force now adds one combat wing per month to its front line. To put it another way, as the Chief of the 1441 Defence Staff said in the summer, they are building 1,800 military aircraft a year, of which 800 are of the most modern types.

Faced with this increasing threat, our Armed Forces find their strength being continuously reduced by the Government. The Chancellor of the Exchequer said in 1968, when he was Secretary of State for Defence: I think the Services can be rightly very upset at the continuous series of defence reviews which the Government has been forced by economic circumstances—and maybe economic mistakes too—to carry out. That is even more true today. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman will not tell us today that these cuts will not damage our contribution to NATO. We know that they will, just as the previous cuts did. Wherever they fall, they will do damage, perhaps most of all if they fall in the Eastern Mediterranean. All our troops know that. They have had their spares, their ammunition and their fuel cut. They know that shortages affect their training and their efficiency and cannot fail to affect their morale.

We read today about the 5 per cent. cut in naval fuel and the effect that this will have on the Royal Navy. I hope that the House realises that this is a result not of the latest defence cuts but of the last cuts but one, or perhaps even the last cuts but two. We do not know the results yet of the present cuts.

I want to read an extract from the minutes of evidence given before the Defence and External Affairs Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee, the report of which came out yesterday. My hon. Friend the Member for Hampstead (Mr. Finsberg) asked the witness: On the consumption of fuel, you refer to a 5 per cent. reduction in naval fuel consumption. What constraints is this going to place on the Navy in carrying out its normal peace-time role? The reply was: The main constraint that fuel reduction involves is a reduction in speeds of passage. The effects of this are threefold: ship availability is reduced because ships take longer to carry out a given mission; training standards suffer because most military evolutions require high speeds. If a ship is proceeding at an economical cruising speed, it probably cannot carry out military evolutions realistically. There are also effects on manpower where perhaps a sailor is at sea when he could have been at home if the ship had gone faster. 1442 What a way to run a navy. The Armed Forces are almost the only people in this country now who do not go on strike, but the Government are well able to meet that challenge—they impose a general go-slow upon them. That applies not only to the Royal Navy but to the Army and the Royal Air Force as well.

Fortunately, this effect on morale has not yet reached our forces in Northern Ireland—or at least it had not done so when I visited them in November. Morale there was very high still. But the Government need to be careful. Our troops in Northern Ireland are carrying out a most dangerous, difficult and thankless task with exemplary courage, fortitude and forbearance. Surely the least they can expect is a Government who do not cut security whenever they have a chance. The Government must realise that they are taking a risk, not only elsewhere but in Northern Ireland as well.

The Tory attitude to defence is, of course, quite different from that of the Government. We believe that the defence of the country and the freedom of the West comes before everything else. None of the desirable things that everyone wants to do can be securely achieved unless our defences are properly maintained. Nor can detente. Detente means the relaxation of tension, but there is no possibility of genuine detente unless Western strength is maintained. The sort of detente we have at present, in which we relax and the Russians do not, is no good at all. We are all in favour of detente provided that it is genuine and provided that it is mutual, but we shall never achieve it by unilateral disarmament. The world is becoming increasingly interdependent and also increasingly unstable. As the late Alastair Buchan said in his Reith lectures: There has been a quantitative change of colossal proportions in the inter-dependence of Western societies and in the demands we make on natural resources. The result of that change is that diplomacy is much more complex and that defence of Western interests requires a much wider range of instruments of policy than defence alone. But the preservation—or, rather, the redress—of the military balance is the fundamental precondition, and anyone who thinks that freedom can be preserved without our being able to defend ourselves should have a word with the Poles and the Czechs. Moreover, because of the long lead time of modern 1443 weapons, one cannot rearm overnight. One has to start long before the greatest point of danger is reached, and the Russian arms build-up is gathering pace.

So when we return to power we shall strengthen our defences. We believe that to be vital, and our allies agree. The Supreme Allied Commander said recently: All the nations of the Alliance need to do more if we are to maintain a credible balance. At present, the Government are doing less and less, and we shall reverse that process.

But, of course, it is not only we on this side of the House who deplore the Government's defence policy. It is not only we and the Chiefs of Staff who are concerned about the weakness of the country. The all-party Defence and External Affairs Sub-Committee, which does invaluable work for the House, had this to say in January 1976: The United Kingdom's contribution to collective defence cannot be significantly reduced without risking a serious loss of confidence among members of the NATO Alliance, on which our national security depends. Our forces are small and our reserves are few …. We consider that the House should be aware of the consequences for our defence capability and for our contribution to the NATO Alliance if further major cuts were to be imposed. As we know, the Government ignored that warning and imposed three more rounds of cuts. The cuts next year will be not far short of £1,000 million, and in the year after that £2,000 million.

Our allies were deeply anxious before the latest cuts. Dr. Luns has given grave warnings, and in London last November the Supreme Allied Commander said that those Western leaders who thought that they could solve their internal problems by cutting defence were confused. He did not say which politicians he thought were confused but we all know who he meant.

§ Mr. Frank Allaun (Salford, East)

I thank the hon. Gentleman for giving way. He is more courteous than some of his hon. Friends.

The Shadow Defence Secretary has twice spoken of three sets of cuts. Will he accept from me that our arms bill in the last four years has gone up in cash terms from £3.8 million to £6.1 million and that in real terms, at 1975 constant prices, there has been an increase of £200 1444 million a year in that period? That is even without allowing for the £571 million Supplementary Estimate last month.

§ Mr. Gilmour

I do not think the hon. Gentleman has noticed the inflation that has been going on under his own Government. As he well knows, defence has been cut very substantially indeed. That should be a matter of great moment to anyone concerned with the defence of the West. Those who are not concerned with the defence of the West do not have to worry.

As General Haig said, there has been an expansion in Russian military capability, and fortunately our allies have all reacted differently from the way in which the Government have reacted. We must consider why the Government are so sharply out of step with our allies in the West and why they are acting directly contrary to the national interest.

In the debate just before Christmas the Minister of State for Defence said, It would be irresponsible for any Government to make any major reduction in our defence spending outside the contexxt of the mutual and balanced force reductions ".—[Official Report, 14th December, 1976; Vol. 922, c. 1241.] I do not know where the Minister of State has been during the last two years but that is exactly what the Government have been doing for the last two years. They have unilaterally disarmed this country while the Russians have been rearming. On the Minister's own showing, therefore, his own Government are irresponsible.

Irresponsibility and sheer ineptitude are no doubt part of the explanation, but they are only part of the explanation, for the Government's disastrous conduct. The real explanation is the one pointed to by the hon. Member for Berwick and East Lothian (Mr. Mackintosh) in his article in The Times on 15th December when he said that what the Cabinet was considering, when it was considering the Government expenditure cuts, was not the essential needs of the country but what it could get through the Labour Party.

As many hon. Gentlemen below the Gangway do not like any defence spending for Britain at all, defence cuts are, of course, the easiest way of keeping them sweet, if that is the right word, and 1445 stopping the party from splitting. Thus the national interest is disregarded in order to propitiate men whose commitment to free institutions, and the defence of the West, is neither enthusiastic nor conspicuous.

In the short debate on defence before Christmas one or two hon. Members below the Gangway complained of our suggestion that they were not concerned with the defence of this country. If they are concerned with the defence of this country, they have a very funny way of showing it. They lose no opportunity whatever of trying to weaken the defence of this country and trying to weaken the Western alliance.

It goes without saying that it is quite unjustifiable for the Government to decide their policy not on national needs but on mere convenience of party management. It is also very stupid, because the Left is insatiable and will never be satisfied with defence cuts. The only thing that will satisfy the Left will be to abolish defence altogether.

Labour's absurd programme for Britain 1976, which was overwhelmingly endorsed by the last Labour conference, proposed further cuts of £1,200 million a year at 1976 prices. Cuts of that sort would totally cripple our defences. No doubt that is the intention. We should be left virtually defenceless.

The House need not take my word for that. I can quote as witnesses two present members of the Cabinet. When the House has been reminded of what they had to say it will not be surprised that the present Prime Minister removed them from the Ministry of Defence and installed the present management. When he was Minister of State for Defence the now Secretary of State for Transport said that cuts of this size would so severely undermine the position of NATO that we could see a complete reversal of the situation that has existed since 1945."—[Official Report, 15th June 1976; Vol. 913, c. 301.] The then Secretary of State for Defence said on 13th July: Any further reduction—even of much less than £1,000 million a year by 1980— I wonder what he meant by that? I would think something like the cuts that we have had since he made those remarks— 1446 would require savage cuts in the Armed Forces and many equipment orders would have to be cancelled. Our allies would no longer regard us as serious allies and partners. The disarray that would be caused in the NATO Alliance would place at risk the whole of the security of Europe, not least our own. Our enemies would be able to take advantage of our weaknesses. Referring to the cuts of £1,000 million, he said that such cuts would entail at best a policy of neutrality and at worst surrender.

Yet that is the policy of the Labour Party. It is the policy of the Labour Party Conference. It is the policy of the Labour Party National Executive Committee on which the Secretary of State sits and it is the policy of the Tribune Group. But of course the Tribune Group goes even further.

A Tribune Group document issued in July agrees that there is a contradiction between many of the aims of Labour Programme 1976 and adds: and the fundamental commitment, accepted by all British Governments for the past quarter of a century, to NATO and other military alliances. These are designed to achieve security and stability for existing regimes which are situated within the Western sphere of influence. This end is in many cases incompatible with support for movements seeking to achieve radical social change". I take it that by that the Tribune Group means Communist revolution. It goes on: In the absence of positive steps towards mutual and concurrent phasing out of NATO we consider that Britain should progressively reduce her commitment to NATO. It certainly would.

That document must have caused great satisfaction in the Kremlin but, unfortunately, nowhere else, because the attitude of the Labour Left Wing is unique outside Russia and the Warsaw Pact. The Chinese are certainly very anxious that Western defence should be maintained and they despise those who seek to weaken it.

Marshal Tito, who is not a very Right-wing figure, also takes a very different line on defence from the many vocal hon. Gentlemen below the Gangway. Speaking on 20th December he said that Yugoslavia must improve its national defence so that it would be capable … of deterring a would-be aggressor". 1447 I doubt whether even Government supporters below the Gangway think that Marshal Tito believes that NATO or the West is the would-be aggressor. We all know from where Marshal Tito thinks the aggression is likely to come.

Even the Italian Communist Party is more pro-NATO than the Tribune Group. In June, Signor Berlingeur said that he did not want to leave NATO. He went on: I feel more secure staying in". The Tribune Group really should get together with the Italian Communists. They would find them a most civilising and Westernising influence.

§ Mr. Stanley Newens (Harlow)

I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for giving me an opportunity to say a word about this. Instead of basing our policies on the situation in Britain, about which we are concerned and about which the British people are concerned, is he suggesting that we should base our policies on what emanates from the Italian Communist Party, the Chinese, the Yugoslavs or, for that matter, Moscow? We in the Tribune Group believe that our defence policies should be based on British interests. That is what that document was about.

§ Mr. Gilmour

The hon. Member for Harlow (Mr. Newens) fell below his usual level in that intervention. I was trying to suggest as tactfully as I could that the Tribune Group's foreign policy seems to be based on Russian interests and not on Western interests. Therefore, the Tribune Group is on its own, and it is futile and damaging of the Government to subordinate the national interest to trying to maintain Left-wing support.

The Government's record since 1974 and their continued obeisance to the Left is a shameful story. This has happened in other areas as well, but the difference is that in other areas the Left has normally stopped the Government from doing the right thing. In defence, it merely forces the Government to do the wrong thing.

From the national point of view, there is no conceivable justification for these cuts. We know, because the right hon. Member for Newham, North-East (Mr. Prentice) has told us, that there was no careful consideration of our capabilities or of our commitments. We know that 1448 these cuts will weaken our contribution to NATO. We know that our allies are appalled by them. We know that the Chiefs of Staff are gravely alarmed by them. We know that the Government's sole reason is to propitiate the Left.

There is only one possible conclusion to be drawn. It is that the Secretary of State and the Government have put their party before their country. They have failed in their national duty, and I hope that the House will support this motion.

§ The Secretary of State for Defence (Mr. Frederick Mulley)

I am grateful to the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour) for giving us the opportunity to debate the important subject of defence in advance of the publication of the annual White Paper next month. I am particularly glad to have the chance to put some facts on the record since the serious and outrageous allegations which he made against the Government cannot be sustained on a basis of the facts and assessments—political, military or in terms of public expenditure. I shall try to cover the major issues—the principles of our defence policy, what the right hon. Gentleman called the Soviet threat, our contribution to the Alliance, the figures of defence expenditure and the state of our forces, including the points he raised about the position of the Chiefs of Staff.

Britain's defence rests firmly on the North Atlantic Alliance. Our commitment to NATO is an absolute one. Our security depends on the cohesion of the Alliance, and this in turn depends on the maintenance of a significant and effective contribution from us. The central point we are debating today is the size and character that this contribution should be.

The right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham argued that NATO's forces were too small in relation to the threat from the Warsaw Pact. It is of course true, as my predecessor made clear in last year's White Paper, that the military capability of the Warsaw Pact continues to grow. No one would deny this. We estimate that over the last three years the Soviet Union has increased its defence expenditure by 5 per cent. in real terms and now spends between 11 per cent. and 12 per cent. of GNP on the 1449 development of new weapons and on the maintenance of its armed forces.

I accept, of course, that comparative percentages of GNP can be only a rough and ready guide to military capacity, since they depend upon the relative levels of income and rates of economic growth which may in consequence produce a much greater defence capacity from a lower percentage of GNP. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the Warsaw Pact forces have increased in quantity and, more importantly, in quality. The lead in military technology that the West has hitherto enjoyed is being eroded as Soviet scientific and industrial capacity expands.

It is for this reason that it is essential to achieve progress in arms control and disarmament. We have to find ways of achieving stability—[interruption.] If Opposition Members would not like to see the level of armaments all over the world reduced, I am sorry for them and for the people whom they represent.

§ Mr. Michael Brotherton (Louth)

Would not it be fair to say that if Iron Curtain countries are spending more on their own defence, it is ridiculous that we should cut our own defences? Is it not foolish for the Secretary of State to say that just because there is a danger from the East, therefore, we should cut our own expenditure in the West?

§ Mr. Mulley

If the hon. Gentleman will do me the courtesy of listening to the rest of my speech, he will find that I could not in a couple of paragraphs deal with all the matters that he raised.

§ Mr. Brotherton

Answer my question.

§ Mr. Mulley

The short answer to the hon. Gentleman is that this was equally a relevant factor in 1973, to which I shall come later in my remarks.

I am sure, despite the evidence to the contrary, that it is the hope on both sides of the House that 1977 will bring success in the SALT talks, which are of such vital importance to us all in the West—and in the rest of the world, too—as well as in the Vienna negotiations on mutual and balanced force reductions in Central Europe. We must all hope that the Soviet leaders will come to realise that continued growth in military power, especially the imbalance of forces in Cen- 1450 tral Europe, threatens to undermine the stability of Europe and, therefore, of the world.

§ Mr. Peter Walker (Worcester)

Although I agree with the right hon. Gentleman about that, does not he agree that the Soviet Union is more likely to take disarmament seriously when the imbalance is going against it rather than very much in its favour?

§ Mr. Mulley

Certainly it is the case that we have to sustain the level of NATO forces. I shall be coming on to deal with that matter and the very substantial contribution which we make to NATO—incidentally, rather more than was made at the time when the right hon. Member for Worcester (Mr. Walker) was himself a member of the then Government.

The Warsaw Pact's military capability does not by itself constitute a threat to the security of the West. We have to look also at its intentions. There is no reason to believe that the Warsaw Pact is likely to attack NATO. In recent years tension between East and West has been markedly reduced. But political intentions can change quickly while a buildup of military strength is inevitably a slow process. Indeed, the increases in Soviet forces which we have noted in recent years must reflect decisions taken several years ago. NATO must therefore maintain forces in sufficient strength to deter any form of aggression and must maintain the will and the determination to resist it.

The essential feature of the North Atlantic Alliance is, as I have said, its collective nature. Naturally, the United States makes by far the largest contribution to the military forces of the Alliance, but she cannot be expected to shoulder the whole burden. The European members of the Alliance and Canada must all make an appropriate contribution.

In the defence review the Government decided to concentrate Britain's effort in those areas where we can make the most significant contribution. These are the central region and the Eastern Atlantic and Channel areas, together with the security of the United Kingdom and its immediate approaches, and our contribution to the NATO's nuclear forces. In these vital areas the defence review did 1451 not materially change the effectiveness of our contribution.

§ Mr. Cranley Onslow (Woking)

May I take the Secretary of State back to the important point about the reason for the Russians spending so much money on arms? Will he tell the House at what point in time this decision to spend so much more was arrived at, why the Russians took the decision, and why they have not revised it since?

§ Mr. Mulley

It is quite impossible, as Sir Winston Churchill once said, to give clear answers to why the Russians react in particular circumstances. Let me give some facts and figures that will be unpleasant to the Conservatives, because they are not prepared to take defence seriously and to listen to the facts on which argument should be based. Some members of the Opposition think that we are quite capable of defending ourselves totally alone against the whole of the world. I sense that from the noise made by the Opposition rather than their actual words.

Let me briefly give some facts and figures to demonstrate how significant the British contribution is. We keep an Army of four divisions in Germany, with a peace-time strength of 55,000 men which can be doubled quickly in an emergency. In addition, RAF Germany deploys a balanced force of strike, offensive support, air defence and reconnaissance aircraft.

NATO relies on the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force to provide the main weight of maritime forces in the Eastern Atlantic and Channel areas. Our contribution here numbers over 100 ships and some 26 squadrons of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Alone among the European members of NATO we operate nuclear-powered fleet submarines—the capital ships of the present day—nine of which are now in service. We are also the only European Power to contribute strategic and theatre nuclear forces to the Alliance's general deterrent.

These forces must be equipped with modern equipment if they are to remain effective against the improved Warsaw Pact equipment now coming into service. This re-equipment is a costly but necessary programme to which we devote very substantial resources. For example, our anti-submarine forces are being kept up- 1452 to-date with two new anti-submarine through-deck cruisers under construction, more nuclear-powered submarines and improvements to the Nimrod maritime patrol force.

§ Mr. Brotherton

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

No, I will not give way. I made that mistake before.

The Army is greatly enhancing its anti-aircraft and anti-armour capability with the entry into service of Rapier and Blowpipe, the procurement of Milan, and improvements in the Chieftain tank.

§ Several Hon. Members

rose——

§ Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Bryant Godman Irvine)

Order. It is obvious that the right hon. Gentleman is not giving way.

§ Mr. Mulley

The Royal Air Force has the new Jaguar and is procuring the Tornado multi-rôle combat aircraft. We hope to contribute also to a NATO programme for airborne early-warning aircraft, which will greatly increase the effectiveness of our air forces.

§ Hon. Members

When will there be a decision?

§ Mr. Mulley

We want to strengthen the cohesion of NATO, and we have made it quite clear that we wish to take a decision within the Alliance. No decision has yet been taken but I asked in December that a decision should be taken then. However, some of our allies wish the matter to be deferred.

§ Mr. Eldon Griffiths (Bury St. Edmunds)

On the MRCA Tornado aircraft, I understand that there have been considerable difficulties with the undercarriage. As so much of our defence depends on this particular piece of equipment, will the Secretary of State give us some information about how the difficulties with the undercarriage on that particular aircraft will be dealt with?

§ Mr. Mulley

The hon. Member is quite right—there have been difficulties, but I understand that the programme is now on time. My hon. Friend will deal with equipment matters when he replies to the debate.

There is no question but that the British contribution to the Alliance is a major one in quantity and especially in 1453 quality. The British forces are all professionals. They are supported by some 300,000 civilians. Their value to the Alliance is substantial. This is why our allies have looked with concern at the cuts we have had to make in the defence budget—because we play so important a role in NATO's plans and state of readiness. They are, of course, also concerned that we should re-establish our economy on a sound basis.

I turn now to the figures of defence expenditure, and I shall seek to put them into perspective and distinguish between fact and fiction. On the one hand, the Government are accused of cutting expenditure to a dangerous extent by the Conservatives while, on the other hand, some of my hon. Friends are inclined to argue that we have made no reductions of substance at all but have produced only paper economies. Obviously, as a matter of logic both views cannot be right. Yet, as is often the case, there is some truth and a lot of fiction on each side of the argument.

When this Government took office, we inherited a defence programme of worldwide political and military commitments which was beyond the nation's means and over-stretched the capabilities of the Armed Forces themselves. Yet, despite having cut the defence budget three times in their last year of office in 1973, the previous Government left us a programme that involved an increase in defence expenditure by 22 per cent. in real terms above its 1974–75 level over a five-year period. Plainly, those who framed this programme had lost touch with reality. One of the first decisions of the Government was therefore to initiate a defence review with the aim of bringing our defence spending more into line with that of our major European allies while maintaining a modern and effective defence system.

The effect of our decisions in the defence review and since, including the changes announced by the Chancellor on 15th December, has been to save a total of £8½ billion at 1976 Survey prices over the 1-year period ending in 1983–84. The release of resources on this scale must be recognised as a major contribution to our economic recovery.

§ Mr. Alan Clark (Plymouth, Sutton)

The right hon. Gentleman referred to the increases in defence spending projected by the previous Government. They timed them almost exactly to coincide with what in his earlier evidence he attributed to the preplanning of the Soviet Union, which accounts for its considerable increases now. Does that not show considerable prescience on the part of the previous Government?

§ Mr. Mulley

If the hon. Member will contain himself, I hope that I shall carry him with me when I describe in more detail the situation as it was in 1973 when the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham was in the Ministry of Defence.

§ Mr. Michael Mates (Petersfield)

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

I will not give way.

The savings, large as they are, have not had the disastrous effect on the defence programme so vociferously claimed by the Opposition, since the reductions have been matched by a corresponding reduction in commitments. Our contribution to NATO's central region remains as effective as ever before as a result of the defence review. Indeed, it was in this context that in a television interview Field-Marshal Carver made his much quoted remark, to which the hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham referred, of having reached "bedrock". We have not made cuts in this area since the review, and have no intention, in advance of mutual and balanced force reductions, of reducing the forces which are maintained in Germany in accordance with our Brussels Treaty obligations.

§ Mr. E. Fernyhough (Jarrow)

For 20 years or so I have been deeply concerned about the Brussels agreement, particularly with reference to the offset costs. In November we were told that serious negotiations were taking place. As these offset costs are costing us this year £600 million, are we to get the Germans to meet that bill, as we understood they would when the 1954 agreement was reached?

§ Mr. Mulley

The conduct of these negotiations is not directly a matter for me, but as soon as there is a statement, 1455 I am sure that the House will be informed.

The defence budget cuts announced in July and December last year amount to £200 million in 1977–78 and £230 million in 1978–79—12 per cent. of the total public expenditure cuts of £3½ billion then announced.

As I understand the Opposition, they would have preferred us to make much larger cuts in public expenditure. Defence expenditure represents 10 per cent. of total public expenditure, and the £430 million represents 3.8 per cent. of the previous defence programmes for those two years. I hope that hon. Gentlemen will remember the figure of £430 million.

I have been asked where the cuts will fall. We are still working on the final details for the next financial year 1977–78, but we expect that the savings will come as to between £60 million and £70 million from the works programme, and about £80 million within the equipment area by deferring planned expenditure on a range of items for all three Services, including an airborne early-warning aircraft on which a NATO decision has been delayed. The remainder—about £50 million—will be found by a combination of administrative and support economies.

§ Mr. Kenneth Warren (Hastings)

The right hon. Gentleman mentioned that he was going to delay work on an airborne early-warning aircraft. Which solution does he favour—the British solution or the American solution to that requirement?

§ Mr. Mulley

I say in short—and I hope to carry the Opposition with me in view of their proper concern about NATO—that I favour a NATO solution.

I have already informed the Secretary-General of NATO, Dr. Luns, of the defence budget reductions. I told him that our aim would be to make the savings in a way that would keep to the absolute minimum the effect on our frontline contribution to the Alliance. For 1977–78 there is not enough time to consult the Alliance as fully as I should like, but we shall discuss the outcome of our study as soon as it is ready. For 1978–79 there is time to consult NATO fully, and I have undertaken to do so at an early and formative stage in our study of the measures required. We are most anxious 1456 to have the views of our allies and to work closely with them in every way.

§ Mr. Neville Trotter (Tynemouth)

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

I cannot give way to hon. Gentlemen at the end of every paragraph. If I do so, I shall never get to the end of my speech.

One of the consequences of cuts in defence expenditure which worries hon. Members in all parts of the House is that for employment, especially at this time when unemployment is our most pressing and serious national problem. Almost all our expenditure represents jobs—directly in the Armed Services, or for civilians employed by the Ministry, or job opportunities in industry, especially in the aerospace, shipbuilding and construction industries. Therefore, any reductions must mean loss of employment prospects—roughly at the rate of one job for every £10,000.

The right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham and I know other right hon. and hon. Members on both sides of the House have been concerned about the representations made to my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister on these questions by the Chiefs of Staff and the wide and usually inaccurate publicity given to this meeting. I should like to make one point absolutely clear: there is nothing new or unprecedented in the Chiefs of Staff exercising their formal right of access to the Prime Minister. In recent years, this has happened on several occasions—in 1965, 1968 and 1970.

The Chiefs of Staff are invited to be in attendance at Ministerial discussions of defence matters, as the nature of the business requires, as, for example, in the preparation of annual estimates and the defence White Paper. I, of course, kept the Chiefs of Staff fully informed as discussions proceeded, and the Prime Minister readily agreed to meet them to hear their views at first hand.

As is the case with expert advice given to Ministers by their advisers in other fields, the advice which the Chiefs of Staff give to Ministers is, of course, confidential and in the defence field there is the additional problem of security considerations, affecting not only ourselves but our allies and NATO itself. Subject to these unavoidable restrictions, I am anxious for the fullest information to be 1457 made available and for the maximum amount of informed parliamentary and public discussion to take place.

§ Mr. John P. Mackintosh (Berwick and East Lothian)

I hope that before my right hon. Friend leaves this point he will tell us the broad lines of the worries of the Chiefs of Staff. My hon. Friends below the Gangway say that the Chiefs of Staff always have worries, but so has everyone who is running a service. We listen to the educationists and the health experts and so on, and we are also entitled to hear the views of the people who are chiefly concerned with our defence services. We do not want to hear any secrets. We want simply the import of their worries and to know why the Government believe that those worries are unrealistic.

§ Mr. Mulley

My hon. Friend is right when he says that there is a difficulty about defence. Expert advisers in other Departments that I have served—in education and transport—also do not make their views public, but of course in each of these areas there are many people who are not subject to any restriction and who put the case very persuasively, I am sure the House will agree, for more expenditure on their particular interests. The Chiefs of Staff are no exception to that.

They naturally would like more money spent on defence and they can make a strong case in military terms for doing so. But, as successive Supreme Allied Commanders Europe have made clear, their job is to advise Ministers on the military capability of the Warsaw Pact, and they must accept the political decisions being made by Ministers and Parliament. That is the position in this case.

§ Mr. Ian Gilmour

Will the right hon. Gentleman tell the House what he meant when he said that the Chiefs of Staff could speak for themselves?

§ Mr. Mulley

Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman never made an ill-considered remark in reply to a supplementary question. He will recall that I was reprimanded by the hon. and gallant Member for Winchester (Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles) at the time when I said that. Clearly, one accepts the position of the Chiefs of Staff. What I had in mind was 1458 that it was important that the Chiefs of Staff spoke for themselves directly to the Prime Minister. They are entitled, because of their special position, to have this right of access.

§ Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles (Winchester)

I am grateful for what the right hon. Gentleman has just said. Of course, we all appreciate the difficulty facing any Government in their relations with the Chiefs of Staff and how much can be made public. But does not the Secretary of State think that it would contribute to the serious debate in the House today on what is a serious situation if he would answer in broad terms the question put by his hon. Friend the Member for Berwick and East Lothian (Mr. Mackintosh)?

§ Mr. Mulley

I have done my best to do that. I shall be very happy to consider any ways of making more information available, but the hon. and gallant Gentleman reprimanded me for suggesting that the Chiefs of Staff should make a public statement. I am sure that he would not expect me to put them in an embarrassing position by saying exactly what their position is, but any question of our defences being dramatically below the level needed for the safety of the West is complete nonsense.

§ Mr. Emlyn Hooson (Montgomery)

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

If I am allowed to continue, I shall give figures to support what I have just said.

§ Mr. Hooson

If the right hon. Gentleman cannot tell the House what advice the Chiefs of Staff gave to the Prime Minister, can we take it that whatever advice they gave was rejected by the Government on political grounds?

§ Mr. Mulley

It would be very unusual to say. I would be tempted to quote what was said by Mr. Goschen to the Duke of Devonshire on these matters. It was much ruder than anything I would say about defence advisers. Military people, like educationists and doctors in their respective fields, can all make very strong cases for additional expenditure, and are very disappointed if planned expenditure is not carried out.

§ Mr. Mates

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

I must get on. I have already given way several times. To sum up, in the next two financial years——

§ Mr. Mates

rose——

§ The Deputy Speaker

Did I hear the Minister say that he was giving way to the hon. Gentleman?

§ Mr. Mulley

I will give way.

§ Mr. Mates

I am very grateful to the Minister for giving way. I realise that he has been interrupted in his flow. He said a moment ago that the Supreme Allied Commander had said that it was a political decision—that the level of forces should be decided politically, according to the strength of the Warsaw Pact. Earlier he said that the Government's policy was to adjust the level of our defence spending according to the level of the defence spending of our allies. What do the Government think is right?

§ Mr. Tom Litterick (Birmingham, Selly Oak)

My right hon. Friend did not say either.

§ Mr. Mates

The right hon. Gentleman said both. Do the Government think that we should base our defence policy on that of our allies, or that our posture should be decided on the basis of the threat from our enemies?

§ Mr. Mulley

I said neither of those things. I hope that Opposition Members will not seek to inject their speeches into mine. It is unfair to hon. Members on both sides to do that. I said neither of the things which the hon. Gentleman was trying to attribute to me, as he will see from Hansard.

In the next two financial years, in real terms at 1976 survey prices the defence budget will be of the same order of magnitude as in 1973–74 and 1974–75 —between £5,400 million and £5,500 million—although less than in the period 1975–77, when it was at an annual rate in excess of £5,600 million.

Our slow economic growth has meant that while we spend less on defence than France and Germany we still spend a higher proportion of gross national product than they do. As our economy recovers, as a result of the measures that we have taken, we shall be able to make a greater contribution to the Alliance 1460 while maintaining our aim of bringing defence expenditure as a percentage of GNP more into line with that of our major European allies.

§ Mr. Nicholas Fairbairn (Kinross and West Perthshire)

rose——

§ Mr. Mulley

I have already referred to the three cuts made in 1973 by the previous Government, totalling £250 million, which at 1976 Survey prices—the basis of the current figures—amount to £439 million. They thus cut in one year from a lower total a bigger sum than our post-defence review reductions over two years.

Although I was not aware of the 1973 secret intelligence reports, the increase in Warsaw Pact military strength and of Soviet technological capability must have been developing over a number of years and must then have been known. The right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham was in the Ministry of Defence at the time. He did not resign. On the contrary, he was promoted after the cuts to be Secretary of State. Nor do I recall Opposition Members noisily shouting that the security of the nation was at risk or that NATO was threatened.

I do not question the sincerity or integrity of the right hon. Gentleman in deciding in 1973 that wider national, economic and public expenditure considerations demanded a reduction in planned defence expenditure. I hope that he and his right hon. and hon. Friends will acknowledge that similar considerations may apply in present circumstances, particularly since the cuts are smaller in both real and relative terms.

§ Mr. Ian Gilmour

The Minister will remember that during the last Government my hon. Friends and I were continually criticised by Labour Members for spending too much on defence. The Minister should make up his mind: Did we spend too much or too little?

Secondly the right hon. Gentleman knows perfectly well that the reason why there were no cries from the Conservative Benches that our security was in danger was that it was not in danger then. The right hon. Gentleman does not seem to realise that if we cut something it meant that there was less for him to cut, not more.

1461 Thirdly, will not the right hon. Gentleman accept—because it is undeniable—that we left the forces of this country in far better shape than we found them, and in much better shape than they are now.

§ Mr. Mulley

I do not agree with either of those last two propositions. I ask the right hon. Gentleman to reflect on the phrase "bedrock—QED" which he used in his speech. If we are cutting below bedrock, they were a long way below bedrock in 1973, because in real terms the level of expenditure was less, and everyone knew that the strength——. The right hon. Gentleman smiles, but I suggest that his speech today was made for purely political effect, and that he did not believe in it.

§ Mr. Fairbairn

I have been trying to think up a simple question which I hope the Minister can answer. It is as follows. If the right hon. Gentleman accepts that there is no risk of NATO's attacking Russia or any of the other Warsaw Pact countries, and if he does not think that they are likely to attack us, or to want to do so, what on earth does he think they want their great build-up of forces in the West for?

§ Mr. Mulley

The hon. and learned Gentleman's views might find favour with some of my hon. Friends. The purpose of the forces on each side is to deter the other side from attack, just as at school the children who are less likely to return aggression are more likely to be subjected to it.

The record of Tory Governments in office is usually very different from their promises and protestations in opposition. This applies in defence policy as in many other issues. There is no reason to suggest that another Tory Government would be any better than the last. Indeed, I should be very interested to see the results of a secret ballot of Tory Members on this proposition.

Like the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham, I have spent much of my speech talking about money and policies. But we must not forget that effective defence depends on people. Despite our other differences of view, I am sure that hon. Members on all sides of the House will join me in paying 1462 tribute to the high standards maintained by the men and women of all three Services.

Since I took up my present responsibilities in September, I have taken every opportunity to visit units and establishments of all three Services. I have been immensely impressed by their enthusiasm, efficiency and high morale. Standards are even higher than when I was last a Defence Minister 12 years ago. I have seen the magnificent job that the Army is doing in Northern Ireland in extremely difficult circumstances.

I should like to join with the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham in paying tribute to the work that the security forces in Northern Ireland have done over the last year. It has not been an easy time for them, as the tragic casualty figures show, but we can look back on a year of solid achievement in the fight against terrorism. This has been marked in particular by the increasingly successful partnership between the RUC and the armed Services, including of course, the vital contribution made by the men and women of the Ulster Defence Regiment.

This year is only two weeks old, but already there have been serious attacks on the security forces, resulting, sadly, in the death of three soldiers. I am sure that the House would wish to join me in expressing sympathy for the families of those who died. These attacks serve only to increase the determination of the Services, which know that the work they do in support of the police is a vital contribution to the achievement of a peaceful and secure future for the people of Northern Ireland.

With the extension of our fishery limits to 200 miles on 1st January, the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force, together with the DAFS Fishery Protection Service, assume responsibility for policing some 275,000 square miles of sea. Three RN frigates and four RAF Nimrod aircraft are currently assigned to the task full time, in addition to the Fishery Protection Squadron. During this period the frigates will be relieved by patrol vessels of the Island class. The full resources of the Royal Navy and the RAF will continue to be available to assist in fishery protection if required.

§ Mr. Brotherton

Will the Secretary of State give way?

§ Mr. Mulley

So far we have only two weeks' experience of the new regime, but these policing arrangements appear to be working well. Forty-two boardings have been made and three trawlers have been warned for fishing illegally.

§ Mr. Brotherton

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

§ Mr. Deputy Speaker

Order. I must ask the hon. Member for Louth (Mr. Brotherton) to contain himself.

§ Mr. Mulley

I have already given way to the hon. Gentleman, with little reward to myself or anyone else.

The quality of our Armed Forces is demonstrated daily, not just in these two operations, but elsewhere in Europe where we share with our allies responsibility for the defence of Western Europe. The courage and professional competence of our Service men are second to none and although our economic circumstances require that we reduce our planned defence expenditure over the next two years, our forces will still make a substantial and valued contribution to NATO. It is the Government's intention that they should continue to do so.

I believe, therefore, that we are proceeding on the right lines in the best interests of the nation in present circumstances. This debate is essentially about the choice between the Government's defence policy and that proposed by the Opposition, with all its irresponsibility and unsubstantiated allegations. I ask tall my right hon. and hon. Friends to reject the Conservative policy by voting against the motion.

§ Sir John Hall (Wycombe)

On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. In the light of the speech we have just heard, would I be in order in asking leave to move a further amendment to reduce the salary of the Secretary of State to £1?

§ Mr. Deputy Speaker

No.

§ Mr. J. Enoch Powell (Down, South)

Almost at the end of his speech, the Secretary of State referred to the Province of this country in which I have the honour to represent a constituency. Certainly no hon. Member for a Northern Ireland constituency could approach any proposals or decisions regarding the Armed Forces 1464 without inevitably thinking first of the possible impact on Northern Ireland.

My colleagues and I acknowledge that in handling the civil portion of the decisions announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer before Christmas the Government took particular account of the special circumstances of Northern Ireland and tempered the wind in their application to the Province. We look to the Government to ensure that on the military side also the special circumstances in Northern Ireland are taken into account in considering the impact upon employment and the economy generally.

I can offer one positive suggestion if the Secretary of State is looking for increased efficiency and savings from that quarter. We have welcomed the decision to increase the full-time element of the UDR, to which the right hon. Gentleman paid tribute, but have been disappointed by the rate at which that decision, which was announced many months ago, has been implemented. I think the Secretary of State will find that a considerable redistribution of the load and a considerable genuine economy could be made in Northern Ireland when a larger rôle can be discharged by the UDR in the very areas and for the very purposes for which it is designed.

The UDR cannot discharge that rôle fully unless its full-time element is considerably larger than at present. The Secretary of State will be serving his own budgetary purposes as well as increasing the efficiency of the security forces in Northern Ireland if he will accelerate and pay special attention to increasing the full-time element in the UDR.

My colleagues and I have often felt that debates are particularly unsatisfactory when they are in reality motions of censure upon the Government and turn upon major matters of policy but yet the wording of the motions before the House gives no indication—and is designed to give no indication—of the alternatives between which a decision is intended. Certainly the motion that is being technically debated this afternoon is no exception.

I should be the first to admit that the prospect of halving the salary of the Secretary of State or of any other Minister is an appetising one; and I must tell the right hon. Gentleman that, if he were dependent for the maintenance of his 1465 salary upon his performance at the Dispatch Box, one would have fears after this afternoon for its size in the coming months. Nevertheless, it is not good enough for us to be debating crucial matters of defence without having before us on the Order Paper, even in outline—here I disagree with what were almost the concluding words of the right hon. Gentleman—the alternative proposition that is being presented to us.

On a Supply Day, when the subject is chosen by Her Majesty's Opposition, the Order Paper is free. There is nothing to prevent—indeed, there is every reason in favour of it—Her Majesty's Opposition from placing upon the Order Paper an outline of their own intentions and of what would be their alternative proposals, so as to test the feeling of the House and enable the House to address itself to a genuine question.

§ Mr. Ian Gilmour

The right hon. Gentleman must know that the Government can always table an amendment to a motion that is put forward by the Opposition. Therefore, there would not be an opportunity to test the opinion